The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
The field this week will again feature 150+ golfers. With only two weeks to go until the Open Championship — and with next week having a big tune-up event on the schedule over in Scotland — many of the top names have decided to skip this week’s event. As of now, the top player in the field is SungJae Im, who sits 29th in the OWGR. Two-time Deere winner Jordan Spieth, who sits at 32nd in the OWGR is also playing. Behind him, names like Aaron Rai (T2 last week) and Jason Day, will attempt to give this field a little more star power.
Along with the players anchoring this event at the top of the board, there are also some intriguing young names in the field. Michael Thorbjornsen (MC last week) is playing again, as is Neal Shipley, who finished T26 at the US Open and T20 in Detroit. This event will also award two qualifying spots to the Open in two weeks, to the highest two finishers who have not already qualified for that event, giving players who haven’t qualified for the last major even more incentive. The regular cut rules (top 65 and ties make the weekend) apply.
The Course
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
Par 71 –7,268 yards; Greens: Bentgrass
This is traditionally one of the easiest courses the players see all year. The winning score at Deere Run almost always hits 20-under-par, or better, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see some players threaten for a 59. In 2022, JT Poston won the event at 21-under and gained over 4.5 strokes on approach and around the greens, while last year Sepp Straka matched Poston’s score and also had a great week with his short irons (more on Straka’s stats below).
As for the setup, TPC Deere Run is a shorter par 71 and features three par 5s, all of which play very straightforward, and are holes that must be taken advantage of by those planning to compete for the win. Of the past seven winners, only one (Jordan Spieth in 2013) has finished outside the top 10 in par-5 scoring for the week.
That part is obvious and any player who doesn’t score at least reasonably well on the easiest holes this week will fall behind quickly. The par 4s are also much more manageable than a typical par 71, as only a couple of them tend to play over par for the week. Seven of the par 4s come in under 450 yards in length, making distance off-the-tee somewhat irrelevant, but finding fairways and short iron play extremely important.
Winners at Deere Run don’t dominate off the tee from a power perspective but finding an abundance of fairways has been a trait of most recent winners. Neither of the last two winners are big hitters, but both Straka and Poston gained over 2.5 strokes off the tee, which set them up for a big week on approach.
For stat purposes, players who are gaining fairways at a high rate could be great targets this week, but putting and approach play is still where winners have tended to gain the most on the field. Deere Run features some of the purest greens on the PGA so we often see an overabundance of putts made from 15-25 feet. In 2022, players sunk 18% of their putts between 15-25 feet, the fifth-highest rate on the PGA.
2024 Weather Outlook: The weather doesn’t look like it will be overly warm, with the temperature only reaching the high 70s on the first two days. There could be some thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon which may hamper play, as well. Winds on the second day also look like they will pick up with gusts reaching 12-16 mph in the afternoon. If the Thursday afternoon wave does get a stoppage or can finish their round on a soft course, and avoid the Friday afternoon wind, we could have a decent wave split develop. The weekend forecast is relatively mild so we should see greens dry up and potentially be firm for Sunday.
Last 5 winners
2023—Sepp Straka -21 (Over Brendon Todd -20)
2022—J.T. Poston -21 (over Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Emiliano Grillo -18)
2021—Lucas Glover -19 (over Kevin Na -17)
2019—Dylan Frittelli -21 (over Russell Henley -19)
2018—Michael Kim -27 (over Francesco Molinari and three others -19)
Winning Trends
- 11 of the last 14 winners of this event had all played at TPC Deere Run in a previous year and made the cut at least once before their win.
- Six of the last seven winners had gained over 4.0 strokes on approach on one of their previous four starts, prior to winning the John Deere Classic
- Each of the past seven winners of the John Deere Classic played in the PGA event the week prior to their win at TPC Deere Run.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner: Sepp Straka (21-under par); 2023 lead-in form ()
SG: OTT—+3.3
SG: APP—+3.4
SG: TTG—+7.4
SG: ATG—+0.7
SG: PUTT—+6.8
- In 2022, JT Poston continued the trend of winners being very elite with their approach games at Deere Run, but also very solid off-the-tee by gaining 2.8 strokes OTT
- Straka didn’t play as well TTG as Poston but still had a great week ball striking and putted to his ceiling, gaining over 6.5 strokes on the greens
- Each of the last seven winners of this event has gained over one stroke off-the-tee, and over the last five years only one top-five finisher at this event has gained less than 1.0 stroke off-the-tee
- Overall, good weeks off the tee have set past winners up well at this event to take advantage of strong iron play and putting, where they do most of their damage.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adam Svensson +4500 and $8,200
Comparables:
Thorbjorn Olesen +6000 and $7,600
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change
HORSES FOR COURSES
RECENT FORM
1. Aaron Rai ($10,000; T2-T19): Rai led for much of the week in Detroit but faltered in the final round. He’s hitting a ton of greens and fairways but it’s hard to say if he’s worth this price, even in this weaker field.
2. Davis Thompson ($9,600; T2-T9): Thompson is playing some great golf and excelled in Detroit, gaining 9.2 strokes TTG. If he can keep it in play off the tee he’ll have a chance of bettering his finishing position from last week.
3. Sungjae Im ($10,300; T3-MC-T5): Im played fantastic all week at the Travelers, in his last start, gaining over 5.0 strokes on approach. There is a good case that he should be the favorite and most expensive player in this weaker field.
4. Sam Stevens ($9,000; T2 – T59): Stevens is killing it off the tee and has posted back-to-back top 15 finishes. He missed the cut at Deere Run last season but does seem likely to contend again this week.
5. Nick Dunlap ($8,900; T40 – T24): Dunlap gained over 8.0 strokes ball-striking last week and has showcased some serious upside with his irons of late. He’s got a ton of long-term upside and looks undervalued at under 9k.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Im makes for a good core play
Jordan Spieth ($10,500) has a ton of good feels whenever he comes to Deere Run, having posted two early career wins at this course. However, Sunjae Im ($10,300) has been the superior player of late and is coming off a dominant week at the Travelers where he gained over 5.0 strokes on approach and posted his third top 10 in four starts. Sam Stevens ($9,000) has been killing it off the tee of late and looks like another name you can trust up top. I also wouldn’t hesitate to look further down in cash games at names like Jake Knapp ($7,100) or veteran David Skinns ($6,900), who has finished in the top 25 two weeks in a row and was one of the leaders in SG: APP stats last week.
Tournaments: Hossler could erupt
Beau Hossler ($8,100) is one of the more intriguing targets in the 8k range. He struck the ball beautifully last week in Detroit off the tee and was one of the leaders in strokes gained OTT and fairways gained. He’s typically an elite putter so if that club bounces back he’ll have a shot at really outproducing this price. Adam Schenk ($7,700) could be a good buy-low target for big fields just based on course history (see above) but I also really like the chances of Joel Dahmen ($7,300) who has been finding fairways a lot lately and looks primed to compete at some of these weaker field summer events. Other names to consider include Roger Sloan ($6,300), Ben Kohles ($6,600), and Bud Cauley ($7,000 – see below).
MY PICK: Eric Cole ($8,500)
Cole’s game has finally started to show some signs of life again. The 36-year-old got hit hard by the regression bug early this year and missed four out of five cuts at one point after not making the weekend at the US Open. However, his T6 at the Rocket Mortgage showcased an improved off-the-tee game and the kind of iron and putting upside that allowed Cole to win Rookie of the Year last season. Cole has gained strokes off the tee in five of his last seven starts and finished T26 in driving accuracy last week, showcasing some improved control which should aid him around the tighter TPC Deere Run.
The big difference for Cole last week came with his irons as he gained 3.2 strokes on approach (his best mark since the Valspar in March) and led the field in proximity from 100-125 yards. Considering the improved driving and the number of short par 4s on Deere Run, there is a good chance he’ll excel again on this short but technical setup.
Cole’s moved up in price on DraftKings, but he’s still well under $9,000, and considering the weakness of this field, he’s a player well worth building around in tournaments. For betting, his current +5000 odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook is about the same price that last year’s winner (Sepp Straka) went off at, and makes him a nice outright value to look at this week as well.
MY SLEEPER: Bud Cauley ($7,000)
Cauley fits the bill as a true “boom or bust” play for DFS. From a stat and course history point of view, he’s a great fit for this week’s venue. The 34-year-old excels with his short irons (13th in proximity from 125-150 yards, last 50 rounds) and has played Deere Run six times in the past (all before 2020) posting top 20 finishes on three occasions, including a T8 finish from back in 2016.
His recent form is concerning as he’s now posted three missed cuts over his last four starts and did lose over 5.0 strokes on approach in Detroit. However, Cauley’s also gained over 3.0 strokes on approach in three of his last nine starts and did shoot a 65 in Round 2 in Detroit last week, where he finished T52. He also gained over 3.0 strokes putting and around the greens at Detroit GC, which is a positive considering he’s been poor in both those areas this season.
If he does manage to show some positive regression with his irons this week, we may see more sustained scoring from him at Deere Run, a course in which he’s excelled on in the past. He’ll be very low-owned in larger field GPPs, and for betting, his outright odds sit at +15000 making him a nice longshot this week to target on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
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