The Pittsburgh Steelers once again managed a 9-8 record last season and kept head coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons as the Steelers head man intact. But when you look under the hood, that 9-8 record didn’t quite reflect just how bad the Steelers offense was. Their 1.8 touchdowns per game ranked 28th in the league, while their .8 touchdown passes per game tied for second to last. This poor play lead to the team shedding all their quarterbacks, including first round pick Kenny Pickett, while letting their OC, Matt Canada, go during the season.
During the offseason they brought in quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, while also adding OC Arthur Smith and trading away WR Diontae Johnson. These are absolutely huge changes for the offense, especially the passing offense. And for fantasy, we’ll need to try to read the tea leaves as to how the offense will function.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers
Last season Freiermuth dealt with injuries and a dysfunctional offense. He easily ended up with the worst production of his three seasons in the league, as he caught 32-of-47 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games played. In his first two seasons in the league, he averaged 61.5 receptions on 177 targets and 4.5 touchdowns. That average would have put him in the Top 10 for fantasy tight ends last season.
This year expectations for Freiermuth should be raised for three reasons. First, he will have a better quarterback in Wilson, second, his OC has proven in the past he will get tight ends involved, a lot, and lastly, the Steelers need pass catchers to step up after losing Johnson.
Russell Wilson
How much better is Wilson than Pickett? It’s hard to tell, but the Broncos passing offense was better than the Steelers last yea, averaging 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, as Wilson at least looked serviceable. And if Fields were to see time, we know he was able to help Bears TE Cole Kmet to a strong 2023, as he caught 73 passes for 719 yards and six touchdowns.
Arthur Smith
Probably the most promising data point is just how often Smith uses his tight ends. Last year his Falcons team targeted the position a league high 174 times for a huge 34% target share. Those targets were split between Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith, but in Pittsburgh, Freiermuth would no-doubt get the bulk of the work.
Who deserves targets in Pittsburgh?
Wide receiver George Pickens is the WR1 by a wide margin in Pittsburgh, while there is nobody you can pencil in as WR2. They hope rookie Roman Wilson can take that spot, but maybe a veteran like Van Jefferson wins out. Either way, there is plenty room for Freiermuth to be the second target in the receiving game with Johnson now with the Panthers. Jaylen Warren will take some of those targets as well, but as it is, I’d project Pickens > Freiermuth > Warren to be the Top 3 targets as long as they stay healthy.
Overall thoughts
The tight end position got better last year with Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride stepping up, but the position is still weak overall. If Freiermuth can get the targets he should and the Steelers offense under Wilson is closer to middle-of-the-road, Freiermuth should easily be in the Top 10 conversation this season.