There are just three games left in the 2023-2024 NFL season. The Divisional round of the playoffs is in the rearview, and there are now four teams left in the Super Bowl hunt. The Baltimore Ravens will take on the Buffalo Bills/Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, while the San Francisco 49ers will take on the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
Anything can happen in the NFL, and all four of these teams are capable of winning the Super Bowl. Let’s break down why each team in the Conference Championships could win Super Bowl 58.
San Francisco 49ers: +145
San Francisco earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC behind its 12-5 record and NFC West division title. The Niners had the bye in the Wild Card round and the scare from the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional round. Despite letting Green Bay stick around, San Francisco still emerged with the 24-21 victory.
As much credit as Brock Purdy deserves. running back Christian McCaffrey has had an incredible season. He played in 16 games in the regular season and had 1,459 rushing yards with 14 scores. CMC added seven more touchdowns and 564 additional yards through the air. San Francisco’s offense scored the third-most points per game, while the defense allowed the third-fewest.
Baltimore Ravens: +200
The No. 1 seed in the AFC looked good in the Divisional round coming off a bye week. Baltimore started slow against the Texans, going into halftime tied 10-10. The halftime adjustments favored the Ravens, though, as Houston didn’t score the rest of the game, and the Ravens scored 24 more points.
The main reason that Baltimore can win the Super Bowl is because they have an MVP frontrunner at quarterback. Lamar Jackson finished the regular season with 3,678 passing yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 16 games. He added 821 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. The offense scored the fourth-most points per game, and the defense allowed the fewest in the league.
I feel like this section can just say, “It’s the Chiefs.’ Kansas City has the most recent playoff success of any of the four remaining teams. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been a starter for the past six seasons, including this one. He has played in three Super Bowls so far and won two of them. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid are built for the playoffs, and their experience would help the moment not be too big for their players. They are less than a year removed from their last Super Bowl, and a win in the AFC title game against the Baltimore Ravens — who many consider the best team in the NFL — would likely see them as favorites ahead of the big game.
Despite the Kansas City offense having a down year by its standards, they still scored the 15th-most points per game in the league. The difference maker and why they are two wins away from a consecutive Super Bowl victory is that the Chiefs’ defense has been better this year than in years past. They allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.3) during the regular season.
Detroit Lions: +750
Detroit hadn’t won its division or hosted a playoff game in 30 years. They accomplished both this season with a 12-5 regular season record and an NFC North title. The Lions faced a familiar foe in a Matthew Stafford-led Los Angeles Rams team but picked up the win. Detroit then ended the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run with the 31-23 victory. The rebuild looks complete as head coach Dan Campbell has helped to turn this franchise around. It feels like they are already playing with house money, and that can make them dangerous when they have nothing to lose.
The Lions will have to rely on its offense if they hope to take home the Lombardi Trophy. Detroit scored the fifth-most points per game in the league, but its defense allowed the 10th most.