Do you like baseball? Do you like betting? Well, why don’t you read this article specifically written about baseball bets for tonight’s slate? What a happy coincidence that is.
We’re 24-15 (+8.3u) for the season. Let’s dive into Monday’s action on the diamond.
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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Orioles -1.5 (+120)
The Orioles are looking to wrap up a four-game sweep on Monday and the first three contests haven’t exactly been competitive. In fact, Baltimore has outscored Tampa Bay 18-5. You wouldn’t be wrong to say this is a microcosm of larger trends, either. No team in baseball has a better record on the run line that the Orioles in 2024, who have covered in a staggering 60.9% of their games. Conversely, no squad has covered on the run line less frequently than the Rays, who sit at 26-39 (40.0%) entering this evening’s action.
Corbin Burnes has been a massive part of Baltimore’s success, pitching to a sterling 2.26 ERA across 79.2 innings. The RHP has been even better in his last five outings, managing a 1.41 ERA with a 2.59 FIP. However, even if Burnes isn’t as sharp tonight at Tropicana Field, there’s a decent chance that the Orioles’ bat will simply carry them to victory. Baltimore leads the league in ISO (.287), wOBA (.383) and wRC+ (153) so far in June. The Orioles have clubbed an eye-popping 23 home runs in their nine games — seven more than any other team. That figure is also 20 more than Tampa Bay has registered, as the Rays sit dead-last in the American League since June 1 with just three long balls. Doesn’t seem like a fair fight, does it?
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Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers
Under 8.5 (-118)
In the simplest terms, this total feels too high for two teams that are struggling to score runs. More specifically, it feels too high for two teams that struggle to hit home runs. Over the last two weeks, Toronto and Milwaukee both rank in the bottom-five in baseball in ISO. The Blue Jays sit 26th with a mark of .115, while the Brewers come in just behind in 28th with a mark of .107. That doesn’t mean neither side is capable of an offensive outburst — Milwaukee’s lineup can be potent since the return of a healthy Rhys Hoskins — but it’s just harder to produce consistently in the modern MLB without putting the ball over the fence.
I think the presence of Jose Berrios is another major factor. The RHP is once again significantly outperforming his ERA estimators, something he’s seemed to accomplish pretty regularly over the past half-decade. In 80.1 innings in 2024, Berrios has pitched to a 2.80 ERA. In only two of his 13 starts has he conceded more than two earned runs. He’s been consistent and steady. Colin Rea is in a similar boat. While the 33-year-old’s 5.56 xERA is cause for concern, Rea’s managed to maintain a 3.53 ERA in his 12 appearances this season, and an even better 3.07 ERA when pitching in Milwaukee. Regression is likely on the horizon for both these men, yet I doubt these are the lineups equipped to do that damage. On Monday, Berrios and Rea keep it together and keep the score low.
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