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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 17

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

New Orleans Saints v Los Angeles Rams Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images

The last slate of 2023. Have you learned and experienced enough to get your degree? Is it a PhD? Or have you elevated yourself to the heights of Moses, with the power to part the sea? Maybe you have been humbled to the degree of now bending the knee. Do not fret because it takes only one slate to ascertain jubilee. Hopefully, you shall see. What is the key? Set your mind free, tip-toe around the dangerous debris and attack the slate like a ferocious banshee. Do not strive to be a part of the bourgeoisie. That is the only way to become a true VIP.

After a few smaller slates in the last few weeks, we have a 13-gamer this week. There are no Monday night games. NYJ/CLE is the Thursday night game, DET/DAL play on Saturday and GB/MIN is the Sunday night game.

DraftKings Sportsbook has three games with a total of at least 45 points: SF/WAS (49), ARI/PHI (48.5) and MIA/BAL (47). There are three games with a total at or below 40 - ATL/CHI (38), CAR/JAX (38) and LAC/DEN (39.5), There are three double-digit favorites - BUF -12 over NE, SF -13.5 over WAS and PHI -11 over ARI. Three games are within a field goal: TB -3 over NO, IND -3 over LVR and CHI -3 over ATL. There are two home dogs - WAS and NYG.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, $6,600 — Man, there are so many options at quarterback this week that my head is spinning. While I think the higher-priced options will be fine and put up points, I’m not sure any of them exceed 30 DKFP. As a result, I prefer the lower-priced options because the matchups are great and I think they can match or even exceed those higher-priced options. Even parsing between the lower-priced options is giving me a headache as well. I think the field will go with Kyler Murray due to his rushing equity and the matchup against Philly, but there are paths in which he scores in the teens. Therefore, I have settled on Stafford.

He has been fantastic lately, scoring at least 22 DKFP in four of the last five games. The one game he didn’t was 18.52. Against the vaunted Ravens defense which just eviscerated Purdy, Stafford went for 23.66 DKFP. The Giants are susceptible on the ground, and I think Kyren Williams ($8,300) will have a great day, but that also provides balance and opens up things for the passing game.

The Giants are second in blitz rate but have the second-fewest sacks. The Rams have receivers to exploit both man and zone defenses. Couple that with the more-than-credible threat of the rushing attack, Stafford should be able to slice and dice this defense. The ceiling is probably muted, but considering the floor, cost and matchup, he is my favorite quarterback, as of now.

Other Options – Jalen Hurts ($8,300), Josh Allen ($8,200), Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Justin Fields ($7,300), CJ Stroud ($7,100) if he plays, Brock Purdy ($7,000), Kyler Murray ($6,300), Baker Mayfield ($6,100)

Value

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars, $4,900 — Young has been brutal for much of the season, as he’s looked unsure and hesitant to let it rip. He’s thrown only 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions while being sacked 53 times. He has failed to exceed 200 yards passing in nine games this season, with seven of those coming in the last eight games. Last week, though, he was great, going 23-of-36 for a season-high 312 yards with two touchdowns. Now he faces a Jaguars team that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards and seventh-most passing touchdowns. Jake Browning and Joe Flacco both went for over 300 yards against this defense recently. It’s been a brutal season for the Panthers, but these last two games should be time for Young to gain more experience and continue to develop, so they should let him do his thing.

Other Options – Derek Carr ($5,500), Taylor Heinicke ($4,900), Jarrett Stidham ($4,800)


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Running Back

Stud

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders, $9,600 — There really isn’t much to say. McCaffrey has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate, in the NFL and within the galaxy. I’m calling out all of those in space. This is your chance to prove yourselves!

Despite the high price tag, CMC has exceeded point expectations 70% of the time this season. He’s scored at least 20 DKFP in all but two games this season with three over 30 and a 44.7 and 51.7 DKFP game on the resume.

Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points, the seventh-most rushing touchdowns, the seventh-most receptions, the sixth-most receiving yards and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to running backs.

Other Options – Kyren Williams ($8,300), Rachaad White ($7,600), Travis Etienne ($7,200), James Cook ($7,100), Isaiah Pacheco ($6,800), D’Andre Swift ($6,500), Josh Jacobs ($6,200) if he plays

Value

Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals, $5,100 – I like Elliott and White if Stevenson and Jacobs are out, but both could return this week, which would be detrimental to the value of both Elliott and White. Gainwell won’t start and the Brotherly Shove limits the opportunities of any Eagles running back. That said, the Eagles are favored by 11 points at home and Arizona has allowed the most rushing yards, fifth-most rushing touchdowns and second-highest rushing yards per attempt. Gainwell is garnering around 40% of the snaps and has received six rushing attempts in the last two games. I know, it’s not enticing but it’s possible he sees 10 carries this week. He did receive a red zone carry last week and has 23 on the season, 17 behind Swift.

Other Options – Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000), Zamir White ($5,100) if Jacobs is out, Justice Hill ($4,700)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders, $7,000 — Washington has given up the second-most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns and the second-highest yards per attempt. They have the fourth-lowest pressure rate and play man defense at the eighth-highest rate. Aiyuk is the man-buster for the 49ers, garnering a 29.2% target rate against that particular defense, the highest on the team by a wide margin. This is a get-right spot for Purdy and the 49ers aerial attack and Aiyuk has a chance to put up a ceiling game. On the season, he’s exceeded 100 yards receiving five times and gone over 20 DKFP four times with a high of 29.6 DKFP.

Other Options – Tyreek Hill ($9,300), Cooper Kupp ($8,100), Puka Nacua ($7,900), Mike Evans ($7,800), Nico Collins ($7,200) if Stroud plays, Rashee Rice ($6,900), Chris Olave ($6,800), Chris Godwin ($6,100)

Value

Brandon Johnson, Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $3,300 – Courtland Sutton ($6,400) suffered a concussion last week, which led to Johnson playing 68% of the snaps. He received five targets and caught three for 47 yards and a touchdown. There’s a good chance that Sutton doesn’t play this week, which should get Johnson onto the field again. The Broncos have benched Russell Wilson in favor of Jarrett Stidham ($4,800), which is a good thing for Johnson, as he and Stidham had chemistry during the preseason. In two starts last season with the Raiders, Stidham showed aggression and willingness to take shots down the field.

Other Options - Adam Thielen ($5,900), Noah Brown ($5,100) if Stroud plays, Rashid Shaheed ($4,600), Demarcus Robinson ($4,600), Greg Dortch ($4,200), Robert Woods ($3,700) if Stroud plays, DJ Chark ($3,600), Marvin Mims ($3,500), Justin Watson ($3,400)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $7,000 – Kelce has struggled recently. Over the last eight games, he has failed to exceed 100 yards receiving, scored only once, has not reached 20 DKFP and has three games in the single digits. That’s been a big reason why the Chiefs are 3-5 over that span. This week is a get-right spot, as the Bengals have been one of the most generous teams to opposing tight ends. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points on average, seen the fifth-most targets, allowed the most receptions and given up the fourth-most touchdowns.

Other Options – Trey McBride ($5,900), George Kittle ($5,600)

Value

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennesee Titans at Houston Texans, $3,600 Over the last five games, Okonkwo has received at least five targets in four of those contests. He scored his first touchdown last week and finished with 18.3 DKFP. With his 4.52 40 speed, he’s a threat to take one to the house on any given play. Now he faces a Texans team that is tied for the most receptions allowed to opposing tight ends. They have allowed the fifth-most yards and fourth-most fantasy points on average to the position. If Stroud is back for the Texans, Tennessee may have to be more aggressive through the air.

Other Options – Isaiah Likely ($4,600), Juwan Johnson ($3,400), Jonnu Smith ($3,000)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Chiefs D/ST vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $3,600 – Jake Browning had his first poor performance as a starter last week, throwing three interceptions. Now he has to go to hostile Arrowhead stadium to face a Chiefs team that is coming off a loss to the Raiders and should put up some points in this one. The Bengals are 23rd in pass protection according to PFF and will have to slow down a Chiefs defense that is fifth in blitz rate, fourth in sacks and second in pressure rate. On the season, the Chiefs D/ST has racked up 42 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, eight interceptions, one touchdown and has scored double-digit DKFP four times.

Other Options – 49ers D/ST ($4,200), Seahawks D/ST ($3,700)

Value

Ravens D/ST vs. Miami Dolphins, $2,800 – A repeat of last week’s five-interception game will likely not be happening again. That said, the Ravens D/ST has been one of the best units from both a real-life and fantasy perspective. They have scored double-digit DKFP seven times this season. They lead the league in sacks, are fifth in interceptions and are only one of two teams to have racked up more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. According to PFF, they rank ninth in pass rush and second in coverage.

Other Options – Texans D/ST ($3,000), Broncos D/ST ($2,900)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.