The first season of the DeMeco Ryans era in Houston was a big success. After the team had gone a combined 11-38 over the last three years, the Texans won the AFC South in 2023 with a final 10-7 record. Houston blew out the Cleveland Browns in the first round of the playoffs but fell to the Baltimore Ravens in the second round. Still, it was a massive turnaround for the Texans and a season they should be able to build on in 2024.
Houston’s 2024 expectations are high. At DraftKings Sportsbook, they have the best odds (+105) to win the AFC South. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is heading into his second season as the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. He will have extra help in 2024 after the Texans made a trade for former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The moves didn’t stop there. Let’s take a look at what else Houston did this offseason and preview how they may fare for 2024 fantasy football leagues.
C.J. Stroud
At least for now, Stroud was a gift to the Texans with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He played in 15 games last year and ended his rookie campaign with 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. While not a true dual-threat quarterback, Stroud added 167 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Historically, quarterbacks aren’t fantasy-viable in their rookie season as they adjust to the NFL. Stroud didn’t get that memo and finished as the overall QB11. Heading into his second season, he has more weapons around him and another offseason of practicing the offense. This has resulted in his ADP skyrocketing up to the QB5 for 2024. Only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are being drafted ahead of him. It feels like he is doomed to fail from such lofty expectations, but it isn’t crazy to think he takes the traditional second-year step forward. It may be a slight reach at QB5, but Stroud likely shouldn’t fall below QB7 in drafts.
Joe Mixon
Mixon signed a three-year deal with the Texans in free agency. Last year, the Houston backfield was led by Devin Singletary, who carried the ball 216 times for 898 yards with four touchdowns. Rookie standout Dameon Pierce struggled in his second season and lacked the same consistency he showed in 2022. He finished with 416 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon should be the focal point of this rushing attack, just like he was with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The new Houston running back played in all 17 games last year. He picked up 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground, adding 376 more yards and three touchdowns from 52 receptions. The Texans have built up their offensive line, so Mixon’s fantasy value should be linear rather than downgraded. He was the overall RB5 in half-PPR scoring last season but is being drafted as the overall RB16 this season. That feels low, and he could be a steal in that draft position.
Stefon Diggs
Diggs was the biggest name moved in the offseason. His frustration with Buffalo’s shortcomings in the playoffs was apparent, but the expectation was that the front office would be forced to bring in another wide receiver to complement Diggs, not to trade him away. Now the wide receiver goes from having Josh Allen as his quarterback to Stroud but in a more crowded wide receiver room.
Diggs isn’t going to be the top wideout he once was, but he doesn’t need to be to have fantasy value in 2024. He has had six straight seasons with at least 1,021 yards and six touchdowns. Nico Collins led the Houston receivers with 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. Diggs likely won’t re-create those numbers alongside Collins, and he is being drafted as the WR20. Houston’s offense should be able to support all of its pieces in fantasy football, but Diggs sees a downgrade from what we are used to for him with his new team. This isn’t a cause for concern but a reminder to adjust your thinking for Diggs as the 30-year-old wears a new uniform this fall.
Nico Collins
Fantasy managers were waiting for Collins’ breakout season, which finally came in 2023. He developed an early rapport with Stroud, resulting in 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. These numbers nearly tripled the outcome of his first two seasons in the league. Collins finished last year as the overall WR9 in fantasy football behind Keenan Allen and above his new teammate, Stefon Diggs.
Collins should regress, but not back to the 400 yards and a touchdown that he was used to in his first two seasons. Diggs will eat into his target share, as will Mixon, other receivers and the team’s tight ends. Still, Collins should serve as a great complement to Diggs, and he already has a rapport with Stroud. He is being drafted as the overall WR13, which feels a little high with the addition of Diggs to the offense, so make sure not to over-draft him.
Tank Dell
Dell was the second-best receiver on the Texans last year. Although he played in only 11 games, he finished with 709 yards and seven touchdowns. Dell suffered a broken leg late in the season but is expected to be ready for 2024. We don’t know yet how he will factor into the passing attack for Houston. For now, the assumption is that Diggs will be the No. 1 wide receiver, with Collins at No. 2 and Dell coming in third. Dell is being drafted as the WR31 in half-PPR scoring. This feels like the correct range for him, which is a bad outcome, given how good he was as a rookie. If Diggs wasn’t traded for, then Dell would have more upside for 2024, but he should still be a solid role player.
Dalton Schultz
Schultz joined Houston on a one-year, prove-it deal in 2023, and it was lucky that he did. He was a reliable weapon for Stroud, bringing in 59 of his 88 targets for 635 yards and five touchdowns. Schultz finished as the overall TE11, which is higher than his TE14 a year ago. This year, however, the Texans’ tight end isn’t being valued as high likely due to the presence of Diggs losing him some targets. He is being taken as the TE14 this season, but it would be an injury to Collins or Diggs away from likely being a top-10 tight end.
Ka’imi Fairbairn
Houston’s kicker had a solid season despite missing five games. Fairbairn nailed 27 of his 28 field goal attempts and all but one of his 22 extra points. His longest kick of the year was 54 yards, and his lone miss was from over 50 yards. He is being drafted as the K5, and with the projected high-octane offense for Houston, he is expected to be worth the pick.
D/ST
While most fantasy managers don’t tend to care about which defense or special teams unit they roster, the Texans should be worth a look. Despite having a defensive-minded head coach last year, the Houston D/ST finished as the 15th-best unit for fantasy football. Things are looking up for 2024, as along with Diggs, the Texans added Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry and Azeez Al-Shaair, among others, to the defensive side of the ball. They are being drafted as the D/ST10 this season and are worth rostering.
