After watching Rickie Fowler rejoin the winner’s circle for the first time in over four years at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, next up on the PGA TOUR calendar is the John Deere Classic. Outside of 2020, when this event was cancelled due to the Coronavirus pandemic, TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, Bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois, has hosted every John Deere Classic since the year 2000. Last year, J.T. Poston won this tournament by three strokes, finishing at 21-under.
Similar to Detroit Golf Club this past week, TPC Deere Run is an easy test of golf that yields very low scoring. In fact, 10 of the last 13 champions at this unchallenging par 71 have cracked 20 strokes under par. While the fairways are wide and the rough is thin, there are many doglegs at TPC Deere Run and having extra distance off-the-tee isn’t necessary at this venue.
The John Deere Classic always comes down to a pitch and putt contest, and players who come into this event in strong form with both their irons and flat stick are the best targets. Of the last five winners at TPC Deere Run, three have finished the event top-10 in SG: Approach and three have either lead their field or finished runner-up in SG: Putting.
Excellent par-4 players also need to be our primary targets for the John Deere Classic, specifically golfers who are efficient on 400-450-yard par 4s, with five of the 11 par 4s at TPC Deere Run landing in this range. At each of the last four John Deere Classics, the player to come out on top has led their fields in par-4 efficiency and ranked top-five in efficiency on the 400-450-yard par-4s of TPC Deere Run.
While the John Deere Classic is hosting one of the weakest fields of the season – with only two of the top-30 ranked golfers in the world competing – there is still a plethora of appealing value plays to choose from on DraftKings and below, I have featured four of my favorite options that are priced under $7.5K.
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Callum Tarren ($7,300) – Tarren impressed in his John Deere Classic debut last year with a T6 finish and certainly has the potential for another great showing at TPC Deere Run this week. The English professional is coming off a T29 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic – which marked his fifth made cut in his last six starts – and he put on a show as a ball-striker during this finish, leading the field with a career-high 12.5 strokes from tee-to-green. However, Tarren’s putter held him back from contending, with him ranking dead last in the field in SG: Putting.
Tarren’s putting can only improve from this outing and there is absolutely reason to believe his flat stick can be resurrected on these Bentgrass greens at TPC Deere Run. Not only did the 32-year-old gain 4.3 strokes on these greens last year, but he ranks 15th in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses that present Bentgrass putting surfaces. Tarren has supplied three top-30 finishes in only four attempts at venues with Bentgrasss greens this season and is far too cheap for his upside this week.
Lucas Glover ($7,200) – Glover was in the mix for a win this past weekend, posting a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, marking his second top-20 finish in his last three starts. During this finish, Glover gained strokes in every major category, including 6.1 strokes on approach and 5.4 strokes with his putter, both of which set new season highs for the former major champion. Considering his work on the greens has always been his downfall, Glover’s huge performance with his flat stick was a very encouraging sign and he will now look to carry over this momentum to TPC Deere Run, where Glover just won by two shots two years ago.
Overall, the 43-year-old has made 8-of-13 cuts and produced five top-25 finishes at this par 71. While Glover is likely to be one of the most popular golfers on DraftKings this week, he is a prime example of good chalk, that simply can’t be ignored at this low salary. Carrying +6000 odds to win the John Deere Classic on the DraftKings Sportsbook, Glover boasts the best odds of any golfer that costs less than $7.5K for DFS purposes.
Carson Young ($7,200) – While this will be his debut at TPC Deere Run, Young’s game sets up well for the scoreable track and he is far too cheap for his current form. After a rocky start to his season, Young has made nine of his last 13 cuts at standard stroke play events, with seven of these finishes being top-30 results. This run of golf has vaulted the Clemson product up 259 spots in the world golf rankings to a career-best No. 210, and this recent success can be mostly attributed to some stellar work with both his irons and flat stick, with Young ranking 26th in SG: Approach and seventh in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds.
The 28-year-old also ranks eighth in BOB% during this time, making him a perfect match for TPC Deere Run. Young should thrive in his John Deere Classic debut this week and not only is a great DFS target, but is also a sharp investment for a top-20 finish at +350 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Justin Lower ($7,000) – At the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, Lower gained strokes in every major category at Detroit Golf Club – including 7.3 strokes on greens, which ranked third for the tournament – en route to a T8 finish. Lower has now advanced to the weekend in six of his last nine starts and ranks 29th in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds.
Furthermore, Lower’s outstanding showing in Detroit last week marked his eight made cut and sixth top-30 finish in his last 10 starts at venues home to Bentgrass putting surfaces. Overall, Lower ranks fifth in total strokes gained when we analyze this field’s past 50 rounds on tracks that feature Bentgrass greens. The 34-year-old is without question at his best on this green type and should outdo himself with a much higher finish than the T51 he recorded in his John Deere debut last season.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Pitch + Putt [$200K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
