We’re two games into Week 1, and I’m ready to start calling to the masses to bring me your tired, your poor, your weary—etc. The fantasy football community has dealt with enough injury frustration, injury-reporting sketchiness, injury volume, and general personnel/roster mess-abouts that it already feels like setting a lineup is a vaudevillian event. Circus type stuff out there, right now, guys. A silly kind of bad.
So no pageantry this week, and even less so as we go throughout the season. It’s Friday, and Five Lists of Five is back like baggy jeans, man.
Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 1. Here are my other offerings for the week:
- Top five must-start wide receivers for fantasy football Week 1
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 1
- Top five players to stash ahead of fantasy football Week 1 (TK)
- Top five fantasy defense matchups in fantasy football Week 1 (TK)
Fantasy football Week 1: Top five FLEX players to start
Travis Etienne, New Orleans Saints (vs. Detroit Lions)
Detroit may make Travis Etienne rather busy in his Saints debut, and fantasy managers should be thrilled to put him in the flex spot for it. He banged out 1,399 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns in Jacksonville last season before heading to New Orleans this offseason. Kellen Moore’s a proven runner with an exciting production profile to play with while Alvin Kamara is ailing. Etienne sits at RB16 for the week against an RB17 draft price. I like him a little better than that (RB14).
Moore’s Saints played at the league’s fastest neutral pace last season, and that was when Tyler Shough was a rookie. Detroit’s offensive firepower can make keeping up exhausting, especially if Jared Goff starts picking apart New Orleans’s defense early. Etienne should get early carries while the game is naturally close. Checkdowns will be comfortably built into his route assignments, available there if Tyler Shough has to chase them. I like Etienne for a few receptions in this game, at the very least.
Alvin Kamara’s knee recovery makes that receiving work more likely to be Etienne’s this week, but Kamara will probably still play. Etienne caught 36 passes last year and scored on six of them—an outrageous TD conversion rate, certainly, and one I don’t expect to carry over Jacksonville. The point is that we all know what he can do when given the ball in space. Still, we need but a few ordinary catches—alongside, of course, his rushing workload—to suit this flex assignment beautifully.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Cincinnati Bengals)
Sean Tucker is doubtful with a hamstring injury, which means we should all be considerably more encouraged by Bucky Irving’s projected usage near the goal line this week. Irving didn’t receive a single carry inside the five last season. Not one. Getting even a couple against Cincinnati would give his fantasy afternoon exponentially-greater ceiling potential on Sunday afternoon.
I’d also like to see the healthy Bucky again. As a rookie, he forced missed tackles on 36.9% of his carries. That’s good for second among backs with at least 100 attempts. Then shoulder and foot injuries flattened 5.4 YPC into 3.4. The shoulder needed surgery, and by the time camp opened, Bucky was running around without restrictions. There remains an excellent runner here, so long as he’s returned to the form he was at before everything started hurting.
Cincinnati added Dexter Lawrence, so charging straight into the middle won’t necessarily be pleasant. Kenny Gainwell will take passing work from Irving, too. And, ultimately, I still expect Baker Mayfield to move this offense, with roughly 50 combined points anticipated on the board. Tampa Bay will have to keep answering whatever Joe Burrow throws their way all the same, and I’m willing to bet Bucky Irving will be a key fixture in that gameplan.
I mean, seriously: Imagine the fantasy day on the table if Bucky could finally stay on the field to finish a drive himself. Golly.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (vs. New Orleans Saints)
Jameson Williams logged six games with at least 18 fantasy points last season, and also logged six with a score below seven. Two of those were goose eggs. I understand the temptation to seek a more conservative, floor-heavy approach to your fantasy Sunday elsewhere, but I’m starting Jamo against New Orleans with last year well behind us. Detroit’s scoring potential is just too good.
The shorter routes we anticipate to be added in Jamo’s tree (which Jared Goff discussed this offseason) could help immensely. Williams’ average target traveled a gaping 12.86 yards downfield last year. Getting him the ball earlier would allow his ridiculous speed punish defenders in space after the catch, too. A slant in stride can become a nightmarish problem for the Saints’ secondary.
We are banking—hoping, praying, etc.—for that to express itself as an increase in volume on Sunday. Across 24 games together over the past two seasons, Williams commanded an 18% share, and New Orleans coordinator Brandon Staley prefers keeping safeties deep. Even with the underneath additions to his skillset, Jamo is still a vertical technician. A big afternoon could require patience. Detroit can spend several possessions working underneath before Williams gets his chance beyond the corners.
The Saints play a fast offense on the other side of the ball. Both offenses should stay busy this week, and it won’t be all Gibbs/ARSB/LaPorta. Jamo’ll get his share of Sunday supper. When he does, it’s usually a feast. He belongs in all lineups this week.
Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears (at Carolina Panthers)
Luther Burden was one of the receivers I wanted way ahead of his draft price this summer, and I’m ready for Ben Johnson to kick off the season by honoring my enthusiasm in droves! Of Burden’s 652 rookie receiving yards, 601 arrived in his final eight games. Chicago gave him more to do, and he promptly made the passing game more dynamic. All signs throughout the offseason have suggested they intend to keep giving him more work, more responsibility, and more opportunities to score points for his fantasy managers.
He finished third among 124 qualifying receivers in yards per route, with first downs on 11.7% of his routes. Those are awfully persuasive reasons for Caleb Williams keep calling his number. Johnson can send him across the formation, get him a clean release, and let Williams find him moving through space. And then, after the catch, Burden’s a blur.
Rome Odunze’s officially questionable for Sunday with a calf injury, so I expect Burden to get a bigger assignment. The appeal is still there whether or not Odunze plays. DJ Moore is in Buffalo, and the routes left behind give this offense room to feature its second-year receiver. Carolina’s secondary is really pretty vicious, and Colston Loveland will command throws of his own—it won’t be all Burden all the Time.
I’m still comfortable putting Burden around WR20, above the WR24 weekly consensus.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Put simply, I want Jaylen Warren catching the ball with one of these backup Falcons linebackers trying to tackle him. Warren forced 56 missed tackles last season, caught 40 passes, and finished with 1,291 scrimmage yards. That materially-effective toughness is why I always tend to overrank Warren in the preseason. He gets useful production out of his touches, no matter how much space the play alone generates for him.
Rico Dowdle is the obvious hangup, here, but he’s officially the RB2 on Pittsburgh’s depth chart, for whatever that’s worth. He will certainly handle plenty of Sunday’s carries. I even expect him to get some scoring chances, because committee backfields are cruel to fantasy managers. Still, it’s Warren’s receiving work which keeps me interested despite the division of labor. Kenny Gainwell caught 73 passes for Pittsburgh last season; he’s now on the Bucs, and Aaron Rodgers is without a safety valve. Warren won’t inherit every throw, there, but he should get quite a lot. We know how Rodgers runs his offense. Bonus points to Warren, simply because Rodgers already knows where to find him from having played a year together.
Atlanta arrives without Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., two first-round picks who’d otherwise make this a more difficult assignment for the Steelers’ backs. Without them in the second level, I’m betting they’ll scheme ways to get Warren outside the tackles, where Atlanta will have to set the edge with its replacements. I have him around RB23, ahead of his RB24 weekly consensus and RB27 draft price this week.
