It’s officially the best time of the year, as NFL Best Ball is back on DraftKings.
This format gives players a chance to draft a fantasy football team for a season-long competition that requires no active in-season management, but still provides a full season of drama and competition.
You can find all the details, scoring and rules for the format in this overview post along with links to the rest of our season preview content.
Below I list some of my most overvalued players based on ADP for the 2024 DraftKings NFL Best Ball season.
Check back throughout draft season for more content to help get you ready for all your Best Ball contests.
DraftKings NFL Best Ball is live! Click here to start drafting your team
Saquon Barkley, ADP 15.1, Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley’s ADP is way too high for his expected range of outcomes this season. Yes, he did sign a massive four-year contract with one of the league’s best offenses, but there are simply too many things working against him.
First and foremost is the fact he will be competing for rushing touchdowns with his quarterback, Jalen Hurts. Even with Jason Kelce retiring, the Eagles should continue running the “tush push” almost every time they’re near the goal line in 2024. Hurts had 15 rushing scores last season, and if he approaches that number again this year, it does not leave much meat on the bone for Barkley.
Next, is the fact that Hurts simply does not check the ball down to his running backs very often. D’Andre Swift saw just 49 targets in 2023 as the Eagles lead back, which was a career low for him. Barkley has received 57 or more targets in every year of his career thus far, with seasons of 73, 76 and 121 under his belt. He simply will not get that type of volume in Philadelphia.
Add all of this together and you are betting on a yardage and touchdown back at pick 15, which is far too expensive considering the caliber of wide receiver you’re giving up at that spot, along with the caliber of running back available much later.
Derrick Henry, 22.4 ADP, Baltimore Ravens
Pretty much everything said about Barkley above can be extrapolated to Henry. However, with Henry you also have serious age concerns, as he will turn 31 this January. The big dog has never been a passing game threat, and has always gotten there on yardage and touchdowns. That is simply not a profile I like betting on when you factor in DraftKings scoring and how important receptions are.
In addition, Henry will likely not see nearly as much volume as he was accustomed to in Tennessee, where Mike Vrabel was content putting the ball in his belly 30+ times a game, regardless of script. In order for Henry to pay off this second-round price tag, you are going to need something like a 15-touchdown season, which is something thats not likely to happen very often as his age.
Guys like David Montgomery, Zamir White and Zack Moss all have similar profiles to Henry and are going 40+ picks later.
Sam LaPorta, 32.1 ADP, Detroit Lions
LaPorta took the league by storm in his rookie season, finishing as the overall TE1. It was largely due to the fact that he caught 10 touchdowns, however, which we know is the most volatile stat in football year over year.
This is not a knock on LaPorta’s talent whatsoever, because he’s clearly going to be in the TE1 conversation for years to come. The problem is, he plays on a run-first offense and has to compete with a superstar WR in Amon-Ra St. Brown for targets. LaPorta caught 86 balls and posted 889 yards in 2023, so if he repeats those numbers but catches a few less touchdowns, this ADP will look pretty silly at season’s end.
There are very similar profiles you can bet on at TE, such as Trey McBride or Dalton Kincaid, who go 16+ picks later.
DK Metcalf, 32.1 ADP, Seattle Seahawks
This 32.1 ADP on Metcalf seems a little too rich considering his profile. Last season, the Ole Miss product eclipsed the 20-DKFP threshold just three times in 16 games, while posted 12.8 or fewer DKFP seven times. In the third round, I really prefer to bet on guys with massive weekly ceilings, and while Metcalf did go nuts against the Cowboys in Week 13 last year(40.1 DKFP), he simply does not do that enough to warrant a mid-third round selection in best ball drafts.
In addition, he’s competing for targets with an established veteran in Tyler Lockett and second-year breakout candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba, both of whom go well over 60 picks later. While there is a talent gap between Metcalf and the former two, the ADP gap should not be as wide as it currently is.
Calvin Ridley, 63.6 ADP, Tennessee Titans
Ridley’s situation got significantly worse this offseason, as he’ll be going from the Trevor Lawrence led Jags offense to Tennessee and second-year project Will Levis. Ridley made his return to the NFL last year after a year-long suspension, and was extremely boom or bust in his first year with Jacksonville.
He posted nine games of 10 DKFP or fewer, while going over 21 DKFP six times. While that’s usually a good profile to bet on in best ball contests, I am just skeptical that Levis will be able to support all of DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd and Ridley, especially when you factor in that newly signed RB Tony Pollard does his best work in the pass game as well.
A lot of things have to go right for Ridley to justify this ADP, and there are plenty of other good players in this range you have to pass on.
DraftKings NFL Best Ball is live! Click here to start drafting your team
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Lan1228) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
