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DraftKings DFS Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: 2023 PGA TOUR BMW Championship

Geoff Ulrich gets you set for the BMW Championship with winning trends and his picks for your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups.

The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.

Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.2M Summer Sand Trap [$250K to 1st]


The Field

This week, the field has been pared down again, as only the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup Playoffs have advanced. Notable players who WILL NOT play this week include Nick Hardy, Davis Riley and Keith Mitchell. After the BMW Championship is complete, the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be allowed to tee it up one more time in two weeks at East Lake for a chance at some serious cash. As of now, the top five in the FedEx Cup standings are Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Lucas Glover and Patrick Cantlay.

The seeding going into the last leg of the playoffs is very important given the structure of the Tour Championship, where top players start at better scores than those beneath them. Expect to see a lot of jockeying for position on the weekend in what is always a fun and exciting final round. The 50-man field this week makes this a no-cut event, so all six golfers you play on DraftKings will get in four rounds, as long as they’re not disqualified or withdraw.


The Course

Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)—Olympia Fields, Illinois

Par 70, 7,333 yards, Greens: Bentgrass

Olympia Fields will host the BMW Championship for the second time in its history this week, with its last appearance on the PGA coming in 2020. The venue also hosted the 2003 U.S. Open. The midwestern setup has also seen action on the PGA TOUR in prior seasons as the host to the now-defunct Western Open, and it has also hosted several high-level amateur events as well. Winning scores at the collegiate stroke-play events have typically been in the mid-to-high single-digits range, so don’t expect anyone to shoot 59 again this week.

The venue was designed back in 1922 by Willie Park Jr. and will play as a longer Par 70. The course is set out in the suburbs of Chicago in Olympia Fields and features a sprawling, tree-lined layout that should challenge players with tough tee shots. Back at the 2003 U.S. Open, the field here averaged just 54% driving accuracy, and driving stats from the 2020 BMW were very similar. Tough tee shots are the norm this week and players who can cut the length of the course down with power off the tee will have an advantage.

The course features just two par-5s, one of which is the 624-yard first hole. There is also a couple of longer par-3s on the venue, including the par 3-eighth, which was played as the 17th hole in 2003 and measured in at 247 yards for the week. It may play as long as 280 yards this season.

The venue also features at least five par-4s that will measure over 450 yards in length, including the par-4-18th, which could play over 500 yards and present players with an extremely difficult finishing hole.

Hitting a ton of fairways will be key, but this venue will be a true all-around test with great around-the-green skills likely needed at some point too. Expect higher scores this week and players who have trended well at tougher venues in the last few months to potentially do well here. Strokes gained off-the-tee stats will be something to key in on as both Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson (who lost to Rahm in a playoff here in 2020) were leaders in that stat in 2020 and gained over 3.0 strokes OTT that week.

2023 weather outlook: The condensed field this week means we don't have to worry a ton about the weather for our classic lineup builds. Still, for things like first-round-leader betting and your showdown lineups on DraftKings, it can be important. Thursday is the day to watch as there is some rain forecast in the a.m. and winds expected to reach 12-15 mph. Things are supposed to get decidedly better as the day wears on but early starters may see more poor weather than late starters. It may be a good idea to side with late afternoon tee times on Thursday in showdown lineups. The rest of the week looks sunny and clear, with winds fairly neutral. Expect firm greens by Sunday.


Last Five Winners**

2022—Patrick Cantlay (-15 over Scott Stallings)

2021—Patrick Cantlay -27 (over Bryson DeChambeau playoff)

**2020—Jon Rahm -4 (over Dustin Johnson playoff)

2019—Justin Thomas -25 (over Patrick Cantlay -22)

2018—Keegan Bradley -20 (over Justin Rose playoff)

**played at Olympia Fields.


Winning Trends

  • The past 11 winners of the BMW Championship have all had at least one top-12 finish in their last four starts on the PGA TOUR.
  • None of the past 13 winners of the BMW Championship had missed the cut in their previous start.
  • Of the last eight winners, only two finished worse than T12 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship (the first FedEx Cup playoff event) the week prior (Keegan Bradley T49 in 2018; Patrick Cantlay T57 in 2022).

Winners Stats and Course Overview

2020 Winner (played at Olympia Fields): Jon Rahm 4-under-par

Lead-in form (6-13-52-1-27)

SG: OTT— +3.5

SG: APP— +3.0

SG: TTG— +7.4

SG: ATG— +1.4

SG: PUTT— +3.9

  • Rahm had a great all-around performance at this event in 2020, using great ball-striking and putting to help him conquer Olympia Fields.
  • Ultimately, great off-the-tee play was paramount as both Rahm and Dustin Johnson gained over 3.0 strokes off the tee for the week.
  • Only one player in the top 9 at this venue in 2020 gained less than 1.0 strokes off the tee for the week.

Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.

Jason Day +3500 and $8,600

Comparables:

  • Tom Kim +3500 and $8,700
  • Wyndham Clark +3500 and $8,800
  • Sungjae Im +3500 and $9,300

Si Woo Kim +5000 and $7,600

Comparables:

  • Justin Rose +5000 and $7,900
  • JT Poston +6500 and $7,700
  • Cam Davis +5000 and $7,800

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Recent Form

  1. Lucas Glover ($9,100; win-win): Glover’s late-season magic has yet to run out. He heads into this week’s playoff event on a two-event win streak and is up to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings.
  2. Rory McIlroy ($12,100; T3 - T6): McIlroy recorded another top 10 finish, his eighth in a row. The Northern Irishman gained over 9.0 strokes ball-striking last week and looks poised to make another run at the FedEx Cup title.
  3. Patrick Cantlay ($10,500; 2nd - 33rd): Cantlay has had an up and down year and endured his second playoff loss of the season last week. The around the green play from Cantlay carried him last week as he gained 4.9 strokes ATG in Memphis.
  4. Tommy Fleetwood ($9,700; T3-T10): Fleetwood recorded yet another top-five finish last week and his fourth top-six finish in six starts. He drove it well and ranks sixth in SG: OTT stats over the alst 24 rounds.
  5. Max Homa ($9,500; T6-T10): Homa looks like he’s regaining some of that early season form that saw him win at the Farmers and nearly win at Riviera. He gained over 4.0 strokes OTT last week.

DraftKings DFS Strategy

Cash Games: Homa and Im carrying momentum

Both Max Homa ($9,500) and SungJae Im ($9,300) were able to post T6 finishes last week and moved themselves into nice positions for the second playoff event. Both men set up as solid contenders for this week. Im has been driving it much better of late and gained 3.5 strokes off the tee last week in Memphis, while Homa also had a strong week off the tee and typically putts better on Poa/Bentgrass. Both make for good targets for balanced lineup builds. Other potential targets for this format include Cameron Young ($8,500), Cameron Davis ($7,800), and Emiliano Grillo ($7,400).

Tournaments: Morikawa and Byeong Hun An bring solid course history

Morikawa ($9,800) posted a solid T13 last week and has been driving the ball extremely well of late, gaining over 1.8 strokes OTT in four of his last five starts. He was 20th at this venue in 2020 but also played Olympia Fields in college and had success at this venue as an amateur. Byeong Hun An ($7,500) also continues to drive the ball well and finished 12th at this venue back at the 2020 BMW Championships. Despite a small dip in his iron play last week, he’ll be helped by the driver-heavy layout and makes for a good contrarian pick in the mid-7k range. Other potential GPP targets this week include Jason Day ($8,600), Harris English ($6,400) and Kurt Kitayama ($5,600).


MY PICK: Rory McIlroy ($12,100)

This kind of longer par 70 venue should play well to the strengths of McIlroy, who placed 12th at Olympia Fields in 2020 despite being in mediocre form at the time. Back then, the Northern Irishman was enduring a post-Covid slump but this season, his long game has been humming and he comes in off a T3 finish in Memphis, where he gained over 9.0 strokes ball-striking for the week.

Olympia Fields sets up as a driver-heavy affair and McIlroy will surely benefit the most of any player in the field, just given his overall strength in that area. He ranks first in strokes gained off the tee stats over the last 24 rounds and seems overdue to win one of these regular playoff events, with his last non-Tour Championship playoff win coming way back in 2016 at the now-defunct Deutsche Bank Championship.

The price this week for DFS is big but with several sub-6k golfers available to use on DraftKings, in this 50-man no-cut field, McIlroy is easier to fit in this week in many regards than he was last week. The +700 outright number on McIlroy, available on the DraftKings Sportsbooks, also seems more than fair, given the quality of names we’ve seen win this event over the past five seasons.


MY SLEEPER: Si Woo Kim ($7,600)

Kim managed his way to a T16 finish last week in the first playoff event, getting himself up to 17th in the FedEx Cup standings, and is now primed for a good run at the top 10 with a good showing at Olympia Fields. While he’s been held back by the putter of late, you have to think that the South Korean may take some inspiration from fellow long-putter Lucas Glover and the run he is currently on — especially with the rest of his game showing signs of a breakout.

On the surface, this may not seem like the best setup for a player who has thrived in birdie-fests, but his recent off-the-tee play may beg to differ. Kim has become an off-the-tee specialist in 2023 and comes in ranked 4th in SG: OTT stats over the last 24 rounds, having gained over 2.9 strokes OTT in each of his last two starts. That’s great for a longer setup like Olympia Fields, which will demand accuracy and distance with the driver. Kim’s approach play was even better than his driver last week, suggesting that any positive move on or around the greens could produce a big result. He’s a great DFS target and makes sense as a top 10 play for betting as well at +360 odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.2M Summer Sand Trap [$250K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.