March Madness is finally here, and the first week of the tournament will narrow the field from 68 teams to just 16. The first weekend can fly by, with teams emerging on the other side ready to head to the second weekend after a whirlwind first two games. And the most magical part of the month (aside from the leprechauns, of course) is that some of those teams come out of nowhere and shock the world with multiple major upsets as lower double-digit seeds.
We’ve seen it countless times — to name a few recent examples, we can look back on Oral Roberts in 2021, Saint Peter’s in 2022, and Princeton in 2023. While it can be hard to predict which double-digit seeds will heat up at the right time and reach the Sweet 16, here are our best picks for this upcoming tournament:
No. 11 New Mexico
The New Mexico Lobos won the Mountain West Conference championship and rank in the top 25 at KenPom. They open against a fairly weak at-large bid in Clemson, and while a win over Baylor in the Round of 32 would be no easy feat, this Lobos team is not one to back down. They rank eighth in adjusted tempo, whereas Baylor doesn’t crack the top 200. If they got moving and forced the Bears to play at an uncomfortable pace, I like New Mexico to make a run for the second weekend.
No. 11 Oregon
Oregon heated up toward the end of the season after getting center N’Faly Dante back from an injury that kept him out for the final months of 2023. They ended up winning the Pac-12 conference tournament with a win over No. 1 Arizona in the semifinal. The Ducks were a bubble team before this, but they’re getting looks at the exact right time. They go up against a South Carolina team in the first round that faced an ugly early exit from the SECs, and would likely face Creighton in the second round.
No. 11 NC State
Can NC State sustain the success they saw in the ACC Tournament? They began with no byes, and ripped off five straight wins — including victories over both Duke and UNC — to win the conference title. If they can keep that momentum going, NC State has a great shot at the second weekend. However, their path would not be easy, with Texas Tech and likely Kentucky in their way.
No. 12 McNeese
The McNeese State Cowboys won 30 games this season, a feat pulled off by very few teams. They also have an offense that shot 48.3% from the field (16th in the nation) and 39.4% from the perimeter (4th in the nation), and a defense that held opponents to 64 points per game (10th in the nation). They face an over-seeded Gonzaga in the first round before moving onto either an injured Kansas or a 13th-seeded Samford in the second.
No. 13 Samford
Samford takes on a very injured, flailing Kansas team that has lost four of its last five games in the first round before either facing an overranked Gonzaga team or No. 12 McNeese in the second round. Samford put up 84.3 points per game this season (6th in the nation) and shot 48.9% from the field (9th in the nation).