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GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 2.
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Stacks
Game Stack: Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Allen ($7,900) — Stefon Diggs ($8,000) — James Cook ($6,100) — Jakobi Meyers ($5,300 - doubtful to play)
The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss to the Jets but enter week 2 with the highest implied team total on the main slate at 27.5, making them a prime offense to stack.
Vegas’ Defensive line had the third-worst pressure rating in week 1 and doesn’t have nearly the kind of talent that the Jets do in the secondary, which should make this a great spot for Josh Allen to bounce back. The Bills were fourth in DBOE (dropback over expectation) in 2022 and threw the ball 41 times in week 1 against the Jets. Allen’s rushing upside makes him a great DFS target nearly any week but his passing yardage seems likely to flirt with the 300-yard mark against the Raiders, who allowed WR Courtland Sutton ($5,700) to find the end zone in week 1.
The Raiders issues with Sutton make it seem unlikely they’ll be able to hold back Stefon Diggs this week either. Diggs put up a terrific line of 10-103 against one of the league’s best corners and posted an elite 33% target share in the opener. There is little doubt that the Bills will keep firing the ball his way in this matchup.
While Buffalo split the workload at TE in week 1, they made it known that this backfield belongs to James Cook ($6,100). Cook’s price has risen but he took 67% of the carries for Buffalo in week 1, while also showcasing true PPR upside with his 50% route participation numbers. The Raiders were allowing the Broncos RBs to go mostly unchecked in the passing game, ceding 10 receptions on 12 targets in week 1 to the position. Cook makes for a great DraftKings target, given both the 1.0 scoring and bonuses available for rushing and receiving.
Choosing a Raiders comeback play in this game is tricky. Josh Jacobs ($7,100) is certainly a target against a Bills defense that allowed 6.1 yards per carry and was bullied by the Jets RBs most of the night. However, if price is an issue, I’d be patient and wait to see if Jakobi Meyers (concussion - questionable) makes it back in time for this game. Meyers was brilliant in week 1 for Vegas, posting 9 catches and a 38% target share — both marks that bettered Davante Adams ($7,600) on the day. Meyers is the most cost-effective Raider by far but it obviously comes with the caveat that we may not know his status until Saturday.
Quarterback: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears vs.Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,600)
Fields ran 9-times for 59 yards in the opener and while you would have loved for him to find the end zone as a rusher as well, the fact he didn’t bust like so many other high-end quarterbacks still showcases how much value his rushing upside gives you for fantasy. The Buccaneers played at a relatively fast pace in week 1, and have an aging defensive front and a secondary that allowed multiple big plays to the Vikings.
Fields may not ever turn into an elite passer but it's clear his rush attempts are not simply going to disappear in 2023. When you add in the fact that he’ll have what should be an angry DJ Moore ($5,500) to throw to in this game — who dropped a 6-117-1 line against this Tampa secondary in late 2022 — it’s a great spot to target Fields for your GPP player pool and use him as a core play at quarterback this week.
Running Back
Top End: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers ($7,900)
The Packers won the game against Chicago but if you were watching with any interest, you could see that Chicago was winning the battle in the trenches when they had the ball. Green Bay allowed the 11th worst yards per carry against mark for the week and was also terrible at covering the Bears RBs out of the backfield — allowing Chicago RBs to tally 11 total receptions and the third-most receiving yards of running back group in week 1.
The Falcons Bijan Robinson was hyper-involved in the passing game for Atlanta, posting a 77% route participation rate and a 35% team target share. Even if those numbers go down, Robinson has a good matchup on the ground where he was able to average 5.6 yards per carry against a tough Carolina front in week 1. Yes, he may lose some red zone work to Tyler Allgeier ($5,500) but at under $8,000 against a weak rush defense, he’s an elite upside play for week 2.
Low End: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears ($5,500)
It was a pretty inefficient opener for Rachaad White. He played on 79% of the snaps and took 19 touches but, overall, was only able to produce 49 total yards. Despite the poor start, his price hasn’t moved at all on DraftKings and the matchup for week 2 may dictate better production.
The Bears defense couldn’t have been worse at covering Aaron Jones ($6,600) out of the backfield last week and White is a fantastic receiver in his own right and a player the Bucs will likely look to use more in a receiving role going forward. White won’t have many backers this week after his poor start, so for GPPs he makes for a solid mid-tier target and a player to use as a potential comeback option if choosing to role with a Fields/Moore stack at QB/WR.
Wide Receiver
Top End: Brandon Aiyuk San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5,800)
Aiyuk was named the offensive player of the week after he dropped an 8-129-2 line on the Steelers. The 4th year player had an elite 31% target share and also nabbed 53% of the air yards in week 1. Aiyuk is clearly leveling up this season and has a QB in Brock Purdy ($5,700) who is up to the task of getting him the ball in space, even against tough defensive fronts.
The Rams secondary was sheltered to a point last week by the Seahawks' pathetic defense, which allowed the Rams offense to be on the field the entire second half. L.A. still allowed DK Metcalf ($7,000) to get free for a TD in Week 1 and has a very inexperienced secondary, which Aiyuk should be able to take advantage of. With his salary still under $6,000, there is no reason to shy away from using the budding superstar again in week 2.
Top Value: Nico Collins, Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts ($4,700)
Nico Collins had a strong opener. He led the Texans with a 26% target share despite having just a 72% route participation rate. Further, Collins was the primary downfield target for the Texans, seeing 64% of the team’s air yards for the week, and led the team with 11 targets.
While fantasy managers would have liked a little bit more production from Collins given the massive number of targets he saw, the matchup this week is juicier and likely gives him a better shot at reaching the end zone. Indianapolis was seventh-worst in yards per attempt against in Week 1 and allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the WR position overall. Given the Colts strong defensive front, don’t be shocked if the Texans passing output increases this week and Collins matches or exceeds what he did in week 1.
Tight End: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks ($3,900)
LaPorta had a nice opener last Thursday against the Chiefs, taking in three catches for 38 yards. Rookie TEs often take a while to get worked into the offense but that trend seems like it is finally changing in 2023, as LaPorta saw a 17% target share against the Chiefs and had a very solid 72% route participation rate.
The Seahawks secondary performance against the Rams was straight out of a Freddy Krueger movie. They ceded the second-most yards to the tight-end position overall and also allowed the most yards to TEs in 2022 as well. LaPorta has solid after-the-catch ability and could easily break free in this game for some big gains. At under $4,000, he’s a great way to get cheap exposure to the Lions offense and certainly would fit in well with any Jared ($6,100) stacks you might be rolling out in week 2.
Defense/Special Teams: Atlanta Falcons ($2,900) vs. Green Bay Packers
We’re sticking with the Falcons again in this spot after they produced a very solid 12.0 DKFP in the opener. Atlanta didn’t get as much pressure as I thought they would against Carolina but they did manage to sack Bryce Young twice while also confusing him with some zone coverage schemes that led to two INTs. Don’t be shocked if you see similar results against Green Bay.
Outside of Aaron Jones ($6,600, questionable - hamstring) taking a couple of short passes for big gains, Green Bay didn’t have a ton of explosive plays in week 1. If they’re without Jones and Christian Watson ($5,900 - questionable), again, Love will likely be forced to throw into some tight windows to young receivers. Considering how well Atlanta’s secondary played in the opener (holding Young to 3.34 yards per attempt), it wouldn’t be shocking if they held up well in week two either.
At under $3,000, they’re also $300 cheaper than they were last week and will likely not be highly-owned in any of the big GPPs on DraftKings.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.