The Atlanta Braves had the most wins of any MLB team in the regular season, but find themselves just two losses away from having their season come to an end and look to Max Fried for a bid start pivotal Game Two at home against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday.
Fried is making his first start on the mound since September 21 due to a blister with his lone tune up being an intra-squad scrimmage during the Wild Card round of the playoffs in which he threw 75 pitches.
When Fried has been available this season he has been sharp with a 2.55 ERA and 3.14 fielding independent in 14 starts, allowing three runs or fewer in 12 of those starts, but many of Fried’s issues came at home this season.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (-162, 8)
Fried has a 3.86 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings surrendered this season and since July 1, the Braves are 11th in bullpen ERA with a 4.06 ERA.
The upper-hand in the bullpen battle belongs to the Phillies, who are third in the league in this category with a 3.08 ERA and should not need to be heavily taxed with Zack Wheeler getting the start.
While going against a Braves lineup that led the league in runs, home runs, and on-base percentage is always a challenge, Wheeler had success in his three starts against Atlanta with one or zero runs allowed in two of his three starts against them and the team was 2-1 in those starts with the lone loss coming in an extra-inning game.
Overall, Wheeler has a 3.61 ERA but just a 3.15 fielding independent with allowing only 1.8 walks and 0.9 home runs per nine innings to go with 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and has been at his best on the road with a 3.16 road ERA compared to a 4.13 ERA at home.
While the Braves lineup has been the best in the league at scoring runs all season, the Phillies are averaging 5.75 runs per game since the start of August and have pounded the most home runs per game of any MLB team in this span with over 1.9 home runs per game.
With the Phillies lineup hitting the way it has lately and Wheeler being one of the few pitchers in the league that can shut down the Braves, the Phillies will look to close out the series at home after sweeping both games in Atlanta.
The Play: Phillies +136
