Fantasy Football Picks: Buccaneers vs. Bills DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Another Thursday night slate. Another question mark at the quarterback position. This time it’s Baker Mayfield ($9,200; knee), who the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ruled questionable for their Week 8 tilt with the Buffalo Bills. However, as I don’t want to write two articles, I’m making the claim right off the top that Mayfield will play. Chris Godwin ($7,800; neck), too. Both were able to practice in full on Wednesday, so that’s good enough for me.

For everything else, let’s dive in.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TB vs BUF)

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Josh Allen ($17,700 CP) - I’ve long been a sucker for a dual-threat QB in the Showdown format, and few have played that role better in recent seasons than Allen. Heck, the former first-round pick hasn’t even tucked it and run nearly as often through the first seven weeks of this season; however, thanks to his high-leverage selectivity, Allen still sits second among all qualified pivots in DKFP earned per drop back (0.63). A whopping 37.9% of Allen’s 29 carries have come inside the red zone — easily the the highest mark of the 17 quarterbacks with at least 20 rushing attempts. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to four rushing touchdowns for Allen in his last five starts. Add in the fact that the 27-year-old sits second in the NFL in touchdown passes (15) and sixth in passing yards (1,841), and it’s clear why almost zero assets at the position have a higher ceiling than Allen.

Chris Godwin ($11,700 CP) - Godwin is technically questionable due to a neck ailment, but as I mentioned above, he was able to log a full practice on Wednesday, which makes it likely he’s active for Week 8. If that is indeed the case, the wideout deserves consideration in the Captain’s slot. Godwin has racked up 30 targets in the Buccaneers’ last three games, an eye-popping amount of volume that the veteran has translated into 257 receiving yards and an average of 16.2 DKFP per contest. The thing holding Godwin back from truly reaching his upside? Touchdowns. Despite a team-best nine targets in the red zone and a massive 34.6% red zone target share, Godwin has yet to find the end zone. Regression here we come. Godwin is statistically due to cross the goal line, and while Bills D/ST ($4,400) has been relatively stout against the pass for the season as a whole, its been noticeably weaker in recent matchups following the loss of Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano. Tampa is also just a huge underdog on Thursday. The odds they’ll be playing in a negative script and throwing the ball more often that usual are pretty good.

FLEX Plays

Dalton Kincaid ($5,000) - I’m aware of how popular a play Kincaid is going to be, yet it’s difficult to not get excited about the opportunity in front of the rookie. With Dawson Knox (wrist) placed on injured reserve earlier this week, Kincaid is now the clear No. 1 tight end in Buffalo. Honestly, it sort of seemed like we were headed in that direction, anyway, as Kincaid set new career-highs in receptions (8), receiving yards (75) and DKFP (15.5) in last Sunday’s loss to New England — and that was only while logging a 60.6% snap share. The 25th overall pick should be on the field much more in Week 8, going up against a Buccaneers D/ST ($3,600) that’s conceding the fifth-most targets per game to opposing TEs (8.0). It’s a nice matchup to be sure.

Cade Otton ($3,000) - Let’s stack some tight ends, shall we? Otton’s involvement in the passing attack has been inconsistent through six games, as the 24-year-old has registered just a single reception in two of his past four starts. However, very few TEs are on the field as much as Otton, who has logged a 96.6% snap share so far this season. Not to get too simplistic here, but there’s always going to be value in an asset that’s never on the sideline, especially when said asset is playing for a team that’s likely going to have a pass rate in the high 60% range. Otton racked up six targets last Sunday. If he can recreate that volume on Thursday, this price point is laughable. If he can find the end zone, he’s a steal.

Fades

Rachaad White ($8,000) - The Bills have actually been pretty susceptible to opposing rushing attacks, yet it doesn’t feel like the Buccaneers are the team that’s going to take advantage of that flaw. Tampa Bay comes into Week 8 averaging just 77.8 rushing yards per game — the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. As you might expect, those struggles have impacted White’s fantasy value, as the running back is producing the fewest DKFP per snap of any RB with a 50% snap share (0.24). White also owns the fourth-lowest rushing success rate of anyone qualified at the position (39.8%). On the road, in a negative script, I don’t see this being the week that White turns he fortunes around.

THE OUTCOME

Buffalo’s won 14 of its last 16 home games, and though the team has occasionally stumbled so far this season, all of those issues have been on the road. Well, on the road or “at home” in England. The NFC South looks to once again be one of the league’s weakest divisions and I expect the Bills will easily handle a middling at best Buccaneers squad.

Final Score: Buffalo 31, Tampa Bay 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TB vs BUF)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.