One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25367517/IMG_3461.PNG)
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25367521/IMG_3462.PNG)
SYSTEM: Under on total when home underdog did not play the previous day
This is a system we’ve talked about previously. Like last time, this play is coming off a slow week. But despite going 3-3 over the last seven days, this play is still a strong 16-10-1 over the last 30 days. On the season, it’s now 35-21-3.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25477358/Under.png)
Four games fit this system on Tuesday:
- PIT vs. LAD
- MIA vs. TB
- BOS vs. ATL
- OAK vs. SEA
The nod goes to MIA-TB with Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Pepiot chucking.
The Marlins have the seventh-lowest on-base percentage (.298) and wOBA (.296) against right-handed pitching, as well as the fourth-lowest ISO (.126). The Rays aren’t quite as bad when it comes to rankings vs. left-handed pitching, but the numbers are fairly similar. They’re bottom-10 in ISO (.122) against lefties and just outside the bottom 10 in wOBA (.302) and on-base percentage (.308).
Miami’s inefficient play within this matchup is more beneficial for Pepiot at this stage. He hasn’t fully bounced back since his IL stint, which resulted in a 6.17 ERA and 4.08 FIP in May. At least his FIP during that span indicates better days are ahead.
Luzardo is trending in the other direction. He posted three quality starts in four outings throughout May, and the one exception was a 5 2/3-inning, two-run performance.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 4
TB-MIA Total under 7.5 runs -125
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25408398/IMG_3691.PNG)
Refine your research with the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub!
From Consistency Sheets and Matchup Tools to System Tools and Player Splits, the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats hub features tools to help with your betting research!
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
SYSTEM: NRFI after road favorite did not play the previous day
This system sits at a cold 65% success rate (39-21) on the season. The play has only experienced a few notable dips along the way, with one coming over the last 30 days. But even during that stretch, this play hit 64% of the time (16-9).
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25477363/NRFI.png)
Four games fit this system on Tuesday — including three of the four listed in the system highlighted above:
- LAD @ PIT
- TB @ MIA
- ATL @ BOS
- SEA @ OAK
With the help of the new NRFI/YRFI tool in the Stats Hub, we see that Seattle is one of the best teams to NRFI and Oakland is one of the worst.
With Seattle 39-22 to NRFI, Mitch Spence is in position to build off his strong showing last time out. Only one of the Mariners’ first four hitters has an OBP greater than .290 against right-handed pitching and only one has an ISO greater than .160 (not the same hitter). Julio Rodriguez may be trending in the right direction, but Seattle still isn’t a fearsome lineup for right-handed pitching.
The tougher task comes for George Kirby, but he’s also coming off a strong showing. Assuming Oakland goes with the same four that’ve been leading off lately, he’ll get Abraham Toro first. He doesn’t K much against righties, but he also has just a .309 OBP. Miguel Andujar has done well against righties since joining the big-league club, but the level to which he’s popped off leaves room for regression. JJ Bleday and Brent Rooker are where things get tough. Yet, while Rooker has a .401 OBP against righties, he also has a 34% strikeout rate. Bleday provides pop and doesn’t strike out much, but having that strikeout potential coming up with a runner on gives Kirby extra room to navigate this group in the first frame.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 4
SEA-OAK NRFI -136
Watch The Sweat LIVE Saturdays and Sundays from 8 a.m. ET to 10 a.m. ET on DraftKings Network or by subscribing to the DraftKings YouTube Channel!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
