The Bills officially break regular-season ground in their new stadium tonight, and to the manic glee of Bills Mafia everywhere, Josh Allen is already making excellent use of the new receiver Buffalo acquired in the offseason (Moore [sic] on that later). Detroit, on the other hand, must have a little whiplash on this short week; they crucially must figure out why New Orleans nearly came back and won last Sunday. Both teams are 1–0, but I came away considerably more encouraged by Buffalo’s offense than Detroit’s defense, which remains, at best, limping through practice week-to-week. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Bills vs. Lions prediction, preview
I think Buffalo’s passing game is, shockingly, due to improve on last year’s already excellent offense, which finished third in EPA per play. New acquisition DJ Moore expands what Joe Brady can ask of Allen, and the opener suggested Brady intends to gameplan for this plenty: Buffalo’s pass rate over expectation reached +1.1%, up from −3.0% last season. One game, certainly. But adding Moore and immediately throwing more aggressively makes sense together. Dalton Kincaid finally seemed to be deployed as we’ve all been hoping; he nabbed five huge catches for 130 yards against Houston last week.
Detroit’s coverage, meanwhile, is still hungover from last year’s injuries. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are still unavailable, and D.J. Reed joined Tuesday’s estimated practice report with a foot injury. It feels wise for us to hold off on any expectations for a defensive rebound until this secondary gets healthier. Instead, last week saw them move in the opposite direction. Against the cosmic storm that is Josh Allen, missing those safeties means the replacements must play great defense through both the initial routes, and then whatever develops for his receivers when Josh extends the play. That’s an exhausting assignment on full rest for elite NFL defensive backs, and we’re talking about short rest with replacement-level ballhawks.
I’ll be patient with Buffalo’s defense, because I think there was plenty to like in the Texans game. Houston scored 31, yet managed only 5.1 yards per play and 3.9 per rush with both David Montgomery and Woody Marks; both dudes who can create yards on their own. I’m not ready to say they’ve regressed just because of the 30-spot in Week 1; the Houston passing game looked like it’d have been effective against many great secondaries. New Bills DC Jim Leonhard is already tinkering away, changing the team’s coverage mix from last season; a steady improvement remains plausible, but the underneath communication needs urgent work already. Houston completed eight of 10 throws on digs and drags for a total of 111 yards on Sunday. Detroit’ll have Amon-Ra St. Brown working across those same areas early, and likely try to sneak Jamo on a breakaway slant.
Lions vs. Bills pick, best bet
Detroit’s offense looks like it’s in good position to field each week a unit that replicates last year’s ninth-place EPA offense. It certainly can’t get any better than that while the offensive line is compromised such as it is. Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller were estimated nonparticipants Tuesday. Goff will likely lose some possessions to pressure from Buffalo’s rush. Fortunately, Jahmyr Gibbs just rushed for 156 yards and forced 12 missed tackles, so he’s still every bit as lethal whenever the ball’s in his hands. Getting him involved alongside St. Brown on the underneath routs should afford Detroit plenty of opportunities to threaten Buffalo; all this quick stuff shouldn’t be too taxing on replacement-level protection.
So I’m taking over 54.5 at -118. Buffalo won’t convert every red-zone visit again like they did last week, and Detroit needed overtime to reach 31 Sunday; both scores get slight asterisks, in my opinion. Having said that, in the stadium’s new opener, Josh Allen will be conveniently attacking depleted coverage, and Goff will be looking for completions more quickly than usual. Things might feel rushed and sloppy for Detroit. I have Buffalo winning 31–27, with the Lions contributing enough offense to keep Allen chucking bombs.
Best bet: Over 54.5 (-118)
Projected score: Bills 31, Lions 27
