The Houston Rockets were five games behind the Golden State Warriors on March 11 with just under 20 games to go in the season, and had just lost rising center Alperen Sengun for at least three weeks. It felt like Houston’s chances at the play-in tournament, which offers an opportunity to fight for a playoff spot, had come and gone. After all, this was a team that had been up and down the season as it mixed veterans with rising youngsters in an attempt to change the culture. Sengun had seemed to break out and will be in the running for Most Improved Player, but he was now sidelined. It felt like the Rockets might enter tank mode.
And then something incredible happened.
The Rockets have won 10 games in a row, closing what was a five-game gap with the Warriors to one game with 10 left to play for both teams. Here’s a look at what the Rockets did to get this point, how the win streak transpired and why Houston has already achieved something regardless of how this all turns out.
Rebuilding a franchise culture
In the three seasons prior to 2023-24, the Rockets combined to win 59 games. It is arguably the worst stretch of basketball since the franchise called San Diego home back in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The youth movement had stalled out and head coach Stephen Silas was clearly not getting through to the players. Something had to change.
Having a ton of cap space helps teams, but this situation was interesting. While Houston has always been attractive to prospective free agents due to the weather and the minimal Texas state income tax, this team was a dumpster fire. The Rockets weren’t going to be able to land a game-changing talent but they still believed they had that currently on the roster in their young core. They decided to go with solid veterans instead, looking to provide some type of leadership for the kids to look up to.
Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jock Landale were all brought it to shore up the overall roster but to also bring some professionalism to an organization that had slipped. Silas was let go and former Celtics coach Ime Udoka was hired. Udoka took the Celtics to the NBA Finals in 2022 and was a longtime Spurs assistant, so he’s been around winning teams and winning cultures in his time.
It was going to take a while for the Rockets to turn the corner but the evidence of change has been there even if the wins haven’t.
The young core steps up
Here’s a look at how Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. have performed this season compared to their previous years with the Rockets.
Sengun first two seasons: 24.9 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.2 apg, 52/27/71 splits
Sengun 2023-24 season: 32.5 mpg, 21.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 5 apg, 53/29/69 splits
The big man has become an offensive star, and was probably in contention to make the All-Star Game if the Rockets had more wins. He’s blossomed ahead of Landale, which is what Houston wanted all along. Bringing in that competition, while also adding Steven Adams’ insights at the trade deadline, have helped the young center.
Smith rookie season: 31 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 apg, 41/31/78 splits
Smith 2023-24 season: 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 45/35/81 splits
The power forward still has a ways to go in terms of becoming an offensive superstar, but the increased efficiency is a positive sign for the Rockets. It’s easy for a player like Smith Jr., who was so dominant in college, to get lost in the shuffle of a team where several isolation-heavy players are trying to become the top dog at one time. A balance has to be struck, and it appears the Rockets have found that late in the season. However, the biggest reason for Houston’s rise is the rise of Jalen Green.
Jalen Green arrives
The former No. 2 pick didn’t shy away from controversy before he even entered the NBA. Green famously blasted the city of Detroit shortly after claiming he’d want to live there as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Fair or not, Green was also likely seen as a cocky, brash teenager with no fundamentals as a G League Ignite product, a team set up specifically for NBA prospects to spend their gap year between high school and the pros. He finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year vote, with the players selected around him all finishing before him. It was easy to believe the Rockets messed this one up.
Green’s numbers have stayed relatively consistent but the difference this season is the balance he’s struck. Similar to Sengun and Smith, Green has been more calculated about when to defer to others and when to take over. And in the last 10 games, he has chosen the latter with breathtaking efficiency.
The guard is averaging 29.8 points per game on 51/46/78 shooting splits, arguably the best stretch of his career which has also resulted in success for his team. The Rockets are the top scoring offense over the last 10 games and second in offensive rating to the Celtics. They remain a top-10 team in defensive rating, which has been the foundation of their resurgence.
Benefits of the play-in tournament
Detractors of Houston’s winning streak will point to the schedule. The Rockets have played the Trail Blazers and Wizards twice each, Jazz, Spurs and Bulls. They’ve also gotten the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Cavaliers without Evan Mobley. The final stretch is much more difficult. While there are two more games against Utah and one more against Portland, there’s also two games against the Mavericks and showdowns with the Timberwolves, Heat, Magic and Clippers. There’s also one particularly important contest against the Warriors.
Golden State has the head-to-head edge over Houston in the season series regardless of the result in the final game, so the Rockets need to be a game up on the Warriors in the final standings. While there may be a temptation to tank the last stretch and secure a better draft spot, that would undo all the good work Houston has put in. It would go back to the very culture the Rockets have tried so hard to get out of.
Green should continue to put up big numbers, and the team is clearly ready to roll with him as the anchor while Sengun is sidelined. There’s a chance the big man returns for the last few games, especially if Houston doesn’t completely collapse. It’s worth pushing for the 10th spot, even if a postseason berth is unlikely.
These Rockets have never faced this type of “win or go home” scenario, so the experience would be vital. It would teach late-game execution, preparation for pressure situations and offer an important reward. Even making the second play-in game from the 10th spot would be awesome. And who’s to say the Rockets can keep riding this streak into the No. 8 seed? Houston likely gets bounced in the first round but that’s vital experience and more importantly, a sign of transition for the franchise.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rockets are listed at +380 to participate in the play-in tournament. Those odds will shift heavily depending on the result of the game against the Warriors, so it might be wise for bettors to stay away until that contest. Regardless of how this all plays out, Houston has arrived from the depths of a dark rebuild to make a surprising late-season push. That makes this season a success.