It’s the Wild Card Round. Two games on Saturday and three games on Sunday. The first step towards fitting the crown on the team that can confound their opponents, whether it be through the air or on the ground, and making their fan base proud. Let’s dig into this slate like an ultrasound. Searching for clues like a bloodhound. The information abounds, so much that one may drown, leading to frowns and getting clowned. We don’t want that. No time to fool around. Let’s navigate this DFS battleground and get to the top of the leaderboard, making you renowned.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bills are favored by 13 points vs. the Dolphins at home, with the total at 43.5. The Vikings are favored by three points at home vs. the Giants, with the total being 48.5. The Bengals are favored by 7.5 points vs. the Ravens at home, with the total being 41.5.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $7,900 — Tua Tagovailoa is out, so Skylar Thompson ($4,800) is expected to start. While I like Thompson as a prospect, this is a tough spot for him — traveling to a hostile environment in a playoff game. As a result, the Bills defense should be able to control the game and afford more possessions and opportunities for the offense.
Miami has had a good run defense this season (fourth in DVOA), but the Dolphins are 25th in pass defense. The unit blitzes at the second-highest rate but is only 20th in adjusted sack rate. Ruh roh. The path of least resistance is through the air, which aligns well with what the Bills want to do anyways. The elevated blitz rates leave the secondary in plenty of man-on-man situations, which the Bills receivers can feast on. In addition, Allen has rushing equity, which adds another stress for the defense.
In the two games against Miami this season, Allen has gone for 39.86 and 30.7 DKFP. He attempted 40 and 63 passes while rushing 10 and eight times.
Value
Daniel Jones, New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings, $5,600 — For much of the season, the Giants have played conservatively, relying on their running game and defense. Jones attempted fewer than 30 passes seven times. What makes Jones intriguing is the rushing equity. He’s rushed at least 10 times in six games with at least three attempts in every contest. He has seven rushing touchdowns on the season.
Three weeks ago, these teams met and Jones went 30 of 42 for 334 yards, a touchdown and an interception while rushing four times for 34 yards. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance — Minnesota will dissect the tape and adjust. What gets me optimistic is that the adjustments would likely be to negate the passing game, which could open up seams for Jones to run, which is likely the more comfortable path for him. If the Vikings don’t adjust, then Jones could carve up the 26th-best pass defense according to DVOA again.
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings, $7,900 — Barkley is the little engine that could for the Giants. Show me the money! He’s going to get around 90% of the snaps, hog the passing game work and be the main guy at the goal line. Against the Vikings three weeks ago, Barkley rushed 14 times for 84 yards and a touchdown while hauling in eight of 10 targets for 49 yards.
Value
James Cook, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $4,800 – Last week, Cook garnered 56% of the snaps. Prior to that, he was languishing in the 40% area. This could be a blip on the radar or a window into things to come.
Miami has been tough against rushing attacks. Against pass-catching running backs, though, they allowed the eight-most receptions and yards during the regular season while being tied for the most touchdowns allowed.
Cook was drafted to be the pass-catching back and space manipulator. It’s $$$ time now.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants, $8,600 — Jefferson has exceeded points expectations 60% of the time this season. He’s one of the best receivers in the game and has put up at least 30 DKFP eight times, with a high of 42.4. Against the Giants three weeks ago, he caught 12 of 16 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown.
The Giants are the most blitz-happy defense in the league while being only 22nd in adjusted sack rate. There should be opportunities for Jefferson to get loose in this one.
Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Stefon Diggs ($7,700)
Value
Richie James, New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings, $3,900 – Since James entered the rotation in Week 12, he has received 70, 52, 91, 79, 83 and 79% of the snaps. Over that span, he’s garnered six, three, nine, five, 12 and seven targets, respectively. He is now tied for the team lead at 71 targets on the season. When these teams met three weeks ago, James caught eight of 12 targets for 90 yards.
Other Options – Gabe Davis ($4,900), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100), Tyler Boyd ($4,000)
Tight End
Stud
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants, $5,100 – Since being acquired by the Vikings, Hockenson has caught 60 of 86 targets for 519 yards and three touchdowns in 10 games. Against the Giants three weeks ago, he hauled in 13 of 16 targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the Giants will be paying more attention to Hockenson this time around. That said, the Vikings have so many weapons that there will be opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies.
Value
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, $3,200 – The Dolphins will more than likely have to be aggressive and chase points in this one. Last week, Thompson dropped back 31 times and targeted the tight ends 11 times, with six of those going to Gesicki. He’s exceeded 50 yards only once this season but has five touchdowns.
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Bills DST vs. Miami Dolphins, $3,300 – The Bills don’t blitz much and are 16th in total sacks, but boy do they cover. The unit is ninth in pass defense DVOA and have 17 interceptions on the season, good for third-most. The Dolphins will likely be chasing points in this one, which invites for more Thompson drop backs and more mistake opportunities.
Other Options – Bengals DST ($3,500)
Value
Giants DST at Minnesota Vikings, $3,000 – The likely outcome is that this defense gets toasted. That said, it’s within the range of outcomes that Kirk Cousins ($5,900) does Kirk Cousins things and throws a pick-six or two, or three.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.