Pitching is better than it’s ever been in baseball, yet tonight’s 12-game featured slate still feels a little special. Heck, it almost feels like a repeat of Opening Day. There’s so many aces on the pricing list this evening, starting with Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) right at the very top.
Should you pay up for the Dodgers’ stud? Or should you look elsewhere? Let’s dive in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, $8,300 – Gausman has not been himself so far in 2024, as he comes into this start in possession of a 4.75 ERA and a 5.41 xERA. Still, the former Cy Young candidate has looked much better when pitching away from Rogers Centre, posting a 2.22 ERA within the split. Gausman also continues to be an above-average source of strikeouts, with 91 in 91.0 innings and an 11.0% swinging strike rate. Across the past two weeks, Seattle owns a league-high 31.6% strikeout rate and a 74 wRC+. If Gausman can’t make this work — he might be cooked.
Value
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, $7,300 – This is a pure upside play. We haven’t seen Baz pitch at the MLB level since 2022 due to injuries, but the former top prospect will be back in a Rays uniform on Friday. The RHP has looked decent at Triple-A, with a 3.93 FIP over 10 starts, yet Baz’s control issues are a definite red flag. Still, the 25-year-old registered a 28.9% strikeout rate in his 40.1 innings with Tampa prior to the ailment. He has the raw stuff to get batters out. It’s not like Texas has been lighting the world on fire lately, either. Across the last 30 days, the Rangers sit 24th in baseball in wRC+ (88).
INFIELD
Stud
Sal Perez, Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies, $5,700 – Perez has been in a bit of a slump since the beginning of June, but the backstop’s overall numbers remain strong. In 346 plate appearances, Perez has managed a 96th percentile expected slugging percentage (.546) and a 94th percentile expected wOBA (.378). Tonight, he’ll draw an opposite-hand matchup with Kyle Freeland ($5,000) at Coors Field. It’s not exactly a variance play, but it’s a great spot.
Stud
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, $5,500 – I can honestly say I don’t think I’ve ever started one of these articles by writing up two expensive catchers. Fortunately, you can use the aforementioned Perez at first base. Rutschman has been fantastic across the board in 2024, yet he’s clearly been at his best when facing a lefty. In 113 plate appearances within the split, the All-Star is slashing .400/.434/.629 with a 202 wRC+. Hogan Harris ($6,300) and his 5.52 xERA should be very afraid.
Value
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, $3,800 – Lowe’s flown under the radar in 2024. Part of it can be chalked up to another early-season injury, while some of it likely has to do with Tampa’s underwhelming record. Still, since May 26, the veteran infielder has seven home runs, a .971 OPS and a 171 wRC+ across 103 plate appearances. He’s been one of the most dangerous left-handed bats in baseball and he should present a challenge for Michael Lorenzen ($6,900) on Friday. Regression is also on the horizon for Lorenzen, who sports a 5.07 FIP.
Value
Brooks Lee, Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros, $2,000 – You simply have to jump on this salary while you have a chance. Lee is one of baseball’s top hitting prospects, and he was dominating Triple-A prior to his call-up. In 93 plate appearances, Lee had registered seven home runs and a .438 wOBA. He’s also a switch-hitter, which will give him some nice versatility in what sets up as a bullpen game for the Astros. What more do you need? He’s literally priced at the minimum.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $6,900 – What a tough break for Aaron Civale ($5,600). Having to make his Brewers’ debut against the Dodgers and Ohtani. Few pitchers have surrendered as many long balls as Civale in 2024, with LHBs in particular averaging 1.98 per nine off the RHP. For his part, Ohtani leads the NL in long balls (27) and sits in the 100th percentile in expected batting average (.335), expected slugging percentage (.674) and barrel rate (19.5%). He’s pretty good at this baseball thing.
Stud
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, $4,800 – There’s a couple things to consider with Santander. First and foremost, Santander is a switch-hitter that has generally preferred batting from the right-side. That’s been especially true in 2024, with the outfielder owning an .877 OPS and a 149 wRC+ against LHPs. Second, few hitters have been as hot as Santander since the beginning of June. In that span, Santander leads MLB in home runs (13) and sports a 160 wRC+.
Value
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, $3,600 – Rafaela’s overall offensive numbers won’t blow you away, but the rookie has been on fire the last five weeks. Dating back to May 31, Rafaela is slashing .321/.351/.500 with a 132 wRC+. That stretch includes 37 plate appearances specifically against LHPs, where Rafaela’s managed a .353 average with a 170 wRC+. Not too shabby. At this price, it’s hard not to love Rafaela in his matchup against Nestor Cortes ($8,500).
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
