Thursday marks Sale’s first start since the All-Star break. The Braves’ left-hander last threw on July 14, a start in which he only struck out four over five frames. That was only the second time he’s logged fewer than six Ks in a game this season.
He’ll be opposite a fellow ex-AL East arm, Luis Severino. While the right-hander hasn’t experienced a resurgence on the level of Sale, Severino has by and large been a quality addition to the Mets rotation. The right-hander enters Tuesday’s NL East battle with a 3.58 ERA through 19 starts and 115 2/3 innings.
Here’s a look at some of their home-road splits via their individual player pages in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
One thing that jumps out is Sale has a slightly better K rate on the road (34.4%) than at home (30.5%). Now, the Mets aren’t known to be strikeout-happy. They enter this one with a 21.1% strikeout rate this season. There isn’t much of a difference when it comes to handedness, either, as the Mets’ strikeout rate only bumps up to 21.3% when focusing on at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
However, the Mets have been striking out more this month. Against both righties and lefties, they’ve put up a 23.5% K rate in July. Still not overwhelming, but things change here when you factor in handedness. Against lefties in July, the Mets have a 27.8% strikeout rate across 216 plate appearances. I’m riding that trend and rolling with Sale to go over 7.5 strikeouts at -110.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
While Severino has been good, he still enters this game with a 4.24 FIP. Specifically at home, that number jumps up to 4.43. He’s far from unhittable.
Although lefties have been more of the problem for Severino, Austin Riley jumps out as an option Thursday. The Braves 3B worked his ISO against right-handed hitters up to .199 this month on the back of a .321 July within the split. With Severino only having a 19.1% K rate against righties, that could play huge and help Riley log over 1.5 total bases at +125.
Jarred Kelenic has the same odds to go over 1.5 total bases. He’s not hit for as much power against righties this month (.150 ISO). But, Severino is a more advantageous matchup for the outfielder than Riley. That said, the better route with Kelenic may be to take him over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs because of his decreased power and his spot in the Braves lineup.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
