After an extended break thanks to the conference finals wrapping up early, the 2024 NBA Finals will finally get underway Thursday with the Dallas Mavericks going to TD Garden for Game 1 against the Boston Celtics. The Mavericks battled their way to the Finals as the No. 5 seed in the West, while the Celtics dominated the East as the league’s No. 1 overall seed. These teams met twice during the regular season with Boston winning both contests.
Luka Doncic, who has been battling knee issues for most of the postseason, is considered probable. Olivier-Maxence Prosper has been upgraded to questionable but might not feature in the rotation much even if he’s available. Kristaps Porzingis, who has missed most of the playoffs with a calf strain, is off the injury report and good to go for Game 1.
The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total sitting at 215.5. Boston is -230 on the moneyline while Dallas is +190.
Mavericks vs. Celtics, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks +6.5
These teams have been two of the best against the number all season. Dallas is a league-best 59-40 ATS while Boston isn’t too far behind at 48-43-5 ATS. The Celtics have faced higher spreads all season, and this is the lowest number they’ve got of the playoffs. The Mavericks are 11-6 ATS this postseason while the Celtics are 7-7 ATS. Dallas has been excellent in the underdog role on the road. The Mavericks are just 20-18 ATS as underdogs but that number improves a bit to 14-11 as the road dog. The Celtics are 26-21-2 ATS as the home favorite on the year.
The Celtics have generally been able to pull away from teams but they tend to get into a bad habit of chucking three-point shots even if those aren’t going in. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been a lockdown team defensively and that ability should travel in a hostile road environment. I think Boston does eventually take this game but give me Dallas to cover.
Over/Under: Over 215.5
Both the Mavericks and Celtics had a lot of lower totals in the postseason thanks to their defensive prowess. Dallas is 9-8 to the over so far in the playoffs, going over its totals in five of the last six games. Boston is 8-6 to the over in the playoffs, going over in five straight before hitting the under in the series finale against Indiana.
The Mavericks are averaging 107.9 points per game in the playoffs while the Celtics are scoring 111.4 points per game. The Mavs are allowing 103.9 points per game and the Celtics are surrendering 101.3 points per game, so defense should be on point. However, I don’t see this game being a blowout, which means the over should hit on a relatively lower number.