Fantasy Football Picks: Lions vs. Packers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

The Week 18 Sunday Night Football contest features a matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.

Let’s look at this game from a DraftKings NFL Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (DET vs GB)

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Pick

Aaron Jones (CP $10,000)

The Packers’ offense has been extremely efficient since their turn around. Their players are not putting together impressive stat lines but the team is scoring points. The Packers have scored 24 or more points in six of the last seven games, and they scored four or more touchdowns in four of those contests. When they drive, they score TDs.

Six of those TDs were by AJ Dillon ($6,800), and he is worth a pivot or pairing, but Jones is the traditional running back. He carried the Packers in Week 15 with 90 yards and in Week 17 with 111 yards. Detroit ranks No. 27 against the run (DVOA), and they have allowed the third-most rushing TDs (15). Detroit’s offense might be one of the best in the league but their defense lags behind. This leads to shootouts and touchdowns, and Green Bay caps their drives with running back TDs.

FLEX Plays

Jamaal Williams ($7,000)

One does not simply walk into Lambeau Field and snatch away a playoff spot. The Lions’ quick hitting, short-route driven passing attack works outdoors just as well as indoors. The weather wont be terrible in Green Bay on Sunday night, but if the Lions think they’re going to fling the ball all around the field, then they’re going to lose. They need to play conservative, mistake-free football. That’s how they beat the Packers the first time around. They let Aaron Rodgers beat himself, something he has demonstrated that he is more than willing to do at this advanced stage of his career.

The conservative approach should feature a steady stream of rushes by Williams — the former Packer. Williams went for 144 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 41-10 win over Chicago. His rushing totals have not been the greatest of late, but the Lions were facing solid defenses. The Packers do not have a solid defense. They rank second-to-last in rush defense (DVOA).

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,000)

Jaire Alexander led the Green Bay secondary in shutting down Justin Jefferson in Week 17. St. Brown is in a different situation. Jefferson mainly lines up wide and Alexander does not move into the slot. St. Brown is mainly a slot wide receiver. The Packers’ 2019 first-round pick Darnell Savage has been the Packers’ primary slot CB. He has a 47.4 rating at Pro Football Focus. His rating is harsh because he’s a safety being asked to play out of position, but it is what it is. The Packers have strong cornerbacks on the outside, but they can be attacked underneath and in the slot. St. Brown grades out as the second-best receiver in the NFL by PFF.

Robert Tonyan Jr. ($5,000)

Detroit has allowed the most TDs to tight ends (11). Aaron Rodgers does not sling the ball around as much anymore, but he does evenly distribute his targets. He does not have a favorite. Receivers, tight ends and running backs all get their turn. Rodgers takes what the defense gives him, and the Detroit defense will likely give him open tight ends in the end zone. Rodgers tossed a TD to Tonyan last week and one the week before that to TE Marcedes Lewis ($600). The Packers score touchdowns and the Lions concede touchdowns. The name of the game is “Pick the Packer TD.” The RBs are the odds on favorites, but the TEs could score a TD and provide excellent value on Sunday night.

Fades

Aaron Rodgers ($10,400)

Several weeks ago, Rodgers was listed as the fade for the Sunday Night Football matchup with the Eagles. It wasn’t very shocking then, and it’s not very shocking now. The Packers receiver corps is just now gelling. They're a brand new group and have not been healthy until late. Speaking of health, Rodgers is old and has a broken thumb. The offense is led by the running backs. The numbers back this up. Rodgers won’t sniff 300 passing yards on Sunday night, even against a weak defense. He could pass for multiple TDs and rush for one. However, it’s more likely that the Packers’ RBs find the end zone and Rodgers is a game manager.

THE OUTCOME

The Packers won’t go away. This is the Lions’ turn to make the playoffs, but Aaron Rodgers doesn’t care. The Packers were dead in the water a month ago. Now, all they have to do is beat the Lions at home on Sunday night. How each team got to this point is easily understood. Where they go from here is easy to predict. It’s the Lions. It’s the Packers ... at home ... in January ... with the playoffs on the line. It’s Aaron Rodgers. He wins.

Final Score: Green Bay 31, Detroit 27

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (DET vs GB)

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.