We have three Game 3s tonight. After dominating Minnesota during the regular season, Phoenix finds themselves down 0-2. At least they return home tonight. The other two series had the road team get the split, and now they have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd, which will no doubt be raucous. Tim Hardaway Jr. is out. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) has been out for the last five games and will miss tonight’s game. Kawhi Leonard ($7,800), Khris Middleton ($7,400), Daniel Gafford ($4,700), Kyle Anderson ($3,600) and Grayson Allen ($5,000) are questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has IND -6 over MIL at home. The total is 223. DAL is -45. at home over LAC. The total is 212.5. PHO is -5 at home over MIN. The total is 207.5. During the regular season, IND was 32-20 at home while MIL was 18-22 on the road. DAL was 25-16 at home while LAC was 26-15 on the road. PHO was 25-16 at home while MIN was 26-15 on the road. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers ($9,300) – Doncic is the most expensive player on the slate, has the highest projection by a wide margin and will likely be one of the most rostered players. And I will be fading him. What could go wrong?
Doncic is at home and likely has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He is just so expensive and I think that not only are there players who could come close to matching him, but the Clippers have done a relatively good job on him all season. In five meetings this season, he’s gone for 58, 61.75, 56.25, 46.25 and 65 DKFP. Those are good numbers, but are they have-to-have-it numbers when considering price? Nyet.
Lillard will likely be without Giannis again while Middleton could be out or limited. The offensive onus will be on Lillard. In Game 1, he scored 35 points in the first half and was on his way to a monster game, but was throttled back in the second half due to not being needed. In Game 2, Indiana made some adjustments, but Lillard still went for 34 points and 51 DKFP. This game should be an up-and-down affair, as the Pacers are at home, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies.
It’s not out of the question that both Doncic and Lillard finish in the 50 to 60 DKFP range. At $2,400 cheaper and likely half the ownership, it’s Dame Time for me.
Other Options – Luka Doncic ($11,700), Kyrie Irving ($8,400), James Harden ($8,000), Bradley Beal ($6,400)
Value
Patrick Beverley, Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers ($4,700) – Beverley has started and played 37 and 34 minutes in the first two games of the series. He’s out there for his defensive prowess, so the playing time should be stable. Beverley is a low-usage player, often garnering a number in the single digits, but he chips in a little something something in every category. That doesn’t mean he can’t access a ceiling game if things break right. A few weeks ago, he went for 20 points, 10 rebounds and three assists in 26 minutes against the Celtics, good for 40.5 DKFP, then followed that up with 13 points, eight rebounds, six assists and a steal in 30 minutes against Orlando, good for 35.5 DKFP. He contributed 20 and 29.75 DKFP in the first two games, and will likely end up in the 20s, but Lloyd Christmas could make an appearance.
Other Options – Mike Conley ($5,500), Aaron Nesmith ($5,100), Russell Westbrook ($5,000), Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,100)
Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($8,300) – Siakam has been great in this series, going for 62.75 DKFP in both contests! The usage rate has been 37.7 and 40.3 percent. With no Giannis for Milwaukee, he’s been able to feast. In addition, he’s been Giannis-esque in transition, and I’d expect the pace to be fast in this one with Indiana back at home. It’s tough to envision Siakam putting up another 60-burger, but it’s hard to fade considering Giannis likely won’t play, the Pacers are at home and we haven’t seen adjustments from Doc Rivers to neutralize him.
Other Options – Bobby Portis ($6,900)
Value
Derrick Jones Jr., Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers ($3,600) – Jones only played 18 minutes in Game 1 and the Mavericks lost. He played 33 minutes in Game 2 and Dallas won. Coincidence? I think not.
I kid I kid. He’s obviously not the only reason Dallas was able to tie up the series, but he is an integral piece, especially due to his defensive versatility and ability to hound and harass Westbrook, Harden, Kawhi and PG.
He is a low-usage player, so the DKFP will come on the defensive end and buckets in transition or off-cuts. Role players usually play better at home and, in two home games against the Clippers this season, Jones played 29 and 39 minutes, putting up 36 and 32.75 DKFP. I’m not saying that he’s going to put up 30 tonight, but all things are possible.
Other Options – Royce O’Neale ($4,300) if Allen is out, Maxi Kleber ($3,500), Obi Toppin ($3,400)
Center
Stud
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($6,500) – Yes, I like this game environment the best tonight! But it’s not just about that, as Myles has been very good in this series. He put up 35 and 47.25 DKFP while attempting 10 and 12 shots, converting all six from downtown and doing the normal business on the defensive end. He should get plenty of good looks once again, as Brook Lopez won’t be challenging too many of his shots.
Other Options – Rudy Gobert ($7,200), Jusuf Nurkic ($6,200), Ivica Zubac ($6,000)
Value
Maxi Kleber, Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers ($3,500) – Kleber has played 27 and 28 minutes in the first two games because he’s able to space the floor. He’s only contributed 17.5 and 12.75 DKFP, but he does have 30 DKFP upside if he gets the shots and knocks them down. That said, this is more of a floor/price play, as he will likely score double-digit DKFP at under $4K.
Other Options – P. J. Washington ($5,600), Brook Lopez ($5,400)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
