After storming into Houston and taking the first two games of this ALCS, the Texas Rangers now return home looking to put one more nail in the coffin of the arch-rival Astros in Game 3 on Wednesday night. First pitch from Globe Life Park is set for 8:07 p.m. ET. Houston will hand the ball to righty Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) as they hope to avoid falling into a 3-0 hole, while Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77) makes his return from a shoulder injury to start for Texas.
The Rangers enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Astros at +110. The run total is set at 9.
Astros vs. Rangers ALCS Game 3 picks: Wednesday, October 18
Injury report
Astros
N/A
Rangers
N/A
Starting pitchers
Cristian Javier vs. Max Scherzer
Maybe Javier just feels more comfortable in the fall. A breakout star in 2022, the righty looked lost for much of this summer, with a 5.79 ERA in June, a 6.86 mark in July and a 6.17 mark in August. His four-seam fastball, so dominant last year, was getting knocked around, and he would lose track of the strike zone for starts at a time. But he started to show signs of turning things around in September — striking out 11 over five one-run innings against the Orioles on September 20, blanking the Diamondbacks over six innings on October 1 — and he was spectacular in Game 3 of the ALDS, striking out nine while allowing just one hit (albeit with five walks) over five scoreless innings in a win over the Twins. Combined with his sensational effort last October, Javier has now run his postseason scoreless streak to 16.1 innings, getting hot at exactly the right time for an Astros team that’s not overflowing with starting pitching depth. It’s worth noting that Javier’s one previous start against Texas this season went terribly, with eight runs on nine hits allowed in just 4.1 innings of work. Again, though, that was July Javier, and he looks like a totally new man right now.
Despite not having seen game action since Sept. 12, Scherzer apparently feels good enough — and has gotten enough work in via bullpens and simulated games over the past couple of weeks — to convince Bruce Bochy to give him the ball in the most important game of the Rangers’ season so far. You have to admire the toughness, and certainly there’s no doubting Scherzer’s body of work. But what exactly he’ll have in the tank, at age 39 and coming off a serious shoulder strain, remains very much up in the air. Overall, Scherzer gave Texas more or less what they were hoping for when they acquired him from the Mets at the trade deadline, with a 3.20 ERA over eight starts — five of which featured two or fewer runs allowed. His worst start as a Ranger, however, just happened to come against the Astros, who lit him up for seven runs on six hits (including three homers) in a blowout loss back on Sept. 6. Scherzer insists his body is fine, telling reporters “I’m ready to go….I feel normal,” but itremains to be seen whether that will remain true under the bright lights. He’ll also be on a bit of a pitch count, only getting up to 69 pitches in a simulated game last week, so more could be asked of a Texas bullpen that’s been great in October but struggled in the regular season.
Over/Under pick
We’ve seen totals of two and nine in this series so far, and I’m banking on something closer to the latter in Game 3 tonight. As much as I admire the grittiness (and love the theater) of Scherzer’s return, I’m skeptical about just how effective he’ll be, especially against an Astros lineup that’s going to be desperate right out of the gates and got off some very good swings against the righty the last time they saw him. There’s also the matter of Texas’ bullpen: The trio of Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc have been money for Bochy thus far, but the Rangers might have to dig a bit deeper down the hierarchy tonight given Scherzer’s pitch count. Combine that with Javier going up against a locked-in Texas lineup that hit him hard in their one prior meeting this season, and I’ll take the over.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
There are just too many question marks surrounding Scherzer for me to back the Rangers with so little juice on the moneyline. Houston is the defending World Series champion for a reason — they know how to find ways to win in October, and I’d much rather back them at plus odds in this spot.
Pick: Astros +110
