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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks Today: NFL Week 13 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Los Angeles Rams v Arizona Cardinals Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images

GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.

No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.

OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.

Let’s dive into Week 13.

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Stacks

Game Stack: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Brock Purdy ($6,100) — Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200) — Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) — DeVonta Smith ($7,300)

This is an expensive stack but there are a lot of cheaper value options across the league this week that will open up salary and make this work.

Brock Purdy leads the league in EPA per play (per RBSDM.com) and has generally balled out against weaker secondaries this season. The Eagles’ secondary has now allowed the fourth-most passing yards to opposing QBs and after last week, has now allowed 330 passing yards or more in three of the last four games.

Purdy has produced five games with 23 or more DKFP already, so getting him at just $6.1K sets up our stack nicely to pair him with some of the 49ers’ higher-priced options. Brandon Aiyuk has been up-and-down in his production but generally, when he goes well so does Purdy. The two combined for over 58.0 DKFP against Tampa Bay’s weaker coverage unit a couple weeks ago and get an Eagles secondary this week that struggles against good downfield perimeter receivers.

Entering this week, Aiyuk leads the league in aDOT (for players with 50 or more targets) and profiles similar to other downfield burners like Gabe Davis (6-105) and CeeDee Lamb (11-191) who also had field days against this unit. It’s expensive, but if we’re going 49ers it’s also imperative that we somehow jam Christian McCaffrey into our lineup. McCaffrey may not be in the greatest spot to produce as a runner but as a pass catcher, he’s posted at least an 80% route rate in five straight games and has caught at least five passes in four straight games. If and when the 49ers get inside the five-yard line, he’ll also be the most likely player they look to for touches (11 TDs in 11 games).

On the Eagles’ side, their offense is too good to go down without a fight. DeVonta Smith still has a reasonable salary and has actually seen more targets (16) than AJ Brown (13) over the last two games. Smith produced well against this secondary in the playoffs last year (6-61-1) and San Francisco struggles at limiting well-rounded WRs, allowing the second-most FFP per game to perimeter WRs and fifth-most to slot WRs. Smith has played about 66% of his snaps on the outside but also leads the Eagles in slot snaps (255) this year.


Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($5,700), Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

Wilson hasn’t been a high-volume producer of late but there is reason to think that this week we may see him drop back just a little more than normal. The Texans’ offense is of the quick-strike variety and tends to put a lot of pressure on opposing offenses. Opposing teams have averaged 34.8 pass attempts against them this season (12th most in the league) on top of already allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

A little more passing from Wilson may go a long way. Despite averaging just 29 pass attempts per game, Wilson has still managed to throw for multiple TDs in six games and is averaging a stout 24.2 yards rushing per game. Given that the Broncos still have issues limiting big plays — and are a bottom-three rush defense in terms of EPA per play — I’d expect Wilson to potentially push for a 3-5x kind of day in this spot. With the potential for an even bigger day being possible given how quickly Houston’s offense can score.


Running Back

Top End: Kyren Williams ($7,200), Los Angeles Rams vs Cleveland Browns

You have to love how Williams returned last week. He produced 204 total yards on 22 touches and scored twice, leading to a monster 41.1 DKFP performance. The points aside, the big standout for Williams against the Cardinals was the usage. He played on 77% of the snaps against the Cardinals in the first half and likely would have played even more if the Cardinals had been able to keep the game closer.

This week, Williams plays the Browns, who have a solid secondary and an offense that has been able to move the ball. Cleveland’s rush defense has been subpar of late, allowing multiple big runs to the Broncos RBs last week and over 5.0 yards per carry over the last three games. The Browns may also be without a few of their starters up front on the defensive line (DE Myles Garrett, LB Anthony Walker Jr). Williams should see even more field this week and makes for a great pay-up option in Week 13.

Low End: Jaylen Warren ($5,400), Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Obviously, when we’re talking value and RBs this week, Zach Moss ($4,600) name is at the top of the list. You can and certainly should have some exposure to Moss this week given that Jonathan Taylor is out but, for big-field GPPs, moving up a little to Jaylen Warren — or potentially using the two beside each other — makes a lot of sense as well.

The Cardinals are second last in success rate on defense against the run and allowed Kyren Williams (see above) to run for 8.9 yards per carry. Warren got one-upped by Najee Harris last week but he still played on 49% of the snaps and totaled 16 touches. His chances of breaking a big play this week go up exponentially and with the Steelers offense now operating more efficiently without OC Matt Canada, so do his chances of finding the end zone. Warren’s a good upside/pivot option to consider building GPP lineups around in Week 13.


Wide Receiver

Top End: Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,100) Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

If you are into zigging when other people zag, then Michael Pittman is likely to have a lot of appeal for you this week. I mentioned above how popular Zack Moss ($4,600) is going to be this week and with that kind of higher ownership there is always a leverage play waiting on the other side. If Moss doesn’t have a big day, it may be because of the passing game — specifically Michael Pittman Jr.

Pittman has dominated the targets for the Colts this year, surpassing a 30% target share in four straight games now. While he’s still only managed three TDs, he’s up to seventh in targets on the season and is a positive regression candidate in that metric for the rest of the year. The Titans haven’t been great anywhere on defense but have a weaker secondary that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and 10 TDs to opposing WRs this season. You can stack Pittman with Moss or choose the high-variance route and play him alone. Regardless, this is a spot where he should excel and has the potential to end up as the Colt to own in GPPs.

Top Value: Greg Dortch ($3,700), Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers

One situation a lot of value hounds in DFS will be monitoring this week is the WR injuries for the Arizona Cardinals. Marquise Brown (questionable) and Michael Wilson (out) could both be out for the Cardinals which would leave them very shorthanded against the Steelers. Even if Brown plays, he’ll likely see a lot of Joey Porter Jr., who has been a near-shutdown corner of late, making Brown a poor option.

Greg Dortch has been somewhat reliable of late for fantasy purposes, going for 76 yards two weeks ago against the Texans. While he was inefficient last week, (3 catches on 9 targets) he saved the day for fantasy owners by finding the end zone against the Rams. Dortch will likely be asked to do a lot for the Cardinals this week again, and his ability to move in and out of the slot will also help keep him away from the Steelers’ best corners, too. He’s a solid value in a game where Arizona should be throwing late given the 6.0 point spread.


Tight End: Juwan Johnson ($3,400), New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

The Saints may be without multiple starting receivers this week after both Rashid Shaheed (thigh - doubtful) and Chris Olave (concussion - questionable) missed the first two practices of the week. Even if Olave does play, you will likely see Derek Carr ($5,600) look to Johnson to pick up some of the slack.

An early-season disappointment, Johnson has come on strong of late with 15 targets over his last three games. His last outing saw him gain a season-high 45 yards on a season-high seven targets — with much of that work coming after Olave and Shaheed had left the game. The Lions aren’t great in pass coverage to begin with and have allowed 5 TDs to the position this year, which is tied for second-most in the league. It’s a good time to take the discount and roll with Johnson as a salary-saving value at TE in Week 13.


Defense/Special Teams: Indianapolis Colts ($3,200) vs Tennessee Titans

The Colts come into this game ranking sixth in sacks, and with 15 total sacks over their last three games (also first in sack rate, 13.39%, in that span). Despite cutting Shaq Leonard, this defensive line hasn’t missed a beat and looks poised for another big game against Tennessee’s poor offensive line.

As an offense, the Titans are also not imposing. Tennessee is 28th in sacks against and has produced under 20 points in four straight games. It’s worth noting that both the Steelers and Buccaneers were able to sack Will Levis ($5,200) four times a piece in their recent meetings with the Titans. Levis hasn’t been terrible but the offensive line issues will again likely be too much for him to overcome. A handful of sacks and a potential turnover or two could turn into more here for a D/ST unit that has been coming on of late and looks relatively cheaply priced for this week’s matchup.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.