It’s a somewhat meaningful Tuesday in baseball, the Red Sox will finally have their home opener this afternoon. As you might have guessed, Boston was last on the list, meaning all 30 teams will have played in front of their home fans by day’s end. We’re not quite in the “dog days” of summer yet, but the regular season is now truly underway.
We have an 11-game featured slate on DraftKings this evening. Let’s dive in.
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PITCHER
Stud
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins, $10,100 – With high velocity pitchers going down left and right, I figure we might as well use Glasnow while he’s still available. The RHP has been decent to start 2024. His 2.63 xERA is better than his 3.18 ERA and his 13.6% swinging strike rate is nicer to look at than his 22.7% strikeout rate. All the peripherals are fine. He’s still Tyler Glasnow. The more interesting aspect of his viability is the matchup. The Twins’ offense has been terrible since losing Royce Lewis (quad) on Opening Day, with the team sitting 29th in ISO (.108) and 28th in wRC+ (74). Add in the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate (26.3%) and I’m suddenly very okay with dropping $10K on Glasnow’s services.
Value
Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals, $7,600 – In this range, I spent a lot of time weighing Harrison against Patrick Sandoval ($7,100). I think both have a chance to be very good on Tuesday, yet I’ll lean with Harrison in the better matchup. The Nationals haven’t hit anyone well so far in 2024, but that’s especially true when it comes to LHPs. To wit, Washington is slashing .197/.270/.255 within the split as a team. Don’t forget about the Nationals’ league-low .058 ISO, either. Harrison was roughed up in his last outing against the Dodgers. That doesn’t count. Look for the top prospect to get back on track tonight.
INFIELD
Stud
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, $5,900 – It’s hard to fathom that Olson could be better in 2024 than in 2023, but he’s gotten off to a very strong start at the dish. In 42 plate appearances, Olson possesses an eye-popping .425 expected wOBA to go along with a .405 ISO. If you want to isolate just his PAs against RHPs, Olson owns a 226 wRC+. That’s amazing stuff. Adrian Houser ($7,500) was solid in his first outing of the season, but he’s long struggled with left-handed bats. I think those struggles continue on Tuesday night.
Stud
Editor’s Note: Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Rockies.
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, $5,300 – Generally speaking, you want to be using the switch-hitting Marte against left-handed opponents. However, when the RHP he’s facing is Cal Quantrill ($5,000) at Coors Field, you can throw that rule out the window. Marte has been red-hot to start 2024, slashing .304/.358/.565 with a .394 expected wOBA in his first 53 plate appearances. On the other side of things, Quantrill’s been awful, despite not yet starting a home game for the Rockies. The veteran has allowed nine earned runs in his nine innings of work, registering a microscopic 9.3% strikeout rate. That’s not how you survive or thrive at altitude.
Value
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, $3,900 – Crawford has started the season in a major slump, but it looks like things are about to turn around for the Mariners’ leadoff man. Not only did Crawford hit a towering 404-foot home run in Monday’s loss to Toronto, but he’ll get the pleasure of facing Chris Bassitt ($8,100) this evening. Bassitt had his issues retiring LHBs throughout 2023 and things have not changed in 2024. The veteran RHP has faced 17 lefties in his two outings so far. Those batters have combined to hit .600 with a .722 wOBA.
Value
Editor’s Note: Nationals SP Josiah Gray (elbow) has been placed on 15-day IL. SP Joan Adon will start Tuesday vs. Giants.
LaMonte Wade, San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals, $3,600 – Wade is locked into the two-spot in the Giants’ lineup when the team is facing a right-handed pitcher. It makes sense. For his career, Wade sports an .803 OPS and a 123 wRC+ within the split. We have a large sample of data that says he can hit RHPs. We also have a large sample of data that Josiah Gray ($6,400) struggles with lefties. Gray currently owns a ghastly 14.04 ERA after a pair of starts in 2024, a stretch where the 23 LHBs he’s faced have combined to post a .950 slugging percentage and a .606 wOBA. For his career Gray’s surrendered 2.37 home runs per nine to left-handed bats. Woof.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $5,700 – It’s only been two weeks, but the fact that Mike Trout is looking like Mike Trout again should be a bigger story. It should at least have the outfielder among his position’s most expensive assets, yet Trout is about $1,000 cheaper than Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,600). I’ll take the discount. Not only does Trout sport a 220 wRC+ through his first 42 plate appearances of 2024, yet he’s also already collected a pair of stolen bases. For context, that’s ties the most he’s had since 2020. When he looks healthy, it does not matter who he is facing. He’s Mike Trout.
Stud
Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals, $4,400 – It’s been a mixed bag in terms of Lee’s entry to MLB. His numbers through 11 games don’t jump off the page — thanks primarily to a 57.5% ground ball rate — yet he is hitting the ball harder than most expected. In fact, Lee currently owns an 87th percentile average exit velocity (93.2). Specific to tonight’s slate, Lee’s viability is tied to his handedness. You want to use as many LHBs as possible against the aforementioned Gray, especially when they’re as reasonably priced as San Francisco’s lefty bats.
Value
Jarred Kelenic, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, $3,600 – Of course the Braves have unlocked Kelenic’s potential. The 24-year-old has started his tenure in Atlanta on fire, slashing .500/.560/.636 with a .414 expected wOBA across 25 plate appearances. It’s obviously a small sample, yet at his worst, Kelenic’s another left-handed platoon bat to stack against Houser. I should also mention, outside of teams playing at Coors, the Braves own this slate’s highest implied team total. So that’s nice.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
