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Full list of Week 3 straight-up picks with confidence levels

We make picks for all 16 NFL games with levels of confidence ahead of Week 3.

Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers signals against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on September 15, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The NFL is back for Week 2 and we open with the Steelers and Browns squaring off in a rivalry matchup in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football. The week closes with the Giants hosting the Cowboys on Monday Night Football with the unexpectedly 2-0 Giants favored for the first time in this rivalry since 2018.

We’re back for another round of straight-up picks. The biggest piece of relevant news is Justin Herbert’s status. He injured his ribs last week on Thursday Night Football and he was limited in practice to open this week. The Chargers are the obvious choice if Herbert plays, but we’ll need to see how he progresses in practice this week.

As always, we pick each game’s winner, and then slot the picks based on confidence levels — high, medium, low, and no. A game with three asterisks (***) after it indicates a game where I’m picking the betting underdog to get the win. Last week, I was 11-5 overall with breakdowns of 4-1 high, 3-2 medium, 2-1 low, and 2-1 no.

High confidence

Chargers over Jaguars

Medium confidence

Chiefs over Colts
Bills over Dolphins
Vikings over Lions
Bengals over Jets
49ers over Broncos

Low confidence

Browns over Steelers
Bears over Texans
Ravens over Patriots
Saints over Panthers
Cardinals over Rams***
Bucs over Packers
Cowboys over Giants***

No confidence

Raiders over Titans
Commanders over Eagles***
Falcons over Seahawks***