Look, I crack a lot of jokes at the expense of the Thursday Night Football schedule, but this one isn’t a laughing matter. This one is basically for a playoff spot in the NFC. Coming into Week 16, the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams both find themselves with a 7-7 record, fighting for the conference’s final Wild Card spot.
Who will grab the inside lane to the postseason? Let’s dive in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NO vs LAR)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Kyren Williams ($16,800 CP) – Full disclosure: I’m a Notre Dame fan. I love Kyren Williams. However, even I didn’t envision a scenario where the former fifth-round pick was an indispensable fantasy asset. Yet, here we are. Williams is the most-expensive player on Thursday’s slate and it’s more than justified. In fact, since returning from a lengthy IR stint in Week 12, Williams has produced the third-most DKFP of any skill-position asset in the league (108.4), trailing only Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. In that span, Williams has racked up three 100-yard rushing performances, four touchdowns and an eye-popping 106 touches. That’s an average of 26.5 touches per contest with a snap share of 80.6%. Simply put, there aren’t many running backs with that type of role in 2023. Saints D/ST ($3,400) has been fantastic at limiting opposing rushing attacks all season long, but Williams’ viability isn’t matchup dependant. It’s all about volume.
Chris Olave ($12,900 CP) – This is a clear buying window for Olave, who had never had a Showdown salary below $9K before this contest. Heck, the sophomore’s price tag has been above $10K on all but two slates this season. Sure, Olave is on the heels of missing Week 15 due to an ankle injury and an underwhelming performance against the Panthers in Week 14; but at the end of the day, the wideout’s ceiling is sky high. Prior to being sidelined last Sunday, Olave sat top 15 in the NFL in both targets (116) and receiving yards (918). Despite missing a game, Olave currently sits fourth in the league in air yards (1,626), stationed behind only DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown and Mike Evans. The Ohio State product is legit, and there’s no logical reason he should be this close in salary to Rashid Shaheed ($7,000). Take advantage of this rare opportunity.
FLEX Plays
Lucas Havrisik ($4,800) – It’s time to talk special teams. While I am of the opinion that the kicker position should be abolished from season-long formats, occasionally the opportunity to utilize a kicker in Showdown presents itself. This is one of those times. Though the case can be made that field goal attempts are often sporadic and difficult to project, we have enough of a sample size at this point in the calendar to make some claims off of the trends. The Rams lead the NFL in field goal attempts per contest (2.8). They’ve actually attempted nine in just the last three weeks. This is what they do. Conversely, hyper-aggressive fourth down teams like the Lions, Dolphins and Chargers all sit in the bottom-five. This isn’t rocket science. Los Angeles is averaging the second-most yards per game across the last three weeks. They have little issue getting into Havrisik’s range.
Lynn Bowden ($3,000) – Once considered a very intriguing — and multi-faceted — prospect coming out of college, Bowden has bounced around the league in recent years. However, the former third-round pick seems to have finally found a home in New Orleans. He’s also started to find a role. Here are Bowden’s snap shares dating back to Week 11: 63.9%, 71.6%, 76.9% and 59.7% in last weekend’s win over the Giants. I have my doubts that he’ll be at all impacted by the return of the aforementioned Olave. Bowden has yet to translate these opportunities into much raw output, but a combined nine targets the past two games isn’t nothing. At this modest of a price tag, he’s worth a look.
Fades
Derek Carr ($9,000) – Carr had one of his best games of the season versus New York, and he’ll stand to gain from the return of Olave, yet there’s just not a lot to get excited about when it comes to the veteran pivot. Carr is registering a putrid 0.41 DKFP per drop back in 2023 — the lowest mark of any QB who has started all 14 of his team’s contests. He’s the exact opposite of a dual-threat quarterback, so much so, that he’s often replaced in the red zone by Taysom Hill ($6,600). Under those conditions, it’s hard to envision much upside. To wit, Carr’s managed to reach the 300-yard passing bouns five times this season, but he’s somehow only averaging 19.5 DKFP in those games. How is that even possible?
THE OUTCOME
The Rams have been really impressive the past few weeks. The team is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU since the beginning of Week 12, and even Los Angeles’ loss in that stretch was a stirring last-second defeat in Baltimore. Sean McVay has his club peaking at the right time — particularly the offense — and I’m just not sure New Orleans has the juice to keep pace. It also doesn’t help matters that the Saints are 2-4-1 ATS on the road.
Final Score: Los Angeles 27, New Orleans 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NO vs LAR)
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
