Yiber Diaz’s MLB career is off to a strong start, posting a 1.50 ERA through his first two starts. Both outings were quality starts in which each offense logged a total of four hits and one run. Through his first 12 big-league innings, the right-hander has punched out seven and walked three.
Opposite Diaz will be Cole Ragans, who just threw a scoreless frame in his MLB All-Star Game debut. The left-hander is a reminder that a pitcher’s win-loss record only means so much, as he’s logged a 3.16 ERA, 2.66 FIP and 10.9 K/9, yet he’s only 6-6 on the season.
Using the Team Splits tab in the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub, here’s a look at some of the numbers Kansas City has put up against right-handed pitching and Arizona has against lefties:
With Diaz only having seven strikeouts through 12 innings, KC’s 19.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching jumps out. Especially since that number drops all the way down to 16.9% when the Royals are at home.
As such, Diaz under 3.5 strikeouts at -125 is my favorite pitcher prop from this contest.
When it comes to the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
Any time we’re talking about the Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. has to come up. His already strong .243 ISO against right-handed pitching jumps up to .318 when he’s at home. As such, the odds on him logging over 1.5 total bases are set at -150. Not ideal, but still playable. If you’re looking to back Witt, this might be a good spot to take him to go over 2.5 hits+runs+RBIs at -110.
Looking elsewhere in the KC lineup, fellow American League All-Star Salvador Perez is +105 to go over 1.5 total bases. He’s got an even .200 ISO against right-handed pitching, but he’s actually been a bit better against them on the road (.222 vs. .181 at home).
Furthermore, he’s due. Perez has a .000 ISO against right-handed pitching at home in July across 23 at-bats. Getting a crack at a rookie, as good as Diaz has been, may be just what Perez needs.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
