The No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers will take on the winner of the No. 16 play-in game between the Montana State Bobcats and Grambling State Tigers in the First Round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Below we’ll preview both teams, including analysis and key stats while also providing our prediction.
This Purdue team enters the tournament looking to erase the narrative that has followed them since their historic first-round upset in last year’s March Madness. The loss to Fairleigh Dickinson exposed the Boilermakers’ shortcomings, and the team is still centered around big man Zach Edey, who leads the team with 24.2 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. Will he have enough support this year to get past the first weekend? They fell short in the Big Ten semifinal against Wisconsin, failing to defend last year’s conference title.
Montana State has made it to the Big Dance for a third straight year and did so even after finishing the regular season with a sub-.500 record. The Big Sky Tournament champions were mostly a solid shooting team, finishing the season shooting 53.9% in eFG% and 36.4% from three. Defensively, they had a solid turnover rate at 18.6% and that was bolstered by Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year Robert Ford III.
Grambling State is in the Big Dance for the very first time and booked its reservation by winning the SWAC Tournament. GSU takes its time on offense with a slow tempo, averaging 18.8 seconds per offensive possession. That strategy was effective in helping the Tigers find the right shots from downtown in conference play as they ended up leading the SWAC in three-point shooting at 36%.
Purdue vs. Grambling State winner pick
You generally are going to pick the No. 1 seed to advance in the first round of the 2024 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. That shouldn’t change for this game, but you’ll at least want to take a second to think about it. Purdue is in danger of a quick exit, and while it probably won’t happen on Friday, their opponent could be an intriguing spread bet at +26 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.