The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
This week marks another full-field event on the schedule in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which is in its fifth year as an official PGA TOUR event. The Rocket Mortgage isn’t an elevated event, so a total of 150-plus golfers will be teeing it up this week. The field is stronger than it has been in previous seasons and right now eight of the world’s top-30 players are entered in the event. The field is headlined by world No. 9 Max Homa and world number 14 Tony Finau, who also happens to be the defending champion. Finau sits as the event favorite at +1200 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. They’ll be joined by Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, and new PGA TOUR member and PGA University graduate Ludvig Aberg, who looked stellar at times last week in locking up a T24 finish.
Despite the larger field, the cut this week will feature its normal positioning (top 65 and ties make the weekend) and this venue has featured a Friday cutline as low as five-under-par in the past. For DraftKings purposes, getting 6/6 players through the cut should prove difficult given the size of the field.
The Course
Detroit Golf Club (North Course)—Detroit, Michigan
Par 72, 7,330 yards; Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua
The Rocket Mortgage Classic replaced the old Quicken Loans event that was always played out East around this time of the season. The new event has found its new home at the North Course at Detroit Golf Club, a revamped and revitalized Donald Ross-designed venue that has roots in Detroit as far back as 1916.
In order to prepare for hosting duties on the PGA TOUR, many holes at Detroit GC were altered, lengthened, or even moved around. Some highlights of the reconfigured venue include a long par 5 which plays at 625 yards for the pros and a closing stretch of holes that includes a solid risk-reward par 5 (the 14th) with water guarding the green. Ultimately, even with the changes, this remains a very straightforward setup for players as the parkland setting (in the middle of Detroit) is very flat and offers clean lines to the flag on almost every hole — assuming you don’t miss the bigger fairways off the tee.
The venue played quite easy in its first season, as it produced the eighth-best scoring average on the PGA TOUR, with the field shooting an average of 70.113 for the week and the winner reaching 25-under-par. Some firmer greens in 2021 helped keep scoring higher that season, but the players had no trouble with the venue again in 2022, with the winner reaching 26-under-par — and a handful of names reaching 20-under or better.
The fairways and greens at Detroit GC rank out as easy to hit compared to the average PGA TOUR venue, and the overall average driving distance at this venue has been about 10 yards longer than at the average PGA TOUR stop. The driver will be a popular club this week and big hitters (who don’t spray the ball too much) have benefited from this setup in the past. While off-the-tee play isn’t necessarily the most important thing to focus on this week, two of the last three winners (DeChambeau and Finau) gained over 5.0 strokes off the tee during the week of their win.
However, despite the benefits of power at its core, this event (like last week) will be a putting contest. Nate Lashley proved that you don’t have to be a big hitter to find success in Detroit, as he rode a +9.1 putting week into his first PGA TOUR win in 2019, getting to 25-under par that season — despite ranking just 44th in driving distance and gaining less than a stroke off-the-tee. Lashley used superior iron play to give himself a ton of mid-to-short range putts that season and other names like Troy Merritt and Kevin Kisner have found success at Detroit GC with a similar formula.
For fantasy players looking at possible correlations between this venue and others on the PGA TOUR, looking at results from other Donald Ross-designed venues may be something to note. Pinehurst No. 2, Plainview, East Lake, and Sedgefield (host of the upcoming Wyndham Championship) are all Ross designs and past leaderboards from those venues are worth giving a quick glance over before making final decisions for the week.
2023 Weather Outlook: The weather this week may mirror the weather we saw last week. temperatures don’t look like they will be overly hot with highs in the low 80s set for the first two days. Some precipitation is forecasted for Friday (and also earlier in the week on Monday and Tuesday) and that should make the course play more receptive. If softer greens materialize, that may actually favor the shorter hitters who will be able to hold more greens on their longer approaches and give themselves more shots at birdie over the long haul. Wind isn’t likely to be much of a factor with 7-9 mph winds forecasted for both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Last 5 winners
2022—Tony Finau at 26-under (over Cameron Young, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Cantlay 21-under)
**other notables include Stephan Jaeger fifth, Tom Kim seventh, Cameron Davis T14
2021—Cameron Davis at 18-under (over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann playoff)
**other notables include Chris Kirk T12, Alex Noren T4
2020—Bryson DeChambeau at 23-under (over Matthew Wolff 20-under)
**other notables include Joaquin Niemann and Patrick Reed T5
2019—Nate Lashley 25-under-par (over Doc Redman 19-under)
**other notables include Kevin Kisner third, Maverick McNealy and Webb Simpson T8
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2022 Winner: Tony Finau (26-under-par)
2021 lead-in form (win-T28-T13-MC-2nd)
SG: OTT—+5.9
SG: APP—+5.8
SG: TTG—+14.1
SG: ATG—+2.5
SG: PUTT—+4.5
- Bryson DeChambeau was in fine form when he came into this event in 2020, having racked up five top-10s in a row before breaking through for his win. It should be noted though that in 2019 Nate Lashley didn’t carry much form into this event before breaking through here for a big week.
- Cameron Davis also had two MCs in his last five starts before winning, so great recent results haven’t meant much to two of the past four winners.
- While SG: Approach is always a metric to lean on, Finau, DeChambeau and Davis were helped by their length off-the-tee and some superb on and around-the-green play. Davis gained 6.3 strokes putting and around-the-green combined, while Finau bested that mark gaining 7.0 strokes putting and around-the-green.
- From a venue perspective, Detroit Golf Club is a driver-heavy course and has been a great stop for the big hitters. The average driving distance of the field this week is approximately 10 yards above the PGA TOUR average.
- Wolff, Finau, DeChambeau, and Davis all stick out in terms of big hitters who have had success at this week’s venue, but Brandon Hagy and Bubba Watson (guys who also regularly reach 330 yards or more off-the-tee) also both placed top 10 at this event in 2021.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Hideki Matsuayama +1600 and $9,600
Comparables:
Austin Eckroat +5000 and $8,000
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Troy Merritt ($6,500; 2nd-2021; T8-2020): Merritt was the hard-luck playoff loser at this event in 2021. The veteran has played well at the simpler layout, grabbing top-15 finishes the past three seasons. His current form is not good but he did gain 5.4 strokes on approach last week.
2. Cameron Davis ($9,300; best finishes: win-2021, T14-2022): Davis won this event back in 2021 and had a solid defense of his title last year, finishing T14. He’s been on a roller coaster in 2023 but can score with the best of them and likes the layout.
5. J.J. Spaun ($7,500; best finishes: T8-2022): Spaun has played this event four years running and had ample success at this venue, posting a T8 in Detroit last year. He leads the field in SG: Total at Detroit Golf Club over the last four years as well.
5. Chris Kirk ($8,500; best finishes: T12-2021): Kirk’s done well on Donald Ross designs in the past. He’s finished T21 or better at this event now in each of the past three seasons and ranks out fourth in SG: Total at this event since inception.
5. Scott Stallings ($6,900; best finishes: T10-2022): Stallings has played this event four years in a row. He’s made the cut on every occasion and finished a career-best T10 last season. He comes in this year on a six-event missed-cut streak.
RECENT FORM
1. Rickie Fowler ($10,400; T13-T5): Fowler kept the momentum going last week, shooting 60 in round 2. He’s in incredibly good form at the moment and looks destined for a win soon.
2. Austin Eckroat ($8,000; T24-T10): Eckroat could certainly be a sleeper pick for many this week. His putter picked up steam at the Travelers and has now finished top-25 in four of his last five starts.
3. Chez Reavie ($7,200; T4-T25): Reavie was near the lead all week in Hartford but had to settle for a T4. He’s made five cuts in a row now and is putting at a very high level at the moment.
4. Aaron Rai ($7,800; T24-T3): Rai continues to impress from a tee-to-green perspective. He’s finished top 25 in three of his last four starts and looks like a player who just needs a few putts to fall to get into contention.
5. Alex Smalley ($8,600; T9-T25): Smalley is striking it well, and has now gained on approach in 10 straight starts. His T9 last week was his best result of 2023.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Matsuyama a solid core play
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600) has bounced back nicely from a neck injury that hampered him early on in 2023. The 2021 Masters winner gained over 8.0 strokes on approach at the U.S. Open and improved his putting last week getting into a T13 position at the end of the Travelers. He’s played this event twice prior and finished top-25 on both occasions. Austin Eckroat ($8,000) continues to impress and his strong off-the-tee game should play well this week. Doug Ghim ($7,400) is also striking the ball extremely well right now and at under $7.5k makes for an easy value target in all formats. Other potential targets for this week include Ludvig Aberg ($8,700 – see below), Nick Hardy ($7,300), and Carson Young ($7,000).
Tournaments: Morikawa makes for a solid rebound candidate
Despite opening with a terrible round of 74 last week, Morikawa ($10,400) was able to rebound with a 63 the next day and almost make the cut. Whether he can putt well enough to win an event like this is a legitimate question, but he’s been better on the greens of late and certainly has as much motivation as anyone in this field, having not won the PGA for about two years now. Underneath him, Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600) is another name who could bounce back quickly, as is Mark Hubbard ($7,500) who really only suffered last week from a few bad tee shots. Both men should carry lower ownership in large-field GPPs this week. Other potential GPP targets include Webb Simpson ($7,100), Greyson Sigg ($6,700), and Kevin Yu ($7,000).
MY PICK: Ludvig Aberg ($8,700)
It may seem a little early to go all-in, but I do think we’ll see Aberg be a force on the PGA TOUR sooner than later. The Swede earned his full 2023 PGA card as a result of his dominance in college earlier this year and after his T24 last week in Hartford, has now finished top-25 in three of his last four PGA TOUR starts. Aberg’s off-the-tee game is already showing signs of being elite — he’s gained over 4.0 strokes in each of his last two starts — but he’s also shown real upside around the greens as well, gaining 3.6 strokes last week on the more technical TPC River Highlands.
The 23-year-old’s progression could be rapid, and over the last three seasons we have seen numerous players make the jump from the college/amateur ranks and win almost immediately on the PGA TOUR. Matthew Wolff won in Minnesota (2019) in just his fourth PGA start of that season and Collin Morikawa nearly matched Wolff that year, winning the Barracuda just a couple of starts later. There is also Tom Kim who came over full-time after the U.S. Open in 2022 and won on his fifth start of the summer.
The bottom line is that Aberg has already shown us that he has plenty of upside to offer and will now get to go up against a weaker field and on a course where a long and straight driver of the golf ball (like himself) can potentially prosper. Aberg’s climbing in price every week, but still affordable at under $9k, and also still has a very bettable outright number at +4500 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s a decent spot to take a shot with the new graduate in a field where the talent thins out quickly after the first few big names.
MY SLEEPER: Brandon Wu ($7,500)
Brandon Wu paid off as a sleeper in Canada a few weeks ago (finishing T9 for the week) and now that we again have a weaker field in play, going back to him seems like a solid move. The 2020 Korn Ferry Finals winner has been a boom-or-bust DFS play for most of his time on the PGA, missing five of his last 10 cuts on the PGA TOUR, but also landing finishes of ninth and third over that span. Overall, Wu’s hit rate has been extremely good. He’s landed eight top finishes on the PGA TOUR since the beginning of 2021, and all but his T6 at the Scottish Open last year came against weaker fields like the one in play in Detroit this week.
Despite missing the cut last week, Wu was strong off the tee in Hartford, and has gained an average of 3.0 strokes in his last two starts. He’s also a perennial spike-putter, having gained 6.0 strokes or more with the flat stick in three of his last 10 starts — exactly the kind of upside we’ll need from a winner this week. It’s hard to say how much this matters, but some of Wu’s best results have come in Mexico and Puerto Rico, two spots where 2022 Rocket Mortgage Winner Tony Finau has produced wins. If the correlation holds, we may see Wu produce a big week in Detroit eventually as well.
At 7.5k he’ll be a great lower-owned target for big-field GPPs coming off the missed cut, and at +8000/+700 makes sense as an outright/top-10 play on the DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
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