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Fantasy Football Picks: Packers vs. Raiders DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Packers and the Raiders with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

There’s no way around it. Davante Adams ($11,200; shoulder) is the biggest storyline for tonight’s matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Green Bay Packers. Not only is Adams currently listed as questionable after missing practice on Thursday and Friday, but this is also the wideout’s first game against the organization where he spent the initial eight years of his professional career. Big stuff.

Will he play? Should we all take a walk down narrative street? Let’s dive into it all from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (GB vs LV)


Captain’s Picks

Josh Jacobs ($15,900 CP) - While much of Jacobs’ 27.9 DKFP performance in Week 4 was the direct result of rookie QB Aidan O’Connell ($9,000) peppering him with 11 targets, there’s still a lot to like about the veteran RB going forward. Mostly, Jacobs is a classic example of a bell cow back — a species that is a dying breed in the NFL. Jacobs enters Week 5 having logged a 76.2% snap share and averaging 20.0 touches per contest. Heck, no running back has more receiving yards than Jacobs’ mark of 173, and that’s including all of Sunday’s action. The real key to unlocking another ceiling showing from Jacobs will be his ability to actually gain yards on the ground, something he’s been unable to do across the first four weeks. Thankfully, a matchup with Packers D/ST ($4,400) might be just what the doctor ordered. No NFC team is surrendering more opponent rushing yards per game than Green Bay (155.3), and the Lions were able to rack up 211 yards in a dominating Week 4 victory. I’d expect the Raiders to attempt a similar offensive strategy.

Romeo Doubs ($12,300 CP) - With 25 targets in his past two games, there’s really no doubt that Doubs is currently the top wide receiver in Green Bay’s passing attack. The sophomore hasn’t really translated that volume into many chunk plays — Doubs has yet to register a 100-yard receiving performance this season — yet the lack of explosives is mostly off-set by the fact that Doubs sits eighth in the league in red zone targets (7). If you’re not going to accumulate yards, you’d better at least be scoring some touchdowns. Doubs’ overall role will reduce slightly as Christian Watson ($7,800) continues to be eased back from injury, but the former fourth-round pick has seen at least an 86% snap share in each of the Packers’ last two contests. He’s got role to spare.

FLEX Plays

Jakobi Meyers ($7,000) - The elephant in the room is the health of the aforementioned Adams, who was able to at least log a limited practice on Saturday. I’d assume we see the former All-Pro suit up, but if he’s even close to 100% health is another story entirely. Considering Adams entered Week 5 leading the NFL in targets (50) and target share (37.9%), a compromised version of the WR would open up an insane amount of volume for other Raiders skill position assets. Meyers, in particular, would likely stand to gain the most value. It’s also not like the former Patriot hasn’t already been productive with Adams active. In fact, in the two games Meyers and Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,400) have both been healthy this season, Meyers is averaging 11 targets, eight receptions and 22.3 DKFP per contest. It’s a small sample, but one that certainly grabs your attention.

Luke Musgrave ($5,200) - Musgrave was a massive DFS disappointment in Week 4, exiting a Thursday night Showdown slate, on which he was quite popular, after just 14 offensive snaps. The good news for people who were burned that evening? Musgrave’s price has fallen over $1K thanks to the underwhelming performance, which makes the rookie TE quite tempting in yet another primetime spot. Generally speaking, first-year tight ends tend to be underwhelming, but Musgrave’s role is simply too big to ignore. Musgrave followed up an 88.0% snap share in Week 2 with an 86.1% share in Week 3 — a matchup with the Saints where the 23-year-old hauled in six of his eight targets. Musgrave also had a red zone reception in each of those games and it feels like only a matter of time before the Oregon State product is celebrating his first-career touchdown.


Aaron Jones ($10,000) - There’s just too many warning signs here. I’d be surprised if Jones wasn’t active for this evening’s tilt, but whether his presence translates into DKFP is another thing all together. A hamstring issue has limited Jones to only 48 snaps and 17 touches so far this season, and while Jones was able to play through the ailment in Week 4 — and have 10 days between games to recuperate — he’s still officially listed as questionable. That implies a man who is not at his best health. Jones was able to register just a 35.1% snap share against the Lions and a similar role on Monday would make it nearly impossible for the veteran to pay-off his hefty price tag. It’s a good matchup versus a Raiders D/ST ($3,800) that has conceded 134.3 opponent rushing yards per contest, yet I’m unable to trust the hamstring of Jones.


If I’m being honest, I don’t really think either of these teams are all that good. The Raiders’ lone win was by a single point against a Broncos team we now know to be horrible, while the Packers have triumphed over the lowly Bears and a Saints squad that lost their starting QB mid-way through the game. Congratulations.

Yet, according to DVOA, Las Vegas is the the second-worst team in the NFL. The Raiders are an extra-level of bad. Add in a “home” field that will likely be 45% Packers fans, and I’ll take the points in a clash between two underwhelming foes.

Final Score: Green Bay 24, Las Vegas 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (GB vs LV)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.