Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 4

Week Four. First off, last week is in the rearview mirror so no victory dancing anymore. Want the masses to continue to adore? Well, it’s time to pour out a cup of coffee and open up the browsers in order to explore and see what this slate has in store. Which players will constitute a solid core in order to put up the best score? Who should we ignore? How about those who provide a solid floor? The Bears no longer roar so X out DJ Moore? There are options galore so hopefully this article will not cause you to snore. Instead, may we all soar, ascertaining the heights of one Zsa Zsa Gabor. Just be aware of the volatility, so heed the teachings of Jesse Livermore.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are five games with a total of at least 45 points: MIA/BUF (53.5), MIN/CAR (45), LAR/IND (46.5), DEN/CHI (45) and LV/LAC (48). There are no games with a total below 40. There is one double-digit favorite - SF -14 over ARI. Eight games are within a field goal: JAX -3 over ATL, BUF -3 over BUF, CLE -2.5 over BAL, PIT -3 over HOU, CIN -2.5 over TEN, IND -1 over LAR, DEN -3 over CHI and NO -3 over TB. CAR, HOU, TEN and CHI are home dogs.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

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Quarterback

Stud

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $8,200 — Allen has been meh to start the season, posting 13.04, 23.66 and 22.32 DKFP. One of those games was against a tough Jets defense in the season opener while the other two were blowouts. Week 4 could be a Mt. Allen eruption spot, as the Dolphins and their high-powered offense take their talents to Buffalo. As of this writing (Wednesday), the weather forecast calls for clear skies, 72-degree temperatures and 8 mph winds. In addition, this game has the highest total on the slate at 53.5 points.

Last season, Allen torched the Dolphins in three games, including the playoffs. He threw for 400, 304 and 352 yards with eight combined touchdowns and only two interceptions. He also rushed 22 times for 144 yards. There is a new defensive coordinator in Miami this season, though, and Vic Fangio is well-respected, so I have no doubt that he will change things up. My best guess is that he employs a similar strategy to what he used against the Chargers in Week 1, which was to drop back in coverage and invite them to drive down the field via the run game. Los Angeles complied and rushed 32 times for 208 yards. While Allen has pared down his rushing attempts, he is still a threat and should see plenty of opportunities. Miami has allowed the highest percentage of red zone touchdowns allowed, and Allen should be involved in most of those.

Now, ownership is going to sky-high on all the players in this game but I lean towards differentiating somewhere else or tweaking lineup construction a bit. The floor/ceiling combo is just too high for me with Allen.

Other Options – Justin Herbert ($7,800), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400), Anthony Richardson ($6,700) if he plays

Value

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts, $5,700 — The aftertaste from Stafford’s Monday Night performance is likely still lingering in the taste buds of most of America. He was 18-of-33 for 269 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. Gross. He has yet to exceed 20 DKFP this season and, due to his lack of rushing prowess, is unlikely to do so again in Indianapolis. That said, the Colts have a very good run defense, which should tilt things more towards the pass. In addition, with Richardson expected back for the Colts, they will likely play fast and put up points, forcing the Rams to be aggressive. The turf is fast in the Indy dome and Stafford and his receivers should find the seams in the Colts zone.

Other Options – Joshua Dobbs ($5,000), Andy Dalton ($5,100) if he starts, Brock Purdy ($5,900)

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Running Back

Stud

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, $6,500 — Radio Raheem told us about the story of Love and Hate in Do the Right Thing. When hate is kicking butt, love looks like it’s finished, but stop the presses, love comes back and puts hate on the ropes...KO’ing it. Mostert went undrafted in the 2015 NFL Draft and has played for seven different teams. He came to the forefront of the fantasy consciousness with the 49ers in 2019 but injuries have often derailed his career. He is now back and kicking butt, as Mike McDaniel has schemed up an offense that would make Al Davis proud, and pays homage to the days of sorting players by SPD in Madden. Mostert has rushed 41 times for 240 yards and scored six touchdowns on the ground. He has also caught all 10 of his targets for 79 yards and a touchdown. The Bills usually skew their defense towards coverage and I think their priority will be keeping Hill and Waddle at bay. There should be plenty of seams and opportunities for Mostert to run wild once again.

Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), Tony Pollard ($7,800), James Cook ($6,300), Kyren Williams ($6,000), Zack Moss ($6,000)

Value

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers, $5,800 – There is some risk with his play, so keep an eye on the news during the week regarding the status of Cam Akers ($4,900), as he could start getting more involved. In addition, Mattison received eight and 11 carries in the first two weeks, albeit against two tough rush defenses in Philadelphia and Tampa Bay.

That said, for as meh as Mattison is, he received 20 carries and seven targets last week. Now he faces a Panthers team that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns. As long as he gets the volume, there should be plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies.

Other Options – Elijah Mitchell ($4,600), Latavius Murray ($4,700), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,100), Jerome Ford ($5,400), D’Andre Swift ($5,700), De’Von Achane ($5,700), Miles Sanders ($5,800)

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Wide Receiver

Stud

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $7,900 — Man, there are so many good options at wide receiver, with two priced over $9,000. I will likely be fading Jefferson and Hill, though, for better or for worse. Hopefully, for the better. My preemptive prayer: Lord, forgive me for I have sinned.

I think that there are players who can match or exceed the production of those two, at significant cost savings. Allen is one of them and has received nine, 10 and 20 targets to start the season. He is running routes from all over the formation and Herbert is peppering him with targets. With Mike Williams done for the season, Allen should continue to keep getting fed.

The matchup is a good one, as the Raiders have the second-lowest pressure rate and allow the third-highest completion percentage.

Other Options – Davante Adams ($8,000), Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800), Chris Olave ($7,100), Tee Higgins ($6,800), Puka Nacua ($6,700), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,500), Amari Cooper ($6,100)

Value

Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $4,000 – I’d expect Palmer to be one of the highest-owned receivers on the slate, and for good reason. Mike Williams is out for the year and Allen can’t get all the targets. Can he? Say Allen gets 20 targets again, that still leaves plenty for the rest of the crew, and Palmer should see the bulk of those.

Palmer has played in 36 career games, scoring eight touchdowns and exceeding 100 yards only twice. He runs a 4.5 40, so he’s not a burner and has a career 7.13 yards per target. If the ownership gets too high, there’s definitely merit for pivoting in larger-field contests. Marvin Mims ($3,900) is right below him and has a lower floor, but he probably has more upside.

Other Options – Josh Downs ($3,500), Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,900), Josh Palmer ($4,000), Adam Thielen ($4,500) if Andy Dalton starts, Tank Dell ($4,600), Elijah Moore ($4,700), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Jakobi Meyers ($5,500), Tutu Atwell ($5,500), Zay Flowers ($5,600)

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Tight End

Stud

TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, $6,500 – Although I expect the Vikings to utilize the run game more in this one, they do lead the league in passing play percentage by a wide margin at 74.49%. Hockenson has garnered nine, eight and 11 targets this season, so the floor is high. He scored two touchdowns in Week 2 and has six red zone targets on the season, so there’s ceiling.

Other Options – Tyler Higbee ($4,200)

Value

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, $3,100 – Thomas missed Week 3 due to suffering a concussion. He was at practice on Wednesday, but there’s still risk that he doesn’t play in Week 4, so keep an eye on the injury reports. If he does play, he could be busy because the Eagles are tough to run against and attacking via the tight end position is the likely least path or resistance through the air. On the season, the Eagles have allowed the fifth-most receptions and most touchdowns to the position.

Other Options – Donald Parham Jr. ($2,800), Dawson Knox ($3,200), Dalton Kincaid ($3,200), Gerald Everett ($3,600)

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Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Eagles D/ST vs. Washington Commanders, $4,100 – The Eagles are at home, favored by 8.5 points and get to go up against Sam Howell ($5,000), who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked 19 times this season. Philadelphia is second in pressure rate, eighth in quarterback knockdowns and fourth in hurry rate. All of this while blitzing at the sixth-lowest rate in the league.

Other Options – Bengals D/ST ($3,800)

Value

Panthers D/ST vs. Minnesota Vikings, $2,500 – The Panthers are the fourth-cheapest defense on the slate and are playing at home. They are middle-of-the-pack in both quarterback knockdowns and pressure rate, but PFF does have the unit ranked fifth in pass rush. I do expect the Vikings to run the ball more in this matchup, but they will still have Kirk Cousins ($7,100) throw the ball some. And Kirk Cousins is prone to having Kirk Cousins games from time to time. Not of the good variety.

Other Options – Colts D/ST ($2,900), Chargers D/ST ($3,100), Titans D/ST ($3,400)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.