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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for AFC Wild Card Saturday

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Saturday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Syndication: The Enquirer Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Playoffs?! We talking ‘bout playoffs?! Indeed we are as the NFL regular season gauntlet has eradicated those teams below the minimum cutoff. Does that mean all the teams are worthy? That remains up for debate but no team can be brushed off because it’s the On Any Given Sunday league in which a contender can morph into a knockoff while a previously regarded castoff can tilt a game with a touchdown return on a kickoff or score on a pickoff. With the stakes increasing, will coaches turtle up and dial up more handoffs or turn off the conservative white angel on their left shoulder and allow the aggressive red devil on the right shoulder to fire up the engines and get ready for takeoff? Hopefully, I can be of assistance this week, at least better than a customer rep at Microsoft.

Disclaimer: I have nothing against customer reps at Microsoft.

There are a plethora of injuries to monitor, so keep track of everything at DK Live.

DraftKings Sportsbook has CLE favored by 2.5 points on the road against HOU. The total is 44.5. KC is a 4.5-point favorite at home against MIA. The total is 44.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, $6,100 — Am I really wacco for Flacco in the year of our Lord 2024? Indeed I am. What a time to be alive. In his season debut with the Browns in Week 13, Flacco went for 17.16 DKFP. Since then, he’s run off four straight 20+ DKFP games. He doesn’t have rushing equity, but he’s attempted over 40 passes in four of the contests. In Week 16, he faced this Texans team and went 27-of-42 for 368 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. There will no doubt be adjustments from the Texans defense, but Flacco is a grizzled vet who has won a Super Bowl, so he should be able to adjust to any adjustments and won’t be flummoxed by the playoff atmosphere. He is the cheapest starting quarterback on the slate but he’s facing the weakest defense, Stroud is a rookie and the MIA/KC game could underwhelm.


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Running Back

Stud

Isaiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins, $6,400 — Pachecho has become such an integral part of the Chiefs offense because defenses are keeping safeties back to limit the big plays, blanketing Kelce and making the unit matriculate down the field. In Week 17, he rushed 18 times for 130 yards while hauling in all seven targets for 35 yards. With Jerick McKinnon on IR, Pacheco should continue to see the targets in the passing game, which increases the floor and allows for easier access to a ceiling. In addition, he has essentially monopolized the red zone looks on the depth chart, garnering 51 on the season. With the weather expected to be below zero this Saturday, and both defenses more than competent, this game could be tilted more toward the ground with Pacheco seeing a sizeable role.

Other Options – De’Von Achane ($6,800), Raheem Mostert ($6,700)

Value

Devin Singletary, Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns, $5,700 – The matchup is a difficult one, as the Browns have been solid against the run this season. That said, they have not been impenetrable, allowing 4.3 yards per carry while 10 teams have exceeded 100 yards on the ground against them. This is not about matchup schmatchup, though. It’s about volume and opportunity. Singletary is THE guy for the Texans currently. Last week, he received 88% of the snaps and, while he doesn’t see robust work in the passing game, he has 38 on the season and got seven and five in two games.

Other Options – Jerome Ford ($5,500)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, $6,800 — Well, I’m wacco for Flacco so you best believe that I’m coo coo for Cooper? Please donate when the pop-up notification appears. Cooper has missed the last two games, but he said he’s good to go for Saturday. In the three games he played with Flacco, he caught seven of 14 targets for 77 yards, four of eight for 109 with a touchdown and 11 of 15 for 265 with two touchdowns. That last game was against the Texans. Can we expect the same outcomes? Niet! The Texans are no dummies and they will make adjustments, but so will the Browns and Flacco. Cooper is the alpha receiver and he should see close to 10 targets in this one.

Other Options – Tyreek Hill ($8,700), Nico Collins ($7,000), Rashee Rice ($6,600), Jaylen Waddle ($6,500)

Value

Justin Watson, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins, $3,400 – I don’t really like any of the value receivers, but Watson would be the one I’d go with. First, he’s tied to Mahomes. That’s never a bad thing. While he only plays around 50% of the snaps, he is second on the depth chart in targets. Granted, he had an 11-target game back in Week 11, which skews things, but it happened so we cannot just dismiss it. Everyone was healthy in that game as well.


Tight End

Stud

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, $5,600 – Yeah, I’m fading Mahomes and Kelce. What could go wrong? If the projected ownership numbers come in low, then I may swing back towards them, but I’m thinking the ownership will be way over what I think is the probable outcome. Can those two go ballistic and put up the highest raw points on the slate? Indeed they can. I’m scurred.

As for Njoku, he has exceeded point expectations 80% of the time this season. Since Flacco joined the team, he has garnered eight, nine, 14 and eight targets while exceeding 100 yards twice and scoring four touchdowns! The matchup is a plush one as the Texans have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points on average to the position which includes the third-most receptions, second-most targets and fifth-most yards.

Value

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns, $2,500 It’s been an inconsistent season for Schultz, as he’s received fewer than five targets six times but has three games with double-digit targets. One of those came against these Browns three weeks ago, hauling in eight of 11 targets for 61 yards. Granted, Stroud did not play in that one. If I think the Browns are going to put up some points, then the Texans will have to respond aggressively. The Browns have had one of the best pass defenses in the league and have been stout against tight ends this season, but the unit has allowed the third-most touchdowns to the position.


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Browns D/ST at Houston Texans, $3,300 – The Browns are seventh in pressure rate, sixth in sacks and tied for second interceptions. Stroud has been great this season, only throwing five interceptions and getting sacked 38 times. That said, he’s still a rookie playing his first playoff game. He has really impressed me this season and I don’t doubt that he can ball out in this environment. That said, it also wouldn’t surprise me if he struggles, so it’s within the range of outcomes. I am bullish on the offensive prospects for the Browns, so if that scenario plays out, then the Texans could be one-dimensional which could provide more opportunities for sacks and interceptions.

Value

Chiefs D/ST vs. Miami Dolphins, $2,900 – This could be a ground-and-pound kind of game, so the opportunities may not be robust enough to rack up fantasy goodies. That said, if the Chiefs can get the Dolphins to drop back and pass more, the Chiefs D/ST is second in pressure rate and second in sacks. With the frigid temperatures, that could take some of the bite out of the Dolphins passing prowess. When these teams met earlier in the season, the KC D/ST racked up three sacks, a fumble recovery, scored a touchdown and held Miami to 14 points.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.