Up next on the PGA TOUR schedule is the John Deere Classic. Since this event’s inception in 2000, TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois has been the home of the John Deere Classic. Finishing at -21 and two shots clear of the field, Sepp Straka won this event last season. The John Deer Classic is hosting a full field of 156 players this week and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first two rounds.
After facing an easy course in Detroit Golf Club last week, TPC Deere Run is another scorable venue that always yields very low numbers, with four of the last five winners at this par 71 shooting -21 or better. Being long isn’t necessary at this second-shot course, and TPC Deere Run’s biggest defense is that there are 76 bunkers on the grounds—plus, water comes into play on three holes. Avoiding this trouble and having a strong showing with both your irons and flat stick is the recipe for success at TPC Deere Run. Of the last five victors at this track, three have finished the event inside the top-10 in SG: Approach and three have finished the tournament top-five in SGP.
Lastly, targeting players who thrive on 400-450-yard par fours is a wise strategy this week, with this range of hole being the most crucial at TPC Deere Run. Five of the 11 par fours at this par 71 land in this range, and each of the last five John Deere Classic winners have ranked top-five in 400-450-yard par-4 efficiency during their victories.
Below, I break down four of my favorite DraftKings bargain plays for the John Deere Classic, that all cost less than $7.5K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K SUMMER SAND TRAP [$200K TO 1ST]
Nate Lashley ($7,400) – Lashley is at his best at birdie fests and is a great bargain at this price point. The veteran finished T21st at last year’s John Deere Classic and also finished T26th at this event in 2019. Plus, Lashley is on the heels of a T25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic this past week, which marks his fifth made cut and third top-25 finish in his last eight starts.
The veteran has gained strokes with his irons and putter in back-to-back starts and is poised for another quality finish at TPC Deere Run this weekend.
Jonathan Vegas ($7,200) – Vegas is coming off a T25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic—while gaining a season-high 4.5 strokes in the process—which is his third finish of T27th or better in his last four solo starts. The Venezuelan professional has advanced to the weekend in six of his past nine solo starts and ranks seventh in SGT2G and 12th in SG: Approach over his last 50 rounds. The veteran now brings this compelling form to TPC Deere Run where he has made four cuts in a row, including a T11 in 2021 and a T3 in 2014.
Vegas has gained strokes with his flat stick in each of his last four visits to TPC Deere Run. If his putter can come alive again on these greens he knows very well, the 39-year-old has a legitimate chance to contend in this weak field.
David Skinns ($6,900) – Skinns missed the cut in his John Deere Classic debut two years ago, but the veteran is in far better form this time around. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic this past week, Skinns turned heads with his ball striking, leading the field with 7.0 strokes gained on approach—which also set a new career high for the English professional—en route to a T17 finish. Prior to this, Skinns finished T21st at the RBC Canadian Open, while gaining strokes in every major category, except on the greens. Skinns has now made seven of his past 10 cuts and he ranks 23rd in SG: Approach and 47th in BOB% for the season. Additionally, the veteran sits at a career-best No. 133 in the world golf rankings.
In this undeniable form, Skinns should thrive at the susceptible TPC Deere Run and will likely come with little ownership, as a lesser known name on the PGA TOUR. For each of his last two starts, Skinns has been less than 1% owned in DraftKings Drive The Green contest.
Troy Merritt ($6,800) – Merritt finished T17th at last year’s John Deere Classic and has a ton of merit at this low salary. The veteran has made 6-of-10 cuts at TPC Deere Run and is in rock solid form heading to Silvis this week. While gaining 3.8 strokes on approach and 2.5 strokes on the greens, Merritt carded a T17 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week.
The 38-year-old has now advanced to the weekend in five of his past six solo starts, and Merritt’s success can be mostly attributed to his awesome ball striking, with him ranking ninth in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Merritt is clearly underpriced for his upside and can be trusted for all formats.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K SUMMER SAND TRAP [$200K TO 1ST]
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
