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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Thanksgiving

Garion Thorne gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Thursday’s three-game Thanksgiving DraftKings NFL slate.

Dallas Cowboys v Carolina Panthers Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images

Full disclosure: I’m Canadian. So I personally prefer my Thanksgiving in early October. You know, when the weather on the east coast isn’t the absolute worst. However, in terms of holiday entertainment, it’s hard to beat a full-day of NFL football. Also a full-day of mashed potatoes and gravy. That’s good, too.

Let’s dive into this special three-game slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (Thu)


QUARTERBACK

Stud

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders, $6,800 - This doesn’t feel like a situation we have to spend all that much time discussing. The Commanders have been torn to shreds to opposing quarterbacks through 11 weeks, as the team is surrendering the most DKFP per game to the position. It’s not like they’ve faced a murderer’s row of pivots, either. Russell Wilson went off for 308 yards and three touchdowns; Desmond Ridder had 307 yards and a pair of TDs; while Tommy DeVito threw for three scores against this secondary less than 72 hours ago. Yikes. Add in that no QB has racked up more DKFP (121.4) or passing touchdowns (13) than Prescott since the beginning of Week 8, and you can see the veteran’s immediate appeal.

Value

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, $6,100 - Some people are going to be drawn to Jordan Love ($5,500) with the Lions’ recent struggles on defense, yet I prefer the sturdy floor of Purdy — who also does not lack for upside. In fact, Purdy’s been a fantasy monster since the return of Deebo Samuel ($5,900) in Week 10, with the sophomore leading all quarterbacks in DKFP per drop back the past two games (0.89). It seems to be as simple as this: When Purdy’s skill position threats are healthy, he’s viable.


RUNNING BACK

Stud

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, $6,800 - While Gibbs has seen his carries diminish since the return of David Montgomery ($6,300), there’s been a clear shift in the dynamic of Detroit’s backfield in comparison to September and early October. Gibbs is now the lead back, with the rookie maintaining a snap share of over 55% in both Week 10 and Week 11. Also, while Gibbs has seen fewer rushes, he’s remained hyper-involved as a pass-catcher and in goal line situations. Sure, in an ideal world, Montgomery wouldn’t be around to hold the former first-round pick back, yet Gibbs has still registered an average of 23.9 DKFP across the past two contests. The talent is too obvious to ignore.

Value

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, $5,900 - Does it come as a shock that Robinson has scored more DKFP this season than all but three running backs? It’s true. After Christian McCaffrey ($8,700), Raheem Mostert and Travis Etienne, it’s the former third-round pick. Now, much of that success is simply availability, yet the point remains: Robinson is having a more impactful season than most were expecting. That should continue on Thursday if Antonio Gibson ($4,500; toe) is ruled out once again. With Gibson sidelined in Week 11, Robinson logged a season-high 77.8% snap share and posted another season-high with nine targets. 24 total touches is nothing to sneeze at.


WIDE RECEIVER

Stud

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders, $8,700 - The only thing that had a chance of stopping Lamb on this slate was an ankle injury. However, the wideout practiced in full on Tuesday and should be good to go on Thanksgiving. It’s a tough break if you happen to be employed by the Commanders, who have surrendered the third-most DKFP per game to opposing WRs so far this season. Lamb has earned 136.1 DKFP since the start of Week 8. No other wide receiver in the NFL has racked up over even 105 DKFP within that same span. Lamb also leads all wideouts in targets (53), receptions (40), receiving yards (538) and receiving touchdowns (4) in that four-contest sample.

Value

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, $4,300 - Look, I’m as underwhelmed as anyone about Watson’s lack of production this season, yet we’re getting to a point where the Packers are running out of other people to throw the ball at. To wit, both Jayden Reed ($4,200; chest) and Dontayvion Wicks ($3,300; concussion/knee) are looking like question marks to suit up on Thursday, while starting tight end Luke Musgrave ($3,300; abdomen) could be headed for the IR after being released from hospital on Tuesday. Heck, even Aaron Jones ($6,000; knee) is unlikely to suit up. Watson’s on the field all the time. He runs so many routes. Eventually, he has to get targeted, right? ...Right?!


TIGHT END

Value

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders, $3,900 - Ferguson is the perfect asset to stack with the aforementioned Prescott, especially if you can’t afford Lamb. Not only does the right end have 22 targets since Week 9 — or a touchdown in three of his last four games — but Ferguson is a red zone magnet. In fact, with 17 targets inside the 20 yard-line so far this season, Ferguson is tied with Davante Adams for the most in the NFL. If Prescott hits his ceiling versus Washington, there’s a good chance that Ferguson was involved.


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Stud

49ers D/ST vs. Seattle Seahawks, $3,600 - There’s a couple things to think about here. First and foremost: The health of Geno Smith ($5,600; elbow). It seems that even if Smith is able to play this week, he’ll be compromised after taking a massive hit from Aaron Donald on Sunday. Then, there’s the worst-case scenario. The one where Drew Lock ($5,000) is thrust into action. If that’s the case, San Francisco becomes almost a must-play, particularly with how effective the pass rush has been since the addition of Chase Young. With the former second-overall pick in the lineup the past two weeks, the 49ers have racked up nine sacks and six turnovers.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (Thu)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.