Are you ready for some All-Star baseball? Well, you better be, because there isn’t much else going on in the sports world until the British Open tees off on Thursday. This game shouldn’t need as asterisk, though. It promises to be a lively affair, with much of MLB’s top young talent populating the rosters.
How should you approach the contest from a DFS perspective? Let’s break it all down.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (NL @ AL)
MLB ALL-STAR GAME MVP ODDS ARE LIVE pic.twitter.com/3diWrWLerw
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) July 10, 2024
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Gunnar Henderson ($14,700 CP) – Thanks to a well-timed press conference, we know that Henderson will be batting second for the American League on Tuesday night. It’s a well deserved honor. The sophomore is in the midst of a true breakout campaign. The type of season that doesn’t just announce Henderson’s presence as a perennial All-Star, but as a player that will be an MVP candidate for years to come. Henderson enters the break sitting in the 99th percentile in hard hit rate (56.7), the 96th percentile in expected wOBA (.389) and the 95th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.535). He’ll face Paul Skenes ($5,600) in his first plate appearance, and while that’s rarely good news, Skenes is at least right-handed. Henderson owns a eye-popping 1.001 OPS off righties in 2024.
Value UTIL Plays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,000) – This is a bit of an odd price point for Guerrero. In fact, among the players voted as starters for the American League, Guerrero is by far the cheapest. Obviously this is a big fish in a big pond scenario, someone had to have the lowest salary, but Guerrero’s stats don’t appear to warrant the designation. Since the beginning of May, Guerrero is slashing .316/.375/.506 with a 150 wRC+ across 280 plate appearances. For the season as a whole, he ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity (94.0) and the 94th percentile in both expected wOBA (.383) and expected slugging percentage (.527). He’s a former All-Star Game MVP, for goodness sake. Get him in a couple lineups.
Jurickson Profar ($5,400) – I have a similar thought process with Profar, who is even cheaper than the aforementioned Guerrero. While Profar lacks the track record and notoriety of some of the other All-Stars, he was deservingly voted as a starter by the fans. As such, he will very likely see multiple plate appearances in this exhibition contest. Profar is one of only 12 qualified hitters batting over .300 this season, and that’s backed up by a 92nd percentile expected batting average (.292). In 393 plate appearances, Profar owns a 152 wRC+. The veteran is also a switch-hitter, a trait which is extremely valuable in a setting where a different pitcher will be throwing every inning. Profar’s specifically crushed LHPs in 2024, yet he’s been pretty good against RHPs, as well, posting an .827 OPS within the split.
Mason Miller ($4,000) – Using pitchers in the All-Star Game Showdown contest is a matter of preference. On the one hand, with all pitchers likely being limited to a single inning of work, they tend to lack the same DFS upside as hitters. However, it’s not like positional players are logging nine innings, either. Most won’t get more than two plate appearances, which means pitchers — especially those with massive strikeout ability — have a more secure floor. Well, no one has more strikeout ceiling than Miller, who I am positive will be pitching on Tuesday night. Why wouldn’t he be? In a lost season for the Athletics, Miller has been one of the biggest stories in baseball. The 25-year-old sports a 46.7% strikeout rate across 39.2 innings — by far the highest strikeout rate in MLB. Miller’s 1.50 xERA is pretty sweet, too.
Fades
Garrett Crochet ($5,400) – Crochet is the most expensive pitcher on the American League roster, so on that principle alone, he’s a tough sell. However, I have serious concerns that the left-hander will even appear in this game. The White Sox had Crochet throw only two innings and 28 pitches in his final start before the All-Star break, which is a pretty telling sign that the organization is locked in on his innings workload. It makes sense. Not only has Crochet already almost tripled his career innings in 2024, but he might be an asset that Chicago looks to move at the deadline. If the White Sox had their choice, I assume they’d rather not see Crochet take the mound in an exhibition game. That’s enough of a red flag for me to steer clear.
THE OUTCOME
Who knows? Who cares? Currently, the National League is getting plus-money on the moneyline, so I’d probably side with them in a tilt with no real stakes. However, I do feel strongly about the under. Offense is down all around baseball and now we’ve got a collection of the top arms in the sport all pitching in a single game. There’s been less than seven runs scored in every All-Star Game but one since 2016. That’s a trend to trust.
Final Score: National League 4, American League 3
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (NL @ AL)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
