No teams are on bye. That brings a tear to my eye but no dancing to Gangnam Style by Psy because this main slate will be without the Bills, Bucs, Bears, Chargers, Raiders and Lions. Sigh. But we shall get by. At least it’s not July when all we get are blue skies and pop flies. Make sure you’re connected to wifi and bellow out a thunderous war cry. Then let’s attack this slate like a samurai delicately pruning a bonsai.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are four games with a total of at least 45 points: NEP/MIA (47), LAR/DAL (45), KC/DEN (46) and CIN/SF (45). There are three games with a total below 40 – NYJ/NYG (36.5), ATL/TEN (36) and CLE/SEA (39.5). There is no double-digit favorite. Six games are within a field goal: NYJ -3 over NYG, MIN -1 over GB, JAX -2.5 over PIT, ATL -3 over TEN, HOU -3 over CAR and IND -1.5 over NO. WAS, NYG, GB, PIT, TEN, CAR, DEN and ARI are home dogs.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals, $8,100 — The rushing will always be there for Lamar, as he’s had at least six rushes in every game this season. In five games, he’s carried the ball at least nine times and has two games with two rushing touchdowns. That provides some semblance of floor. That said, he has scored fewer than 20 DKFP three times this season — an 8.56 performance in the opener when the Texans had all offseason to gameplan and two against tough defenses in the Titans and Steelers.
In the other four games, he’s put up 22.88, 32.18, 29.14 and 37.88. In those last two, the games were blowouts yet Lamar and Harbaugh continued sweeping the leg. That same scenario could manifest again this week. The Ravens are 8-point road favorites against the Cardinals, whose offense has come back down to earth with 10 and nine points over the last two games while their defense that has given up the seventh-most passing yards and third-most rushing yards on the season. Arizona blitzes at the fourth-lowest rate and has the lowest pressure rate in the league.
There is always the possibility that Gus Edwards ($5,500) scores all the touchdowns but the Ravens’ defense should provide plenty of short fields and opportunities to score — Lamar should get his. Show no mercy! Sweep the leg!
Other Options – Patrick Mahomes ($8,400), Jalen Hurts ($8,200)
Value
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $5,200 — The range of outcomes is wide with Howell. He could score single-digit DKFP or get close to 30. At least he’s going to go down swinging. The Eagles are almost impossible to run against, so the path of least resistance is via the air. Howell has games with 42, 41 and 51 pass attempts this season, so the Commanders will let their gun slinger shoot. These teams met in Week 4 and Howell attempted 41 passes, completing 70.7% of them and finishing with 19.6 DKFP. He has a little rushing equity as well, rushing six times for 40 yards in the prior meeting with Philadelphia.
Other Options – Brock Purdy ($5,600), Gardner Minshew ($5,400), Mac Jones ($5,000), Kenny Pickett ($4,900)
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Running Back
Stud
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts, $7,300 — The Colts’ defense can be stout against the run, as they’ve allowed only 3.8 yards per carry but they’ve given up a league-high 12 touchdowns. Kamara had seven red zone opportunities last week and leads the non-running backs with 18 on the season. Over the last four games, Kamara has received 17, 19, 22 and 11 carries to go along with 14, 8, 3 and 14 targets. He’s baaaaaack! That’s translated to 21.4, 18.7, 17.4 and 29.3 DKFP.
Other Options – Travis Etienne ($7,200), Isiah Pacheco ($6,100)
Value
Breece Hall, New York Jets at New York Giants, $5,900 – Slowly but surely the Jets have increased the utilization of Hall. He started the season playing in 30% of the snaps, which increased to 40% in Weeks 3 and 4 and went to 52% and 66% in Weeks 5 and 6. That translated to 22 carries against Denver and 12 against Philadelphia but he received five targets in that one. The Eagles are one of the toughest teams to run on, so the low carry count isn’t surprising. This week, he faces a Giants team that has allowed the second-most rushing yards, third-most touchdowns and third-highest yard-per-attempt. And the Jets are coming off their bye. Wheels up!
Other Options – Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Dameon Pierce ($5,300), Kareem Hunt ($5,200)
Wide Receiver
Stud
AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, $8,000 — Brown has received 15, 9, 8, 13 and 14 targets over the last five weeks and gone over 100 yards in all of those games. He’s scored three touchdowns. In the Week 4 meeting against Washington, he caught nine of 13 targets for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Washington has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and second-most touchdowns. Howell will likely be slinging it close to 40 times and there’s a chance he puts up points, so Philadelphia could be forced to maintain aggression again. Just keep in mind that this will be the second time these division rivals will meet this season, so a more grind-it-out affair could ensue.
Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000), Adam Thielen ($6,600)
Value
Demario Douglas, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, $3,300 – The diminutive Douglas caught the eye of the Patriots at the Shrine game, then they selected him in the sixth round of the 2023 draft. Coming from a small school, it took time to get adjusted and he suffered an injury early on, but it looks like he’s arrived and will be a significant part of the offense going forward. Last week, he played in 62% of the snaps and caught four of six targets for 54 yards while rushing once for 20 yards. The Dolphins will more than likely put up some points, so the Patriots should have to sling it through the air.
Other Options – George Pickens ($5,600), Terry McLaurin ($5,300), Drake London ($5,100), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Rashee Rice ($5,000), Josh Downs ($4,800), Kendrick Bourne ($4,700), Curtis Samuel ($4,200)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, $8,400 – Kelce is $2K more than the field at the tight end position. Yes, he’s expensive but he is essentially a number one wide receiver and is definitely Mahomes’ beau. He’s coming off a game in which he hauled in 12 of 13 targets for 179 yards and a touchdown. The prior week, against the Broncos, he caught all nine targets for 124 yards. There will be no “Blank Space” in the stat sheet for Kelce this week. We know this “All Too Well.” Are you “…Ready For It?” It’s “Karma.”
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($6,400), TJ Hockenson ($6,200), Darren Waller ($5,200)
Value
Connor Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $2,600 – With Pat Freiermuth out until Week 11, Heyward played in 86% of the snaps in Week 7 and led the tight end group with three targets, with one of those in the red zone. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points and second-most targets to tight ends this season.
Other Options – Taysom Hill ($4,000), Dalton Schultz ($3,900),
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Saints D/ST at Indianapolis Colts, $3,700 – The Saints have one of the best units in the league. They are tied for third in interceptions and have scored double-digit DKFP three times this season, with 24 DKFPs against the Patriots in Week 5. Minshew Mania can bring euphoria with touchdowns but can also provide depression with sacks and turnovers.
Other Options – Eagles D/ST ($4,300), Ravens D/ST ($4,200), Cowboys D/ST ($3,600)
Value
Browns D/ST at Seattle Seahawks, $3,000 – The Browns possess one of the most balanced defenses. They allow a paltry 3.6 yards per carry so teams eventually have to drop back and pass. Even so, they are the only unit to not allow 1,000 yards passing on the season. They have given up only 895 yards through the air. They are first in quarterback knockdowns and fifth in pressure rate. They have also produced two double-digit DKFP games this season.
Other Options – Packers D/ST ($2,700)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
