One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Under on total when road favorite is coming off a loss
This system is 88-70-9 to this point in 2024. Far from an overwhelming play from a season-long perspective, but it’s been trending recently. Over the last 30 days, this play is 40-27-3. Over the last seven days specifically, this play is 7-2-1.
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Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- CIN @ PIT
- MIL @ LAA
- KC @ OAK
Of the three teams favored, Milwaukee is the only one that’s been more favorable to the over than the under overall (38-31-3 to the over). However, the Brewers are specifically strong to the under in this setting. Milwaukee has played as a road favorite following a loss on five occasions this season. In four of those games, the under has hit.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 18
MIL-LAA under 9 runs -115
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
SYSTEM: NRFI when home favorite is coming off a win
Been a bit since we last highlighted this system, and it continues to be a reliable option. Over the last 30 days, this play has come through in 57.43% of the 148 games it’s been in play. That’s put the play’s season-long success rate at 57.40%.
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Four games fit this system on Tuesday:
- PHI vs. SD
- WSH vs. ARI
- ATL vs. DET
- MIN vs. TB
With the help of the NRFI/YRFI tool in the Stats Hub, Washington-Arizona jumps out as the top option of the bunch. Washington is the best team to NRFI this season at 49-22 overall. Furthermore, NRFI hits slightly more frequently when the Nationals are playing at home (23-10).
Now, the Diamondbacks aren’t as strong to this play at 38-34. However, when Arizona is playing as an underdog, NRFI is 23-14. And while Slade Cecconi isn’t exactly a pitcher I’m looking to back, he has held opponents scoreless in the first frame in six of his eight starts this season.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 18
WSH-ARI NRFI -105
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
