Phillies vs. Marlins Bets: How to approach player props from Phillies-Miami on June 27

Zack Wheeler has had three rough starts this season. Surprisingly, one of those outings came against this very Miami lineup.

But, that only makes me more inclined to find ways to back him. I have a hard time imagining the Marlins get the best of him twice in one season.

As for Trevor Rogers, June has been a nice bounce back from a gross May. Still, he’s logged a 4.55 FIP this month, so it’s not as though he’s been perfect. Similar to Wheeler, he got roughed up by this Phillies team when he threw against them in May. But unlike Philadelphia’s starter, Rogers has a much tougher lineup to bounce back against.

Here’s a look at how the Marlins have done against right-handed pitchers on the road this season and how the Phillies have done against left-handed pitchers when at home this season via the Team Splits page in the Stats Hub on DraftKings Sportsbook:

There are a few betting options that jump out after looking through the numbers above:

• Trevor Rogers under 4.5 strikeouts
• Zack Wheeler over 20.5 outs recorded
• Zack Wheeler under 4.5 hits allowed
• Zack Wheeler under 1.5 earned runs allowed

Of the Wheeler props, his earned runs play is my favorite option at +120. He’s given up one or fewer runs in 10 of his 16 starts this season. Miami got to him for six runs last time out, but this is a lineup that has just a .277 wOBA and .128 ISO on the road against righties.

As for Rogers, the under on his strikeouts prop has -125 odds. Quite frankly, those could be worse. The left-hander has only logged more than four strikeouts once in six road starts this season. In general, he has a 17.6% strikeout rate this season. On the road, that number dips down to 14.5%. That’s huge for this play against a lineup that has a 20.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching at home.

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As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

A couple bats jump out from both sides.

With the Phillies, Bryce Harper has seen Rogers as much as any hitter. He hasn’t crushed the Miami left-hander, but Harper is crushing lefties who visit Citizens Bank Park (.333 ISO and .454 wOBA). At +135, he’s an interested option, but Nick Castellanos is the Philly bat I land on. He’s been much better on the road than at home against lefties (.327 ISO vs. .081 ISO). But seeing him have lower odds (-110) than Harper despite those numbers has my attention, especially when we know he’s capable of doing damage against left-handed pitching.

As for Miami, Josh Bell is +160 to log 2+ total bases and Jazz Chisholm is +165 to log 2+ total bases. Both have good career numbers against Wheeler. Bell doesn’t exactly provide a ton of prop, so those odds make a little more sense, but Chisholm has a .189 ISO against right-handed pitchers when on the road this season.

Those looking to create a Same Game Parlay of hits, backing all four hitters to log a hit provides +320 odds.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.