Four games are on the baseball schedule tonight starting at 7:05 p.m. E.T. We’ll go over the different targets and values you can use to build your DFS lineups for tonight.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, $10,400 - Spencer Strider ($12,000) is going to draw plenty of attention on the slate. But, I do like going with Valdez for $1,600 less. He’s in a good matchup himself against the Blue Jays, who haven’t been particularly strong against lefties. On the season they own just a .310 wOBA with a 98 wRC+. They don’t strikeout a ton, so we do lose some strikeout potential but with the way Valdez has been pitching, I expect him to go deep into this one. He’s gone at least 6.0 innings in 10 of his 12 starts and in three straight. If people are paying up at pitcher, they’re most likely looking to do so with Strider over Valdez.
Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs, $6,500 - This is an interesting matchup for Detmers tonight. On one hand, the Cubs hit lefties well. With a .343 wOBA and a 115 wRC+, both stats are within the top 10 in the league. So, what’s the appeal? The Cubs also own the 6th highest K% at 25.4%. Despite some pedestrian numbers across the board, Detmers does have a 10.6 K/9. We’ve seen him earn some solid strikeout numbers this season, including at least six strikeouts in six of his 10 starts. The Cubs offense has been quite inconsistent as of late, as they’ve been shutout in two of their last five games. At $6,500, Detmers has some of the best strikeout upside on this slate.
Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, $5,000 - Hoerner is one of the Cubs bats I do like tonight. He’s not someone who’ll provide strikeouts, as he owns a ridiculous 9.8% K%. Hitting out of the leadoff spot, he has good numbers against lefties with a .350 wOBA and a 120 wRC+. With a lot of attention on Detmers tonight, the Cubs bats should go relatively under-owned. Hoerner can provide some base stealing and pop in his bat, making him one of the overall top choices on this small slate.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, $4,700 - Bregman has officially put his slow start behind him. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 8.4 DKFP, collecting 12 hits, including two home runs, nine RBI, and six walks. His numbers against righties have been great overall, with a .350 wOBA and a 126 wRC+. The third base position has a lot of good options tonight, including Rafael Devers ($5,200) and Austin Riley ($4,800) but I like going with the Astros third baseman at $4,700.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs, $3,300 - We haven’t seen a lot of power from Rendon through 32 games. In fact, he’s only registered five extra-base hits through 109 at-bats. But, he’s priced accordingly and I’m willing to take a shot with him at just $3,300. He’s still hitting lefties well and has put up at .376 wOBA with a 141 wRC+. Hitting cleanup doesn’t hurt either and is a cheap way to offset the more expensive bats in this lineup.
Ronald Acuna Jr, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, $6,400 - I’m old enough to remember when a hitter in DFS was considered expensive when he was $5,000. Now, $6K is the new normal. Anyways, Acuna is just a freak of nature at the plate lately. It doesn’t even matter what the matchup is anymore, as he’s been averaging 12 DKFP over his last 10 games, which includes four extra-base hits, six RBI, and six stolen bases. Justin Verlander ($8,600) has been a total hit or miss thus far and I’m ok with targeting against him. Righties have tagged him for a .329 wOBA and a 5.01 FIP in his six starts.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, $5,900 - All Alvarez does is hit monster home runs, so maybe we can get one tonight. The way to beat Berrios has always been left-handed bats. His wOBA against lefties and righties is almost a 100-point difference, as he has a .259 against righties and a .355 against lefties. Southpaws have also tagged him for four of the seven home runs he’s allowed. Alvarez is hitting for massive power again this season and already has a .300 ISO against righties.
Eddie Rosario, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, $3,300 - Rosario continues to be a tremendous value with how well he’s hitting. For someone who is averaging 10 DKFP over his last 10 games, you likely wouldn’t expect him to be only $3,300. His spot in the Braves lineup further solidifies his appeal, as he’s hitting fifth. Through only five games in June, Rosario already has five extra-base hits with three home runs, a double, and a triple. If Verlander struggles in the early going, he’ll have some RBI opportunities to cash in on.
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