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Fantasy Football Picks: Bills vs. Jets DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Bills and the Jets with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Hey. You. Come over here for a second.

[scans room for anyone who might overhear our conversation]

...the football was sort of bad yesterday, right? Don’t get me wrong, I was more than happy to make an indent in my couch for seven hours, but aside from a high-scoring affair at SoFi Stadium, the games were brutal. Bad quarterback play. Poor weather. It was sort of a slog.

However, Week 1 isn’t over yet. It still has time to redeem itself. On Monday, we’ll get a much anticipated rivalry game between the new-look New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills.

It should be a fun one. Hopefully. Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (BUF vs NYJ)


Captain’s Picks

Josh Allen ($17,100 CP) - You simply can not ignore the Bills’ pivot. When we talk about the fantasy upside that a mobile QB provides, look no further for an example than Allen’s performances in 2022 against a Jets D/ST ($3,600) that ranked sixth in defensive DVOA. In two matchups, Allen completed just 55.7% of his attempted passes and averaged only 176.0 passing yards. He threw for one touchdown. However, because of 133 rushing yards and three scores on the ground, Allen was still able to produce 23.7 DKFP per contest. Remember, that was a version of Allen that was clearly injured, too. The former first-round pick is now healthy and has a re-stocked toolshed of weapons playing alongside him. When you’re floor is basically 20.0 DKFP, you’re always viable.

Dalvin Cook ($11,700 CP) - This one’s a little more of a risk. While Cook has been practicing in full with the Jets for a couple of weeks, he signed with the team late in the offseason and did not appear in a single preseason game. Yet, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Cook is expected to handle the “bulk” of the carries for New York this evening, as Breece Hall ($8,200; knee) doesn’t appear to be quite as far along in his rehab process. Hall is still expected to play — and Michael Carter ($2,000) will get some work — but for all intents and purposes, Cook should be the bell cow versus Buffalo. If that turns out to be the case, Cook’s below $8K price tag will not match up with his role. It’s a chance I’m willing to take with a man who has rushed for over 1,100 yards in each of the past four years.

Value FLEX Plays

Randall Cobb ($3,400) - I’ll be honest, my expectations for the Jets’ passing game are relatively low in Week 1. That said, it’s not like New York will be barred from throwing the football in the rain on Monday. Someone is going to catch a couple passes. Stunningly, that man might be Cobb. Though we all joked about the Jets’ roster moves this offseason resembling an Aaron Rodgers ($9,800) group chat, Cobb is pretty clearly New York’s No. 3 wideout after the retirement of Corey Davis. Cobb will get his snaps against the Bills and his familiarity with his quarterback certainly can’t hurt. If you’re going to invest in this element of the Jets’ offensive attack, Cobb at least provides some salary relief.

Khalil Shakir ($2,400) - More than anything, I think you should be looking for ceiling in a value play. That’s exactly what Shakir provides. With Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley all departing in the offseason, Buffalo’s fifth-round pick for the 2022 Draft has an open path to consistent snaps as the Bills’ WR3. In a small sample last season, Shakir proved to be explosive, averaging 16.1 yards per reception and 3.21 DKFP per touch. This is a man who ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His ability to stretch the field should not be up for debate, nor should Allen’s own ability to get him the ball in those scenarios. All he needs is one play to have an impact, yet unlike his rookie campaign, he’ll be given the opportunity for multiple.


Aaron Rodgers ($9,800) - Obviously, there are a lot of things different about Rodgers heading into 2023, so much so that I’d advise against weighing his 2022 statistics too heavily. Still, it’s worth pointing out that the soon-to-be 40-year-old finished last season without a single 300-yard passing performance despite sitting 10th in the league in drop backs (588). Rodgers also failed to register over 20.0 DKFP in 16 of his 17 starts with the Packers, his 0.43 DKFP produced per drop back sitting below the likes of Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton. It was bleak — regardless of how many injuries he might have been playing through. As it pertains to tonight’s action, there’s two things to keep in mind. First, Bills D/ST ($3,800) ranked second in defensive DVOA last season and the unit now has a healthy Tre’Davious White. Second, we’re likely looking at rain at MetLife Stadium. Ask Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones how much they enjoyed suiting up in the elements on Sunday. Better yet, ask the people who used them in lineups.


While the Bills have struggled in recent weather-effected divisional games, I like their chances at defeating the Jets in primetime. While some still have the stink of Buffalo’s 2022 playoff run on their minds, they might be forgetting that the Bills are 37-12 in the regular season since the beginning of 2020. I’m inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt until New York proves that what it’s built matches the hype.

Final Score: Buffalo 24, New York 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (BUF vs NYJ)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.