The tool allows us to toggle the tease total to see how a play has performed against various numbers. Normally, I stick to the default of 4 points, but I dipped down a little extra for ORL-SA.
Teaser odds: +122
Orlando is a five-point favorite as of writing, so I’ve teased this one down a little extra to remove any doubt of a potential push on this leg.
In the 15 instances the Magic have been favored this season, they’ve won 11 times. In the few games where they’ve been favored after a loss, they are 4-2 straight-up. Also, this is only the fifth time Orlando is playing as a road favorite. Throughout the prior four occasions, the Magic have gone 3-1.
Then there’s San Antonio’s side of things, which continues to point toward a Magic win. The Spurs are 2-17 straight-up as home dogs and 1-13 when playing as a home dog after a loss. Last but not least, against the East at Frost Bank Center, the Spurs are a cool 0-7 as home dogs.
Sacramento is only a slight dog in Miami, but the four-point teaser gives a nice cushion in a favorable setting.
The Kings are 7-2 against the spread as road underdogs this season. Following a win, they’re 6-3 ATS when playing as a dog after a loss. Combine that all, and Sacramento has put together a 4-2 cover rate when playing as a road underdog after a loss.
Then, there’s Miami. The Heat’s worst work at home has come as underdogs, going 0-5 ATS in that setting. An 8-10 ATS record is a much better number, of course, but that’s still a rough cover rate when playing as a home favorite. What’s worse is the Heat are 4-8 ATS when favored after a loss. When in that situation at home, Miami is 3-7 ATS.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.