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Fantasy Football Picks: Bills vs. Dolphins DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Pearce Dietrich gives his top DraftKings NFL Showdown picks for Sunday Night Football.

Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

DraftKings Fantasy Football features an AFC East showdown in Week 18. The DFS main slate may be in the books, but there is plenty of DFS action available for Sunday Night Football. Check out the NFL Showdown Slate DFS picks for the Week 18 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (BUF vs MIA)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Pick

Josh Allen (CP $16,500)

This is the new Bills. The once pass-heavy offense has transformed into a ground attack. Josh Allen throws fewer interceptions when he throws less often. That’s the theory. Allen is still turning the ball over, but the Bills are winning. The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and started handing the ball off to James Cook ($8,000). The change worked, but one thing did not change. Josh Allen gets a lot of the red-zone and goal line carries. He has 15 rushing TDs this season and a rushing TD in five consecutive games. In Week 16 and Week 17, Allen rushed for a touchdown twice. Add his passing stats to that, and it’s a no-brainer.

FLEX Plays

Gabe Davis ($7,000)

The Dolphins have allowed a 100-yard receiver in three of the last four games. The Jets could not muster a big receiving day, but they’re the Jets. Sub-par stats are kind of their thing. Each of the 100-yard receivers also scored a touchdown. Stefon Diggs ($10,200) comes to mind, but his NFL DFS presence is no longer the same. Since Joe Brady has taken over as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo, Diggs has been dialed down. They haven’t phased him out, but this offense no longer feeds Diggs. This offense is more balanced. Bills receivers are not a good source of volume, but they’re still capable of splash plays. Davis is one of the biggest boom-or-bust figures in the NFL. His status in DFS is legendary and infamous — depending on how a bank account was affected. Davis has the tendency to disappear, but when he appears. it’s big — two 100-yard games in the last five. He also scored a touchdown in those games.

Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($4,400)

The Week 17 value pick came through last week. Wilson didn’t return value by volume. He scored a touchdown. His stat line wasn’t very impressive, but it was his first game with a larger role and it was against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle ($8,400) will likely be out again this week. If Waddle plays, his role for the Sunday Night football game will surely be limited. Wilson is a solid receiver that situationally suffers. The Cowboys had better receivers. The Dolphins have better receivers. This is an opportunity for Cedrick Wilson to step up and prove his worth.

Jason Sanders ($5,000)

Miami has won a lot of easy games. They’ve lost the tough games. When the Dolphins are underdogs, they are 1-4 straight up. The Dolphins are three-point dogs at home. These AFC East rivals faced off in Buffalo on Oct. 1. The Bills trounced Miami 48-20. This has the makings of a long night for the Dolphins. And that creates an opportunity for an NFL DFS pivot. It’s difficult to differentiate lineups for DraftKings NFL Showdown slates. It’s difficult to find value picks on slates loaded with stars. There is a way if risk is accepted. Everyone is playing the flashy pieces and the boom-or-bust options. These offenses can be juggernauts. They can also struggle. After last week, Miami might struggle again. Perhaps, they do not finish drives. Miami’s kicker offers value and DFS differentiation.


Fades

Tyreek Hill ($11,200)

This is not a hot take. It’s a decision everyone has to make come Sunday night. Hill’s salary limits roster construction. This is a slate full of explosive stars. Hill is one of them. Selecting the superstar removes the possibility of picking several stars. The several-star build is better than the build with the superstar and a couple punts. Hill can single-handedly carry a fantasy football team. He can mercilessly punish the faders. If Hill has a weak game, the faders win. If Hill has a good game, at this price, the faders win. Hill must go off. The Bills will focus most of their defensive attention on shutting him down or limiting Hill. Few teams accomplish this goal, but Miami’s familiar foes have pulled it off in the past. And this time, Buffalo will likely only need to worry about one wide receiver.


THE OUTCOME

These teams are who we thought they were. The dust has settled. The Bills look like the Bills. The Dolphins are on the rise, but they have a lot to prove. It won’t be easy for the Dolphins with the slew of injuries they are wrestling with. The Bills have overcome their injury adversity and are ready to finally grab a Lombardi Trophy.

Final Score: Buffalo Bills 31, Miami Dolphins 23

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (BUF vs MIA)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.