Right now, we’re on a heater. We’ve got “rizz” as the kids might say. I definitely used that right. Don’t look it up. After a 2-0 night on Thursday, we’re sitting at 13-4 on articles plays dating back to May 11. That brings our record to 30-18 (+13.9u) for the season as a whole. Exciting stuff!
Let’s dive into more picks and youth culture below.
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Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Angels ML (+110)
Allow me to point out the elephant in the room: The Angels don’t win games against the Astros. They’ve won only 27 of their last 86 meetings. Heck, for a long time, Los Angeles also didn’t win games with Ohtani pitching — hence the birth of the now famous Tungsten Arm O’Doyle tweet. But this season has been different. The Angels are 8-2 in Ohtani’s last 10 starts. As they should be. The right-hander has been amazing on the mound in 2023, maintaining a 2.87 xERA with a AL-high 35.0% strikeout rate. Most days of the week, Ohtani is easily the best pitcher in any matchup.
It’s not so easy tonight, though. Framber Valdez is incredible in his own right, a true launch angle savant. However, Valdez’s 2.38 ERA is only somewhat validated by a 4.01 xERA. The lefty is also giving up a career-high 8.9% opponent barrel rate. The cracks in the foundation are microscopic, but they are still there. I expect that Los Angeles’ lineup will be able to have some success against the southpaw on Friday, as the Angels are in possession of a 120 wRC+ when facing LHPs. That’s the fourth-highest mark in baseball.
Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants
First 5: Giants Over 2.5 Runs (+115)
In general, the Giants have been at their best in 2023 when facing a right-handed pitcher. San Francisco sports a 109 wRC+ within the split, in comparison to a 92 wRC+ when opposed by a left-hander. The main reason for this? The Giants happen to employ more left-handed bats than the average team and Gabe Kapler utilizes platoons about as well as any manager not named Kevin Cash. San Francisco enters play on Friday with the eighth-most left-on-right plate appearances in MLB, with said LHBs compiling a noteworthy 120 wRC+ in those 850 opportunities.
This is of extra importance this evening due to the presence of Dean Kremer. The 27-year-old has been extremely lucky through his 11 starts, with a 6.46 xERA sitting nearly two full-runs higher than his actual ERA of 4.58. Even with the good fortune, Kremer is still being absolutely crushed by lefty bats, as evidenced by a .336/.385/.496 slash line. In fact, among the 89 pitchers to face at least 75 LHBs in 2023, Kremer’s .425 expected wOBA within the split is the second-highest mark behind only his recently demoted teammate Grayson Rodriguez. Look for the Giants to score early and often.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
It would be an understatement to call Soto red-hot at the moment. Going back to the beginning of May, Soto is slashing .328/.494/.641 with a .313 ISO and a 207 wRC+ in his 85 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. For the purposes of this prop, Soto’s amazing on-base skills are actually somewhat of a deterrent, yet I can not get over how great a matchup he’ll draw on Friday evening.
Things have not gone well for Jameson Taillon in 2023. Even setting the injury aside, the veteran RHP has pitched to a robust 8.04 ERA across his eight appearances, a figure which balloons to an 11.30 ERA specifically in Taillon’s past four starts. As you might anticipate, it’s been left-handed hitters that have given Taillon the most trouble, as the 31-year-old has surrendered a .667 slugging percentage and .469 wOBA within the split. That’s a dangerous way to live when Soto is in the batter’s box.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.