clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Sunday’s Divisional Round

Garion Thorne gives his top studs and value plays at each position for DraftKings’ NFL Divisional Round slate on Sunday.

NFC Wild Card Playoffs - Philadelphia Eagles v Tampa Bay Buccaneers Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

We get a nice mix of games on Sunday’s Divisional Round slate. To kick things off, a battle of two teams that few people thought would make it this far back at the start of the season. To finish things off, a clash of AFC titans and a rematch of one of the greatest NFL playoff games of all-time.

Sounds fun, right? Let’s dive into it all.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Special [$500K to 1st] (Sun Only)


QUARTERBACK

Value

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, $6,000 - Mayfield is the cheapest QB available on this slate, yet that does not properly signify his upside. The former first-overall pick tore the Eagles’ defense apart on Monday, registering 337 passing yards, three touchdowns and 30.08 DKFP. It was the third time since Week 15 that Mayfield exceeded the 300-yard bonus and the second time in that same span that he’d cleared the 30.0 DKFP plateau. As for the matchup? It’s pretty damn good. The Lions have surrendered the third-most DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and just allowed Matthew Stafford to rack up 367 yards last Sunday. That included two touchdown passes of over 30 yards.


RUNNING BACK

Stud

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, $6,400 - There doesn’t appear to be an obvious “smash” play at running back this Sunday, so I’ll lean with the safety and volume of Pacheco. The sophomore is simply Kansas City’s bell cow. Pacheco logged a 92.6% snap share in a must-win Week 17 game against Cincinnati, then followed that up with 25 touches and a 69.6% snap rate in the Chiefs’ Wild Card victory over Miami. In another outdoor environment this weekend, I could see Andy Reid leaning on Pacheco once again. Why not? He’s averaging 22.0 DKFP across his last five starts.

Value

Ty Johnson, Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $4,200 - To be completely honest, the running back position is a wasteland below $6K on this small slate. David Montgomery ($6,100) is about as low as I’m willing to go. However, if you’re in a pinch and need to save some salary, Johnson will at least get on the field for the Bills. Johnson had eight carries and a pair of targets versus Pittsburgh and his job security is no longer in question, with Buffalo cutting Leonard Fournette from its practice squad earlier in the week.


WIDE RECEIVER

Stud

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, $6,300 - Godwin just feels too cheap, especially playing for a team that’s almost a full-touchdown road underdog. The Buccaneers should be in a position where they’re forced to lean on their passing attack. Heck, that might be the best strategy against Detroit to begin with. The Lions are a classic funnel defense, finishing the regular season ranking first against the run by DVOA. Godwin will likely be in line for double-digit targets this week, which is an enticing amount of volume for someone with as high a touchdown expectancy as the wideout brings to the table. Godwin sports a 37.9% target share inside the 10-yard line — the sixth-highest mark in the NFL.

Value

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $3,800 - It’s incorrect to suggest that Shakir is the Bills’ No. 2 target with Gabe Davis ($5,000; knee) unavailable — that would be Dalton Kincaid ($4,800) — but the sophomore wideout has had back-to-back big games with Davis watching from the sideline. First it was 105 receiving yards in Week 18 against the Dolphins. Then it was three receptions and a touchdown in his team’s Wild Card victory over the Steelers. Shakir notched a 67.2% snap share on Monday and could be tasked with a larger role in what should be a more competitive script this weekend.


TIGHT END

Stud

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,900 - LaPorta didn’t have a massive day against the Rams, yet he certainly didn’t look like someone playing injured. The rookie TE logged an 80.4% snap share, and while he finished the win with just three targets, LaPorta was able to translate one of those opportunities into a touchdown. I think bigger performances are on the horizon. Not only did Tampa Bay surrender the third-most DKFP per game to opposing tight ends this season, but it also conceded the most targets per contest to the position (8.9). Interestingly enough, LaPorta saw 11 targets when these two teams met back in Week 6.


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Value

Bills D/ST vs. Chiefs, $2,800 - Buffalo won’t be nearly as bad from a weather perspective this weekend, yet it’ll still be cold and it’ll still be a little windy. That’s just Buffalo in January. So, while the thought of starting a defense against Patrick Mahomes ($6,800) might seem odd, it’s ultimately the right move. The Bills forced a turnover on an NFL-best 16.0% of opponent drives during the regular season. Buffalo also racked up 54 sacks — fourth-most in the league. That’s all you can ask for in DFS.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Special [$500K to 1st] (Sun Only)


The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.