We’ve got ourselves a small seven-game featured MLB slate on Thursday. Fortunately, despite a lot of rain in tonight’s forecast, it seems like we’re going to get all seven in. Apologies to White Sox fans who would probably rather watch a thunderstorm at this point.
Let’s dive in and find some studs and values.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, $9,100 – You really can’t go wrong with any of the three pitchers priced above $9K on this slate, but I’ll side with the cheapest option. Lopez’s transition back to the rotation has been a stunning success, with the veteran RHP sporting a 1.73 ERA and a 2.72 FIP across his 57.1 innings of work. A 12.2% swinging strike rate isn’t too shabby, either. I’d expect Lopez to keep the good times rolling in this matchup with the Nationals. Washington has struggled to do much with the bats as of late, ranking dead-last in ISO (.100) and wRC+ (80) over the past 30 days. Yikes.
Value
Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves, $7,200 – I guess we’re looking at a low-scoring affair. Parker’s been a welcomed surprise for the Nationals in his rookie campaign, entering play on Thursday in possession of a 3.60 ERA and a 3.47 xERA. The 24-year-old has been even better when taking the mound at home, where he’s managed a 2.41 ERA and a 25.7% strikeout rate. Is picking on the Braves generally a good idea? No. However, injuries do take their toll. After being shutout in Boston on Wednesday, Atlanta is hitting a paltry .229 with an 83 wRC+ across the last two weeks.
INFIELD
Stud
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, $5,900 – As per usual, Devers is destroying right-handed pitching in 2024. In 149 plate appearances within the split, the former All-Star is slashing .307/.403/.667 with a .370 ISO and a 188 wRC+. He’s also on the heels of hitting a pair of home runs on Wednesday, so it’s safe to say he’s seeing the ball well. Jake Woodford ($5,800) gave up a .412 wOBA to opposing LHBs in 2023. I think we can all see where this is going.
Stud
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, $5,500 – Smith’s numbers against left-handers this season are staggering. In 65 plate appearances, the backstop is hitting .426 with a 256 wRC+. You read that correctly. It is not a typo. Now, Bailey Falter ($6,500) hasn’t pitched poorly in 2024, yet his 3.22 ERA is dwarfed by his 4.73 xERA. It seems regression to the mean is on the horizon. Why not tonight?
Value
Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies, $3,900 – After a terrible start to the season, Gorman is heating up. Dating back to May 10, the infielder is slashing .324/.407/.789 with a .500 wOBA and a 233 wRC+. That’s what 10 home runs in just 71 at-bats will do. Really, strikeouts remain Gorman’s only major flaw and that’s something Cal Quantrill ($6,000) isn’t really equipped to exploit. In fact, Quantrill sits in the 21st percentile in strikeout rate (17.8%).
Value
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, $3,600 – The Twins’ track record against the Yankees is well-known and full of sadness. However, the team might just have enough lefty bats to throw at Marcus Stroman ($8,400) this evening to find a sliver of success. Stroman has had his issues in opposite-hand matchups this season, allowing LHBs to combine for an inflated .380 wOBA. Meanwhile, Kirilloff sports a .201 ISO versus RHPs in 2024. Maybe he can run into a home run? Fingers crossed.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, $5,200 – Hernandez has always been at his best against LHPs. The veteran owns a 136 wRC+ within the split for his career and, in 2024, he’s managed a team-high six home runs and a .299 ISO. Really, the Dodgers in general are set up well to crush southpaws, as the team leads the National League in wRC+ versus left-handers (129). Might be a good day to stack some of Los Angeles’ bats.
Value
Joc Pederson, Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, $4,300 – There might not be a pitcher who has struggled more with LHBs in 2024 than Randy Vasquez ($5,600). The 25-year-old has faced 38 left-handed hitters this season and they’ve combined to slash .472/.500/.778 with a .549 wOBA. It’s a small sample, but a stunning one. Pederson is one of the league’s best lefty platoon bats and he’s managed a 156 wRC+ with the D-Backs. At this price, he might be the best asset on this evening’s slate.
Value
Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, $3,800 – Here’s the cheap bat to tack onto an admittedly expensive Dodgers stack. In 41 plate appearances against LHPs at the MLB level, Pages is hitting .359 with a 143 wRC+. He should be right in the middle of this dangerous lineup on Thursday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
