What better way to celebrate Bobby Bonilla Day than by taking a look at the Mets’ matchup with the Nationals on Monday?
David Peterson and MacKenzie Gore will go toe-to-toe to open up July. They’ve both got an ERA under 4.00, but Peterson enters Monday with a FIP over 5.00 while Gore’s FIP sits pretty at 3.14.
Still, Gore has the tougher matchup on Monday. Here’s a look at some of the numbers these lineups have put up against left-handed pitching via the Team Splits page in the Stats Hub on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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The Mets not only rank fourth in wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitching this season, they also have just a 19.7% strikeout rate against them. On the road, that number dips down a smidge to 19%. That puts the under on Gore’s strikeout prop in play at 5.5 with +120 odds. On top of that, Gore is pitching at home. He’s got a 29.7% strikeout rate on the road but a 24.8% strikeout rate at Nationals Park.
As for Peterson, his outs recorded line is set at 17.5. He’s gone over that number in two of his six starts this season. One of those two outings came on June 4 against this very Washington lineup. Given the Nats have a .111 ISO and .282 wOBA against left-handed pitching, he’s in position to go over this number again (-110).
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Brandon Nimmo had himself a very strong June and is in a spot where he can extend his elevated play. Left-handed hitters have a .363 wOBA against Gore this season. He’s also posted just a 3.94 FIP and 22.1% strikeout rate against lefties this season. Meanwhile, Nimmo enters this matchup with a .207 ISO and .347 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Nimmo is -130 to go over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs and +125 to go over 1.5 total bases.
Peterson’s splits are more traditional, making right-handed hitters the better option from Washington’s side of this matchup. Like Nimmo, Lane Thomas is +125 to go over 1.5 total bases. He’s got a .237 ISO and .405 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Further down the lineup, Nick Senzel is +195 to log 2+ total bases. He’s only hitting +220 against left-handed pitching, but he’s got a .240 ISO and .338 wOBA against lefties.
Same Game Parlaying all three hitters above to log at least one hit apiece provides +200 odds.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
