As we approach the final few weeks of the 2023-24 college basketball regular season, the NCAA Tournament bracket looms large for every team. While some, like UConn and Purdue, have effectively locked in a spot come March, others are right on the bubble. When every game matters, the pressure is on. We take a look at how Wednesday’s games affected bubble teams’ chances to go dancing next month.
For reference where teams currently stand in the eyes of bracketology experts, we’ll use the latest brackets of Dominic Lese of Bracketometry.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.
Home team in italics
Alabama 98, Florida 93 (OT)
Alabama was able to maintain its grip at the top of the SEC standings by gutting out an overtime victory over Florida on Wednesday. The Tide have built themselves a solid resume throughout SEC play and could be a potential two-seed in the NCAA Tournament if they continue to stack wins.
As for Florida, the Gators are considered safely in at the moment as victories over Kentucky and Auburn in SEC play strengthened their resume. While disappointing, a close overtime loss to the first-place team doesn’t necessarily hurt them. They have upcoming games against struggling opponents in Vanderbilt and Missouri and if they slip up in one of those, they’ll drop back towards bubble territory.
LSU 75, Kentucky 74
Kentucky got fell at LSU in heartbreaking fashion on Wednesday, getting clipped by a Tyrell Ward putback right at the buzzer. This constituted as a Quad 2 loss for the Wildcats and was another frustrating setback in what has been an inconsistent month for Calipari’s team.
Despite this, UK isn’t a bubble team just yet. The Cats have top 30 rankings in both KenPom and NET and both Lese and Lunardi had them as high as a five-seed in their most recent brackets. They have tough matchups against Alabama and Mississippi State coming up and if they lose both, then it will be time to have a conversation about the men from Lexington.
Mississippi State 83, Ole Miss 71
The second round of this year’s hoops Egg Bowl went to Mississippi State as it handled Ole Miss in an impressive 12-point home victory on Wednesday. The Bulldogs are now 4-0 against Quad 2 opponents and with four straight victories, they are gradually pulling away from bubble territory.
As for their rivals from Oxford, Ole Miss is now a combined 4-7 in Quad 1/2 games. The Rebels are squarely on the bubble and while they are on the right side of it in the eyes of experts, there’s a possibility they could be heading to Dayton for the First Four.
Providence 79, Xavier 75
Providence helped its own cause on Wednesday with a close road victory over Xavier, picking up its fifth Quad 1 win of the season. After struggling in Big East action early, the Friars are rolling on a three-game win streak and could get off the bubble with games against Marquette, Villanova, and UConn coming up.
New Mexico 68, Colorado State 66
We got another big result of consequence out of the Mountain West with New Mexico edging Colorado State by two at home. The Lobos pulled back to within one game of Utah State for first place in the league while the Rams are now in a two-game hole.
Both teams are top 30 in both KenPom and NET metrics and currently in the big dance according to Lese and Lunardi. New Mexico was being considered as one of the last eight teams to get a hypothetical bid, but it should now be safe with a fourth Quad 1 win in a tough conference like the MWC.