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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Wild Card Sunday

Garion Thorne gives his top studs and value plays at each position for DraftKings’ NFL Wild Card slate on Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys v Washington Commanders Photo by Kara Durrette/Getty Images

We’re here. We’ve made it to one of the best sports days on the calendar, in my humble opinion: Wild Card Sunday. A day to simply sit back and enjoy 10 consecutive hours of postseason football — and obviously sweat some DraftKings lineups.

Let’s break down all the action and find some studs and values.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Sun)


QUARTERBACK

Stud

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions, $6,500 - While Dak Prescott ($7,600) likely has the highest ceiling on this slate, it’s difficult to ignore the matchup that Stafford draws. I’m not talking about the narrative of returning to Detroit, either. Lions D/ST ($3,100) has struggled to defend the pass all season long, surrendering the third-most DKFP per game to opposing QBs and the third-most opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2). Across the team’s final three contests of the regular season? That yards per attempt figure jumped to a ghastly 8.9 yards. In an indoor setting, I’d be shocked if Stafford doesn’t flirt with the 300-yard bonus.

Value

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, $6,300 - I don’t think people have truly realized how good Love played over the second-half of the regular season. In fact, from Week 11 on, no NFC quarterback scored more DKFP than Love (180.9), as the former first-round pick also led the NFL in passing yards within that span of time (2,150). Love has been incredibly efficient in his last eight starts, averaging 0.62 DKFP per drop back — a figure that’s tied with dual-threat phenom Jalen Hurts. In a script where the Packers will likely be playing from behind, Love could be in store for a huge performance.


RUNNING BACK

Stud

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, $6,300 - Some of Jones’ value is dependant on the health of AJ Dillon ($4,400; neck), who did not play in Week 18 and did not practice on Wednesday. On Sunday against the Bears, with Dillon sidelined, Jones took 100% of the Packers’ RB carries, while also logging a season-high 81.7% snap share. It would be difficult to expect that level of a backfield monopoly if Dillon were to return this weekend, yet Jones would still be viable. Even with Dillon around in Week 16 and Week 17, Jones averaged 20.5 rushing attempts and 123.5 rushing yards. Add in a role in the passing attack, and Jones might actually be a little underpriced on this slate.

Value

Editor’s Note: The Steelers-Bills matchup has been postponed until Monday, January 15, at 4:30 p.m. ET due to inclement weather.

Leonard Fournette, Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,400 - I very much doubt I’ll be the only person to think of “Playoff Lenny” this week — especially with the early weather reports we’re getting out of Buffalo. It’s not that it’ll be cold, it’s that it will be windy. Very windy. As windy as that memorable game between the Bills and Patriots a couple years back where Mac Jones and Josh Allen ($8,000) barely threw a pass all night. Buffalo might have to lean on its rushing attack and Fournette could be looking at double-digit carries. If a couple of those are in the red zone, Fournette might be a key to this contest.


WIDE RECEIVER

Stud

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers, $9,000 - He’s the most expensive asset on the board, but he’s worth it. Dating back to Week 8, no receiver is even in the same stratosphere as the former first-round pick, with Lamb leading the NFL within that span in targets (137), receptions (101) and receiving yards (1,274). Here’s a stat: In his last 11 games, Lamb has scored 333.6 DKFP. That’s 100 DKFP more than any other skill-position asset. Playing in Dallas, where the Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per contest, I’m just not sure how you fade Lamb.

Value

Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions, $3,600 - For a team that uses 11 personnel as often as the Rams, Robinson is way too cheap on Sunday. Not counting Week 18 against the 49ers — essentially a preseason contest for both teams — Robinson’s logged at least an 85% snap share in each of his last four games. It’s a span where the wideout has racked up 29 targets and scored at least 13.0 DKFP every week. Plus, he’s a really inexpensive option to stack with the aforementioned Stafford.


TIGHT END

Stud

Editor’s Note: The Steelers-Bills matchup has been postponed until Monday, January 15, at 4:30 p.m. ET due to inclement weather.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,600 - Kincaid is an interesting asset. On the one hand, he’s sort of become Allen’s go-to target. In fact, going back to the beginning of Week 7, the rookie TE only has two-fewer catches (56) and eight-fewer receiving yards (555) than Stefon Diggs ($7,400). On the other hand, there’s the weather and wind concerns I mentioned above. There’s obvious risk in rostering passing game pieces in this contest on both sides, yet that could make Kincaid a bit of a variance play on this small slate. With his upside and modest price tag, it might be a risk worth taking.

Value

Brock Wright, Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams, $3,000 - Nothing too complex with this play. I have serious doubt that Sam LaPorta ($6,000; knee) is going to be able to go this weekend, which means Wright is the next man up. The Notre Dame product is more of a blocking TE than a receiver, yet four of his 18 receptions in 2022 were touchdowns. This game has the highest implied total on the slate. You can see where I’m going with this.


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Stud

Editor’s Note: The Steelers-Bills matchup has been postponed until Monday, January 15, at 4:30 p.m. ET due to inclement weather.

Bills D/ST vs. Steelers, $3,500 - Crazy wind, a dusting of snow and, most importantly, Mason Rudolph ($5,300). This is the trio of factors Buffalo’s defense has going in its favor on Sunday. In what projects to be by far the lowest-scoring game on the slate, Steelers D/ST ($2,600) is also viable — especially with Allen’s propensity to turn the ball over — yet Bills D/ST owns the best combination of ceiling and floor. Buffalo forced an opponent turnover on 16.0% of drives this season, the best mark in the NFL.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Sun)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.